Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
That is:
EU contribution saving - SM access benefits = net loss
It isn't:
EU contribution saving - SM access benefits + RoW trading benefits = TBC
-
Dear Guest, Please note that adult content is not permitted on this forum. We have had our Google ads disabled at times due to some posts that were found from some time ago. Please do not post adult content and if you see any already on the forum, please report the post so that we can deal with it. Adult content is allowed in the glory hole - you will have to request permission to access it. Thanks, scara
Politics, politics, politics
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
That is:
EU contribution saving - SM access benefits = net loss
It isn't:
EU contribution saving - SM access benefits + RoW trading benefits = TBC
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I don't think the country (voters) would accept a deal which retains FoM and a continuing role of the ECJ, which are the big difference between EEA and CETA. May has also already stated they are two of the three big red lines (along with being able to strike RoW trade deals)
As Johnson said, the EEA option is becoming a vassal state - having to accept all the crap but having no influence. The worst of all worlds. The only good thing about it is that it's such a bad solution that it wouldn't last 6 months. A bit like making Timmeh your interim manager.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
My dream scenario for Friday is May just announcing that we're leaving the EU with immediate effect, and will be joining the TPP when it forms in November instead (interestingly May has visited both Japan and Canada recently). A better single market with none of the superstate or FoM downsides.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
If that's true, it's quite clever. He knows he's got enough MPs to bring down the government, and he knows May is too weak and chinless to call his bluff, so he'll probably get his way.
milo
Jack L. Jones
If DfIT had any evidence that trade deals with the rest of the world could be worth more than EEA/EFTA it would have been released with a fanfare. As this has happened, we can safely assume that their research tells us what we already know, leaving the EU is going to make us poorer. It is the same with the 50 unpublished risk assessments.
In world trade there are leaders and followers. Outside the EU we have the choice of following their regs or the US, there is not another option. Either way we are taking other people's rules without a say in them. This was pointed out repeatedly during the referendum and dismissed as project fear.
The only mandate is for a unicorns and rainbows Brexit (no job losses, no loss of access to the single market, no reduction in employment rights and £350m a week extra for the NHS). Anything else is a compromise without mandate.
milo
Jack L. Jones
He's not looking to bring down the government, he's looking to shift the blame when this all goes wrong.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
TTP - with Japan, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Mexico etc.
I'm pretty sure with Britain switching, it would become a bigger economic powerhouse than the EU (EU28 is 15% of the world's economy, TPP11 is 11%)
And it’s a pure trade deal - like the EEC before Maastricht.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
It's about his spring/summer 2019 leadership contest against Amber Rudd - absolutely
But to be in with a chance of winning the 2022 general election, he also needs a successful Brexit in the meantime. And he obviously believes the CETA route is the way to do this and feels he needs to influence that now.
milo
Jack L. Jones
He is either positioning himself for a post Brexit leadership tilt or trying to rid himself for the blame for the almighty mess he has created ahead of flouncing off back to a media career.
milo
Jack L. Jones
This article does a good job of explaining why FTAs with third countries are unlikely to make up for the loss of trade with the EU
https://medium.com/@SamuelMarcLowe/can-global-britain-defy-gravity-18df4e9f4f7f
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
That's fine if you are still thinking in a neo-liberal financial-services-serving paradigm.
But part of the motivation for/opportunity of Brexit is switching to post-neo-liberalism, an industrial strategy/rebalanced economy and investment in skills. Such fundamental structural reform, disincentivised by the EU, will have a much bigger impact on the health of the country than a few 0.01% here and there for big businesses and shareholders.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Another letter from the Boris faction:
milo
Jack L. Jones
Owen Paterson is as thick as brick and knows dingdong all about international trade. If he is supporting you, you should be worried.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
Ironically I have a similar take. Because partial exit is clearly worse than what we have now - EEA is basically being in the EU without any input into decisions - we will be forced into a more drastic exit.
The truth is that an EEA exit is probably better for the uk and people don't really care as much as politicians think about some court in the EU. But if Brexit was just giving up more spvrignity for zero back as would be the case with an EEA setup, it would make a mockery of Brexit. Thus hands are tied, unless someone is brave enough and smart enough to talk about achieving the aims of Brexit from within the EU.
Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
Johnson doesn't really believe in anything but Johnson (I refuse to call the qunt Boris).
I think his political calculation is that a good chunk of the electorate (and enough of his own party) will vote for whoever offers the "out means out" or "hard" Brexit. And taking this position means he can rally "the bastards" (as Major called them) in his own party to get rid of May and install him as PM.
I think his political calculation is that a good chunk of the electorate (and enough of his own party) will vote for whoever offers the "out means out" or "hard" Brexit. And taking this position means he can rally "the bastards" (as Major called them) in his own party to get rid of May and install him as PM.