Politics, politics, politics

[monkeybarry]

But all we hold is a pair of 2s and the EU can see our cards

Oh I think we have the two's

 

[DTA]

Oh I think we have the two's

Isn't that what I said? Unless you are representing the EU?

 

[monkeybarry]

Isn't that what I said? Unless you are representing the EU?

You said we hold a pair of two's.
I think we have all four two's (not to be confused with four four two) and probably some more two's after that

 

[DTA]

You said we hold a pair of two's.
I think we have all four two's (not to be confused with four four two) and probably some more two's after that

Oh, so four of a kind? That seems quite optimistic to me. Why do you feel like that?

To me the EU27 needs to ensure that Brexit fails to make sure the EU27 succeeds, this is something I said before the referendum and it has so far proved to be right.

 

[monkeybarry]

Oh, so four of a kind? That seems quite optimistic to me. Why do you feel like that?

To me the EU27 needs to ensure that Brexit fails to make sure the EU27 succeeds, this is something I said before the referendum and it has so far proved to be right.

I think my reference to "number two's" may have been too subtle - it certainly wasn't meant as a positive.
(Or maybe it was just a brick joke)

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

So what happens to the EU when one of only 3 net contributors pulls their funding?

People keep saying how we are so doomed, it seems to me when 3 prop up another 25, and one of those three leaves - thats a major problem.

 

[StephenH]

So what happens to the EU when one of only 3 net contributors pulls their funding?

People keep saying how we are so doomed, it seems to me when 3 prop up another 25, and one of those three leaves - thats a major problem.

Major problem
Rise of ultra right wing in ‘politics’ and the demise of the EU.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I dont know about that. Maybe it will, maybe it wont - I really dont claim to know much about politics.

Stands to reason though that France and Germany are really going to feel the strain being the only two that contribute, and I wouldnt be surprised at French/German people taking issue with that.

And that the rest of Europe, if budgets are tightened, will also be more strained.

Its because of this Ive always felt it may be possible for us to pay for access. Practically it makes sense, for them and us, providing its strictly on a trading basis and not with any of the freedoms.

Principally, of course, its a different matter. As @DTA says - the EU wont want to set a precedent where leaving the club is in any way a good thing.

 

[Gutter Boy]

So what happens to the EU when one of only 3 net contributors pulls their funding?

People keep saying how we are so doomed, it seems to me when 3 prop up another 25, and one of those three leaves - thats a major problem.

The same thing as when northern Europe stopped funding the excesses of the Catholic church.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Major problem
Rise of ultra right wing in ‘politics’ and the demise of the EU.

I'm not sure about that. Greece and co will more likely go ultra left when freed from German economic restraints, while northern Europe will lose a lot of its causes for resentment and might just become a happier twenty-first century continent, where everyone can put WW2 guilt, reparations and paranoia behind them.

 

[DTA]

So what happens to the EU when one of only 3 net contributors pulls their funding?

People keep saying how we are so doomed, it seems to me when 3 prop up another 25, and one of those three leaves - thats a major problem.

Well they simply tighten their belts until enough growth has happened to allow them to do otherwise.

Losing the UK funding is not ideal for the EU27 but as long as the UK honours it's existing commitments then they really don't have to find any new money. They just have to adjust spending in their new budget cycle.

A successful Brexit on the other hand would be a disastrous out come for the EU27.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I dont think its that simple at all. Its not even guaranteed there would be growth, or enough growth, to compensate. And in the meantime there is ever increased strain on the budget (which in any relationship leads to discord).

How well could the dependent nations get on when they have less and less support coming in?

How will the pressure of being the only contributing nations effect the polls in France and Germany? It could make for very uncomfortable times for both governments. Particularly with Merkels dominance diminishing due to anti-euro sentiment taking hold there.


Now I understand the idea its a disaster if Brexit is successful, and of course on the face of it thats obvious. However, its only a disaster if it encourages France or Germany to follow suit. Neither of which would happen, given how committed they both are to the union (and the power they hold within).

The UK getting out is brilliant for them. It removes an obstacle to their ever closer union/superstate ideals.

The UK getting out and continuing to contribute? Even better, in practical terms (and not too hard to spin as a win on either side).


If Spain or Italy or Greece left? Its basically less of a burden, not a big hole in the budget.

When we go? I cant see it being smooth sailing.

 

[Gutter Boy]

IHow will the pressure of being the only contributing nations effect the polls in France and Germany? It could make for very uncomfortable times for both governments. Particularly with Merkels dominance diminishing due to anti-euro sentiment taking hold there.

Now I understand the idea its a disaster if Brexit is successful, and of course on the face of it thats obvious. However, its only a disaster if it encourages France or Germany to follow suit. Neither of which would happen, given how committed they both are to the union (and the power they hold within)

There's a disconnect between the political classes and the population. France's voter Euroscepticism is up there at the top end with Britain/Denmark/Hungary/Poland. Although Macron is explicitly pro-EU, Le Pen polled 33% on a Frexit ticket, despite being a fascist.

Empires always crumble. They overextend and become decadent. Nothing that big can operate effectively. There's less economic flexibility in the Eurozone than there is between different states in the US. Countries need agility to be able to thrive. It's already in its death throws.

 

[StephenH]

I'm not sure about that. Greece and co will more likely go ultra left when freed from German economic restraints, while northern Europe will lose a lot of its causes for resentment and might just become a happier twenty-first century continent, where everyone can put WW2 guilt, reparations and paranoia behind them.

I like your vision and truly hope you are right.

 

[the dza]

I liked Corbyn's speech today, he's much better at doing them these days.

I wonder how Theresa May will get on at the Tory conference...

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

The same thing as when northern Europe stopped funding the excesses of the Catholic church.

So what your saying is the EU will set up their own banking system and then protect any wrong doing(Philadelphia in the catholic church's case) corruption in the EU's case.

Are they not already doing that?

 

[Seedy Ron]

So what your saying is the EU will set up their own banking system and then protect any wrong doing(Philadelphia in the catholic church's case) corruption in the EU's case.

Are they not already doing that?

That's not a typo. Chich, a group of nuns and a few tubs of cream cheese = debauchery.

 

[r-u-s-x]

So what happens to the EU when one of only 3 net contributors pulls their funding?

People keep saying how we are so doomed, it seems to me when 3 prop up another 25, and one of those three leaves - thats a major problem.

They either borrow more, increase growth, increased tariff, spread the missing around the bloc or spend less.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

There's a disconnect between the political classes and the population. France's voter Euroscepticism is up there at the top end with Britain/Denmark/Hungary/Poland. Although Macron is explicitly pro-EU, Le Pen polled 33% on a Frexit ticket, despite being a fascist.

Empires always crumble. They overextend and become decadent. Nothing that big can operate effectively. There's less economic flexibility in the Eurozone than there is between different states in the US. Countries need agility to be able to thrive. It's already in its death throws.

Excellent as always.

Well when not talking about Defoe anyway.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

That's not a typo. Chich, a group of nuns and a few tubs of cream cheese = debauchery.

Fcuking auto correct, the wife put it on my laptop because of a rude email i sent to the west sussex health trust.

As for the nuns, I am a respectful guy I know they dont want anything in their cnuts, so i would do them in their bottom holes.