Politics, politics, politics

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Markets respond to risks and shocks.

It's not an exceptional circumstance until an upward change happens in the near future - which is by no means highly probably or largely within our control.
It's an exceptional action creating effects.

The favourable deal analogy pretty much destroyed your point, because a favourable deal is ultimately under the control of an external factor. Ergo, a non favourable deal is at least as likely - meaning you could not dismiss the current economic state as almost certainly being temporary.

We were incredibly stable, the economy was looking good.

We threw that stability out the window, investment doesnt like this.

We dont know what the "new" stability will look like at this point - the economy reflects this exceptional circumstance.

In time things will settle, and once we know the terms of a post brexit UK then the markets will level out appropriately. This could be good, it could be bad - we have no idea at this point.

I am not saying it WILL improve. It could well get worse. I am saying how it is now? Reflects only now.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

I can never tell if your being sarcastic.

But today's vote upheld democracy - which is what many Leavers said was a key factor.
(And should be a key factor for everyone)

People had a clear choice in a referendum stay in or leave the EU. We had a long and hard project fear to warn us about leaving before the vote and the country still voted leave.

The politicians have let themselves down, if you look through history of different countries and different freedom struggles it always goes down a certain path when people are undermined. I obviously never got involved in the IRA but I always supported their principles. I support those who want freedom from the EU and to be masters of their own destiny.

I will not got involved in any struggle or battle, I am to old and ill. But I will support them in mind. One wonders whether as sad as the loss of human life is whether Thomas Alexander Mair will in future will be seen as a freedom fighter or a murderer. I will cast no aspirations on the subject.

To reiterate I have always supported people all around the world who democratically voted for something and then when their governments try to keep them down and go against their wishes I have always been saddened by what happened next but understood that the public have a right to expect their leaders do what they voted for. What might be coming is sad but the history of the world shows us is necessary.

 

[monkeybarry]

We were incredibly stable, the economy was looking good.

We threw that stability out the window, investment doesnt like this.

We dont know what the "new" stability will look like at this point - the economy reflects this exceptional circumstance.

In time things will settle, and once we know the terms of a post brexit UK then the markets will level out appropriately. This could be good, it could be bad - we have no idea at this point.

I am not saying it WILL improve. It could well get worse. I am saying how it is now? Reflects only now.

Agreed.
Which is why it's not possible to say that its wrong to say the current situation is not representative of the position after we are out.
I think we are actually arguing similar points, but from different angles. That never happens around here...... but Lamela is definitely better than.....

 

[SpurMeUp]

We are leaving. Nobody knows what that will actually look like. This breeds uncertainty. This uncertainty effects investment and everything else.

While we are mid - exit this is entirely expected. And this is not indicative of a post Brexit status.

To argue as if the current state of things is in any way indicative of how things will be once we are out is, IMO, simply wrong.

What are you basing the belief that there will be bounce upwards upon? What will occur in the new Brexit state to boost growth and trade? The reason all investment into car production has been cut to a quarter of what it was is simple, post Brexit these companies may not be able to produce cars in the UK, they may have to move into the customs union to avoid WTO 10% tariffs. If that is the case, it won't makes things better economically, but worse.

I take your point that no one knows what will actually happen, but there are some things that you can model. A hard brexit to wto terms for example. To pretend everything is peachy, when the UK is suffering now is not so much stiff upper lip, but burying your head in the sand.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Quite right. But just to add a favourable deal (as in one better than being members of EU gives us) is complete fantasy. I can't believe that after everything has transpired since the vote... people still believe this.
I have more of a chance of a threesome with Beyonce and Shakira

They would ruin you.

 

[DTA]

They would ruin you.

Quite possibly. But it would be rude not to

 

[r-u-s-x]

People had a clear choice in a referendum stay in or leave the EU. We had a long and hard project fear to warn us about leaving before the vote and the country still voted leave.

The politicians have let themselves down, if you look through history of different countries and different freedom struggles it always goes down a certain path when people are undermined. I obviously never got involved in the IRA but I always supported their principles. I support those who want freedom from the EU and to be masters of their own destiny.

I will not got involved in any struggle or battle, I am to old and ill. But I will support them in mind. One wonders whether as sad as the loss of human life is whether Thomas Alexander Mair will in future will be seen as a freedom fighter or a murderer. I will cast no aspirations on the subject.

To reiterate I have always supported people all around the world who democratically voted for something and then when their governments try to keep them down and go against their wishes I have always been saddened by what happened next but understood that the public have a right to expect their leaders do what they voted for. What might be coming is sad but the history of the world shows us is necessary.

In your opinion what was todays vote about? Policy not hyperbole

 

[Rorschach]

They would ruin you.

Better to burn out than to fade away.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Quite possibly. But it would be rude not to

Haha. It'd be worth finding out...

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

In your opinion what was todays vote about? Policy not hyperbole

People with their own agendas not listening to how people voted. The are some including miss Lucas in Brighton who have said they will do anything to stop Brexit. Ken Clarke is another, no deal we get from the EU will be good enough for them they have admitted they are just trying every trick to stop it.

I would go for a hard brexit, giving our friends in Ireland a deal for no border as we should look for good relations with them. I would give the right to stay here for all members of the EU but they then follow our laws.

I would finish by doing a poo in a box and sending it to Brussels with a couple of euros. Telling them that is all they are getting from us.

This country will then find its own path, if you look how we vote in elections we are a liberal country with liberal values in many ways. This country will not lurch to the right the public will not allow it. The party to form a government will be the one that is positive and tolerant more so then the other.

I enjoy the debate with you and will respond tomorrow to any further questions, i swam 50 lengths of my local swimming pool today and am fcuked.

 

[r-u-s-x]

People with their own agendas not listening to how people voted. The are some including miss Lucas in Brighton who have said they will do anything to stop Brexit. Ken Clarke is another, no deal we get from the EU will be good enough for them they have admitted they are just trying every trick to stop it.

I would go for a hard brexit, giving our friends in Ireland a deal for no border as we should look for good relations with them. I would give the right to stay here for all members of the EU but they then follow our laws.

I would finish by doing a poo in a box and sending it to Brussels with a couple of euros. Telling them that is all they are getting from us.

This country will then find its own path, if you look how we vote in elections we are a liberal country with liberal values in many ways. This country will not lurch to the right the public will not allow it. The party to form a government will be the one that is positive and tolerant more so then the other.

I enjoy the debate with you and will respond tomorrow to any further questions, i swam 50 lengths of my local swimming pool today and am fcuked.

I thought it was giving parliament sovereignty, which was one of the key parts of the Brexit vote.

Ps Hard Brexit was not on the ballet box, this has been added since even fararge was for Norway option

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

I thought it was giving parliament sovereignty, which was one of the key parts of the Brexit vote.

Ps Hard Brexit was not on the ballet box, this has been added since even fararge was for Norway option

On domestic issues but Brexit is bigger then that and the public should be listened to. To many of our MPs want to go and get on the EU gravy train. We need a cull and a new lot who actually start doing what the public want instead of thinking they can lose 3 elections and go and get a job in Brussels like Kinnock.

 

[the dza]

People with their own agendas not listening to how people voted. The are some including miss Lucas in Brighton who have said they will do anything to stop Brexit. Ken Clarke is another, no deal we get from the EU will be good enough for them they have admitted they are just trying every trick to stop it.

That may be true, but it's Parliament as a whole who will vote on it, and imo Parliament as a whole will respect the referendum result in that we will leave the EU.

Many who voted leave have continuously said that the only thing on the ballot paper was leave or remain. That's fine, but it doesn't only apply to a 'no deal/hard' Brexit, it applies to a Norway type 'soft' Brexit too -- we still leave, it's just on different terms. But as long as we "leave", then the referendum result is abided by.

In hindsight, the referendum choice was too simple, too binary. There should have been different options to vote on, maybe a couple of rounds of voting to whittle down the choices to give the government a much clearer final instruction and a mandate for a more specific type of Brexit. But that didn't happen, so we're left with this mess.

 

[monkeybarry]

@Danishfurniturelover
I recommend listening to Dominic Grieve (see Milo link on previous page) - you will hear that the amendment has nothing to do with stopping Brexit and we should all be proud this amendment happened (and ashamed of 304 MPs)

 

[r-u-s-x]

On domestic issues but Brexit is bigger then that and the public should be listened to. To many of our MPs want to go and get on the EU gravy train. We need a cull and a new lot who actually start doing what the public want instead of thinking they can lose 3 elections and go and get a job in Brussels like Kinnock.

Parliament is only sovereign on domestic issues?

Personally mob rule scares me and democracy by referendum also, most people I know care for issues is only surpassed by their knowledge on them.

 

[the dza]

Tory MPs talking about de-selecting their own, I thought it was just the "Stalinist" Left that did that!

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Parliament is only sovereign on domestic issues?

Personally mob rule scares me and democracy by referendum also, most people I know care for issues is only surpassed by their knowledge on them.

Why would democracy by referendum scare you? is it because you did not get the result you wanted?

Being opposed to Brexit is your right, but the country voted and that vote should be respected. It scares me what happens when politicans think they can do what they want and not what the country voted for, I think that is a slippery slope.

The referendum on the EU was a massive event, something not to be taken lightly. It is bigger then little domestic issues on internal running of a country. It was about deciding that we wished to be free from the EU. The referendum was straight forward, do you want to stay in the EU or leave. The was a massive project fear campaign which is still on going but despite this people voted out, they may have voted out for different reasons but they voted out.

I have said many times on here I do not think Brexit will happen, the are so many in the establishment the are so many in the media and law professions who do not want it, they said they wanted to kick it into the long grass, they said after ramping up project fear that we should have a second vote. They will not allow it, personally I think that is a shame but I am also worried because history shows us what happens when you go against the will of the people in countries.

What is saddest for me is a lot seem to be against it because they think it is a tory or right wing issue, I have come across many who seem opposed to it because they think it is racist or some sort of tory plot. But we are more liberal then the rest of Europe, see the french and the disgusting ban they want on the muslim head scarf or the Spanish and their bull fighting, or how the Italians treat their immigrants. If we followed those countries if we ever leave, then the party who did that would be chucked out at the next election.

Brexit if it ever happened would not only be the best thing to happen to this country it could act as a leader to the rest of Europe at how to behave.

 

[monkeybarry]

Tory MPs talking about de-selecting their own, I thought it was just the "Stalinist" Left that did that!

Is this another good time to remind people I said we weren't ready for the referendum due to the poor quality and immaturity of our political set up?
Or would that just be gloating?

 

[r-u-s-x]

Why would democracy by referendum scare you? is it because you did not get the result you wanted?

The Brexit vote has nothing to do with this view, this pretty much sums up why

Being opposed to Brexit is your right, but the country voted and that vote should be respected. It scares me what happens when politicans think they can do what they want and not what the country voted for, I think that is a slippery slope.

not going to argue too much on this as the point has been made many times and you either agree or not but a lot of people were voting for Norwegian type Brexit, there was no consensus pre vote that Brexit meant hard Brexit this has only become the dogma post vote.

The referendum on the EU was a massive event, something not to be taken lightly. It is bigger then little domestic issues on internal running of a country. It was about deciding that we wished to be free from the EU. The referendum was straight forward, do you want to stay in the EU or leave. The was a massive project fear campaign which is still on going but despite this people voted out, they may have voted out for different reasons but they voted out.

I have said many times on here I do not think Brexit will happen, the are so many in the establishment the are so many in the media and law professions who do not want it, they said they wanted to kick it into the long grass, they said after ramping up project fear that we should have a second vote. They will not allow it, personally I think that is a shame but I am also worried because history shows us what happens when you go against the will of the people in countries.

What is saddest for me is a lot seem to be against it because they think it is a tory or right wing issue, I have come across many who seem opposed to it because they think it is racist or some sort of tory plot. But we are more liberal then the rest of Europe, see the french and the disgusting ban they want on the muslim head scarf or the Spanish and their bull fighting, or how the Italians treat their immigrants. If we followed those countries if we ever leave, then the party who did that would be chucked out at the next election.

Brexit if it ever happened would not only be the best thing to happen to this country it could act as a leader to the rest of Europe at how to behave.[/QUOTE]

Thats a very nice way to look at things but I don't see how it relates to yesterdays vote which was essentially ensuring Parliament was sovereign rather than Government, I thought that was also a main part of the brexit vote, returning sovereignty to Parliament.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

What are you basing the belief that there will be bounce upwards upon? What will occur in the new Brexit state to boost growth and trade? The reason all investment into car production has been cut to a quarter of what it was is simple, post Brexit these companies may not be able to produce cars in the UK, they may have to move into the customs union to avoid WTO 10% tariffs. If that is the case, it won't makes things better economically, but worse.

I take your point that no one knows what will actually happen, but there are some things that you can model. A hard brexit to wto terms for example. To pretend everything is peachy, when the UK is suffering now is not so much stiff upper lip, but burying your head in the sand.

I have, at no point, expressed a belief in an upwards bounce.

I have, consistently, expressed the belief that the state of the economy at this time is indicative only of the state of things at this time.

Which is a messy period between knowing that change is coming, but not knowing what that change is. Investment kryptonite.

It is not an indicator of the future. The future is completely up in the air, which is why the economy looks like it does now.

For example, we come out of this with a soft brexit deal, keep our financial passport and free trading rights - will the economy stay as it is or improve?

Conversely, we come out with a hard brexit/cliff edge and the obvious period of chaos afterwards, will the economy stay as it is now or get worse?

So, your "effects of Brexit" post - what does it prove? Nothing. If anything it just confirms what we all expected to happen. It says absolutely nothing of the future, and just confirms the obvious int he present.