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Politics, politics, politics

@scaramanga okay you are right, the economic think tank are wrong. So are 95% of economists. What you can not deny is that we are seeing effects of Brexit now. Look at the data on investment into the UK for car production. Down from more than a billion pa to a quarter of that. That's not hypothetical, its real. And the Chancellor's 'head room' has gone. In other words, the cash we had stashed away for a rainy day is no more. The economy has tanked post Brexit whereas the EU economies have grown considerably. Again that is real not hypothetical. Food, flights, anything imported costs people more. Inflation is at 3%. These are real effects or are they someone else's miscalculation too? We have to be balanced and admit Brexit is not all rosy otherwise you just look deluded and biased. Your (already strong) arguements would be stronger if you could be more balanced (no doubt me too!).

Thatcherist free hand of the market notions are a little out dated don't you think? The worlds free market banking and lending infrastructure was bailed out only a few years ago. The free market without some intervention doesn't work. How would a consumer discern if a product came from a polluting factory to make that choice? It's simply nonsense. Free market competition and free trade are important, but some regulation is vital. The banking crisis calamity shows that. EU regulation actually facilitates freer trade while ensuring things like pollution are controlled. It also helps balance peoples rights. Unfortunately, the UK isn't really aware of this. Our impression is of jonny foreigner bureaucrats putting in place needless red tape. It's more nuanced than than, and actually a lot more positive, if you can be bothered to get past the stereotype.

When you say "essentially forcing us", surely its forcing you or it isn't? Are you suggesting we don't have medical standards and a free market determines what's healthy!? These medical regs don't apply to the construction sector so its your choice whether to apply medical standards for these products is it not? I don't know enough to comment.
 
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scaramanga said:
Read back a couple of pages for my discussion with @r-u-s-x01 - it's full of loopholes that are far too easy to exploit. Plus, the enforced free movement of labour means that if we were to enforce it, we'd have to have an ID card system.
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How would new Brexit-happy work migrants be kept in check? How do we ensure people are sent home after working post Brexit, how does it differ? Wouldn't the same ID concerns persist? Dismissing the new bureaucracy required to process and get people in and out post Brexit is churlish. At the moment we have a free supply and demand type system.

The EU immigration laws - that we don't use - gives a premise from which to control some of the EU migration. Some other countries enforce it so it must have some value, we don't. Maybe we'd need id cards or maybe we'd need another intervention to make it work. It may not be perfect (as I'm sure its not in other countries too) but at least we would be doing something constructive to put the brakes on. I'm not sure that post Brexit we'll see a marked difference except there will be more red tape than there is now.
 
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nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Except vote somebody else in at the next election, which is never that far off. A very direct and decisive action the public can take.

Which should really do much to keep the incumbent government on their toes.

I think its fair to say that they have hidden behind the EU for a long time, become complacent. That will change.

E]

@nayimfromthehalfwayline
Sadly the electorate vote has little influence, it's the quality of the opposition and ability to meet public need that does. Two poor choices is not democracy, it's admin.
Collective bargaining is far more valuable imho.

But it is also a massive false equivalency - there are hundreds of thousands of decision making that you don't vote for, from lobyists to SPADS to civil servants.
And then only really get challenged if the Govts personal interests are affected and they cannot use it to their advantage.

I'm no huge fan of the EU or its set up - but I'm a damn sight happier with it than the blunt tool we call a democratic instrument.

As far as complancey and change goes - why? The Tories are wrapping up the system to do as they please.
And who are they accountable to? The British public? The British public are about as subservient as it gets. And if there is a threat of unrest, the press will divert attention quickly anyway.
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scaramanga said:
Total goods and services exports to the EU are 14% of the UK's overall economy. So you're predicting a 45% reduction in trade with the EU over what, in most cases, is a 1-2% tariff cost. That's a massive, massive drop and doesn't seem to be grounded in any realistic assumptions.
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When we are talking about international trade, I think that it is a little disingenuous to quote a figure that includes internal markets. 43% of exports in goods and services went to the EU in 2016. The figure would be higher if we included exports through EU FTAs which we also stand to lose access to.

This chart of our exports against distance from the UK. Geography matters in international trade.

IMG_20170801_171327.jpg


You are also ignoring the non-tariff barrier cost which will be the real block to trade with the EU should we leave the Single Market and Customs Union.
 
SpurMeUp said:
@scaramanga okay you are right, the economic think tank are wrong. So are 95% of economists. What you can not deny is that we are seeing effects of Brexit now. Look at the data on investment into the UK for car production. Down from more than a billion pa to a quarter of that. That's not hypothetical, its real. And the Chancellor's 'head room' has gone. In other words, the cash we had stashed away for a rainy day is no more. The economy has tanked post Brexit whereas the EU economies have grown considerably. Again that is real not hypothetical. Food, flights, anything imported costs people more. Inflation is at 3%. These are real effects or are they someone else's miscalculation too? We have to be balanced and admit Brexit is not all rosy otherwise you just look deluded and biased. Your (already strong) arguements would be stronger if you could be more balanced (no doubt me too!).
Click to expand...

We are leaving. Nobody knows what that will actually look like. This breeds uncertainty. This uncertainty effects investment and everything else.

While we are mid - exit this is entirely expected. And this is not indicative of a post Brexit status.

To argue as if the current state of things is in any way indicative of how things will be once we are out is, IMO, simply wrong.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
We are leaving. Nobody knows what that will actually look like. This breeds uncertainty. This uncertainty effects investment and everything else.

While we are mid - exit this is entirely expected. And this is not indicative of a post Brexit status.

To argue as if the current state of things is in any way indicative of how things will be once we are out is, IMO, simply wrong.
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No body knows. Ok. But people who study this brick work in the field etc etc can make educated predictions... which should be given credence. Where as you, I and David (no like impact assessments no like homework) Davis have less basis to be listened to.
 
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milo said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/941023857259008002
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1. Very surprised that got through
2. Good day for democracy - both curtailing that power and a Tory MP doing it
3. One more strike could see this Govt fall. After the shambles of David Davies last week the cloak of their power grab and their lack of respect for the electorate is being exposed.

4.....and this is key....the moment when Reese Mogg was pwned (yeah, I'm going old skool) needs a YouTube mix video
 
DTA said:
No body knows. Ok. But people who study this brick work in the field etc etc can make educated predictions... which should be given credents Where as you, I and David (no like impact assessments no like homework) Davis have less basis to be listened to.
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No no no, you don't listen to experts.....I saw the answers on t'internet....it's fiiiiine
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
We are leaving. Nobody knows what that will actually look like. This breeds uncertainty. This uncertainty effects investment and everything else.

While we are mid - exit this is entirely expected. And this is not indicative of a post Brexit status.

To argue as if the current state of things is in any way indicative of how things will be once we are out is, IMO, simply wrong.
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You may well be right.
But to dismiss it as irrelevant is foolish and naive.
 
It is indicative only of the current. Which is an exceptional situation. I see nothing to suggest its a long term situation.

Put it this way, a favourable deal evolves for us over the next year - do you think the economy will stay as it is now?
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
It is indicative only of the current. Which is an exceptional situation. I see nothing to suggest its a long term situation.

Put it this way, a favourable deal evolves for us over the next year - do you think the economy will stay as it is now?
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Markets respond to risks and shocks.

It's not an exceptional circumstance until an upward change happens in the near future - which is by no means highly probably or largely within our control.
It's an exceptional action creating effects.

The favourable deal analogy pretty much destroyed your point, because a favourable deal is ultimately under the control of an external factor. Ergo, a non favourable deal is at least as likely - meaning you could not dismiss the current economic state as almost certainly being temporary.
 
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So they voted down the deal.

The politicans went against the will of the people. I imagine over time the situation will descend into violence, I have always supported people through out the world who have voted democratically for freedom. I will not post any more on here on my intentions but I will support my fellow countrymen down any path they choose fit to get true democracy and freedom.

Hashtag free Britain and may GHod who I do not believe in protect all our future freedom fighters.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
So they voted down the deal.

The politicans went against the will of the people. I imagine over time the situation will descend into violence, I have always supported people through out the world who have voted democratically for freedom. I will not post any more on here on my intentions but I will support my fellow countrymen down any path they choose fit to get true democracy and freedom.

Hashtag free Britain and may GHod who I do not believe in protect all our future freedom fighters.
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I can never tell if your being sarcastic.

But today's vote upheld democracy - which is what many Leavers said was a key factor.
(And should be a key factor for everyone)

Indeed this is actually a victory for Leavers, because the Govt will have to deliver a proper Brexit. Although quite how they do that without the skill set I'm not sure.
 
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monkeybarry said:
The favourable deal analogy pretty much destroyed your point, because a favourable deal is ultimately under the control of an external factor. Ergo, a non favourable deal is at least as likely - meaning you could not dismiss the current economic state as almost certainly being temporary.
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Quite right. But just to add a favourable deal (as in one better than being members of EU gives us) is complete fantasy. I can't believe that after everything has transpired since the vote... people still believe this.
I have more of a chance of a threesome with Beyonce and Shakira
 
DTA said:
Quite right. But just to add a favourable deal (as in one better than being members of EU gives us) is complete fantasy. I can't believe that after everything has transpired since the vote... people still believe this.
I have more of a chance of a threesome with Beyonce and Shakira
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I think it's acceptable to say a favourable deal could be otherwise categorised as an "acceptable" deal. Rather than "punitive".

But you'll have to join the queue for the last bit.
 
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