Politics, politics, politics

[SpurMeUp]

It's really not, and you're the only person who seems to think that.

Everyone who follows or works in politics thinks it's very clear that she's making a power grab while the going is good.

1. Why didn't May do this 4 months ago? Instead she said it would muddy the waters of Brexit and negotiations and categorically ruled out an election. Muddying the waters is exactly what she now needs, as Hard Brexit was looking like a catastrophe for the UK. She couldn't find a way out...this was it.

2. Who cares what other people say, think for yourself!

3. See Daily Fail article over the weekend saying May doesn't like being PM. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4415492/Could-Theresa-planning-exit.html

 

[JPBB]

It's really not, and you're the only person who seems to think that.

Everyone who follows or works in politics thinks it's very clear that she's making a power grab while the going is good.

I am not sure how good the going is. There are a lot of disenfranchised remainders who will punish her. i expect the Liberals to hurt her in the South and Labour not to perform as badly as some on here think. Many will feel that Corbyn is less bad than May (including me).

 

[scaramanga]

Not sure if it is just pure opportunism or a bit of fear of the future.

If she has numbers / predictions to show that post BREXIT things will hit the fan (economically) and / or they wont control immigration in any meaningful way they know now is the time to get more people in power before this happens.

I think that the recent figures show that she's unlikely to ever be in a stronger position no matter what the outcome. Leave it long enough and Labour have to eventually get their act together and replace Corbyn - even they can't continue like this.

This is probably peak election time and barring a complete campaign screw up (not putting this past the Conservatives, I've seen first hand their ability to self-destruct a few times) they should walk a large majority. Why leave it open to chance by delaying?

 

[scaramanga]

1. Why didn't May do this 4 months ago? Instead she said it would muddy the waters of Brexit and negotiations and categorically ruled out an election. Muddying the waters is exactly what she now needs, as Hard Brexit was looking like a catastrophe for the UK. She couldn't find a way out...this was it.

2. Who cares what other people say, think for yourself!

3. See Daily Fail article over the weekend saying May doesn't like being PM. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4415492/Could-Theresa-planning-exit.html

1) She said what she said because she didn't want to face an election. Now she has very strong approval figures it makes sense to hit Labour while they are weak.
2) I have thought for myself, my opinion lines up with all but the most fringe opinions.
3) Please don't use the Daily Mail for sauce - it demeans us both.

 

[SpurMeUp]

1) She said what she said because she didn't want to face an election. Now she has very strong approval figures it makes sense to hit Labour while they are weak.
2) I have thought for myself, my opinion lines up with all but the most fringe opinions.
3) Please don't use the Daily Mail for sauce - it demeans us both.

1) Are you suggesting her approval ratings have changed in 4 months? 2) All but the most 'fringe opinions' knew 4 months ago that her approval rating was higher than Corbyn's. Nothing has changed there. 3) No smoke without fire and all that, something was going on, 3 days later she calls an election... That article picked up on something.

 

[r-u-s-x]

I think that the recent figures show that she's unlikely to ever be in a stronger position no matter what the outcome. Leave it long enough and Labour have to eventually get their act together and replace Corbyn - even they can't continue like this.

This is probably peak election time and barring a complete campaign screw up (not putting this past the Conservatives, I've seen first hand their ability to self-destruct a few times) they should walk a large majority. Why leave it open to chance by delaying?

Yes I agree with the fact they will never be in such a strong position however they brought in the Fixed term law so a party in a good position wouldn't call an early election, you would hope they would have a little bit of embarrassment in doing the complete opposite at the first opportune moment. This is the only reason why I am speculating there may be more to it than being in a position of power. As I said maybe they have bad news brewing or going to allow freedom of movement.

 

[monkeybarry]

Yet a large proportion of those who voted Remain will value democracy over winning.

For those who care about the longer term future of the country, getting what one wants via the back door is worse than not getting what one wants.

But this is democracy - overturning the referendum without a GE would be undemocratic.
Voting on whether to accept the action is democratic - albeit a slightly screwed up version. You could even dress it up as a vote for "facts over spin" (although that be a very bold move!)

 

[scaramanga]

But this is democracy - overturning the referendum without a GE would be undemocratic.
Voting on whether to accept the action is democratic - albeit a slightly screwed up version. You could even dress it up as a vote for "facts over spin" (although that be a very bold move!)

Sounds like a back door to me - the referendum was the simplest measure possible without external party influence. Party voting will always skew such a vote at a GE.

 

[scaramanga]

1) Are you suggesting her approval ratings have changed in 4 months? 2) All but the most 'fringe opinions' knew 4 months ago that her approval rating was higher than Corbyn's. Nothing has changed there. 3) No smoke without fire and all that, something was going on, 3 days later she calls an election... That article picked up on something.

1) Yes, massively. The conservatives now have more than a 20 point lead according to some polls. Anyone not calling an election with those figures is a fool.
2) Higher, yes. High enough to not have to rely on 10-20 votes from her own backbench? Probably not.
3) I think the DM gave up on proper journalism a long time ago - it's not where I would be looking for between the lines comment.

 

[scaramanga]

Yes I agree with the fact they will never be in such a strong position however they brought in the Fixed term law so a party in a good position wouldn't call an early election, you would hope they would have a little bit of embarrassment in doing the complete opposite at the first opportune moment. This is the only reason why I am speculating there may be more to it than being in a position of power. As I said maybe they have bad news brewing or going to allow freedom of movement.

This is probably the case - I hope it is.

I am 100% behind Brexit if it is a means to remove tariffs and legislative burden. I'm equally strongly against it if it's some kind of anti-foreigner sentiment from a bunch of undereducated racists complaining that they're being undercut for jobs whilst screwing us for their benefits.

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

People resent being dragged back to the polls so soon and really her reasoning sounded completely insincere....because it was insincere. Poll leads have a habit of vaporising when the people think they are being taken for mugs. Also here's hoping there is as much hubris towards Labour in the Tory ranks, as is being expressed by their cheerleaders on here.

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

This is probably the case - I hope it is.

I am 100% behind Brexit if it is a means to remove tariffs and legislative burden. I'm equally strongly against it if it's some kind of anti-foreigner sentiment from a bunch of undereducated racists complaining that they're being undercut for jobs whilst screwing us for their benefits.

Is that your manifesto Scara? Which seat have you been shortlisted for, as our local, friendly, caring, Tory candidate?

 

[SpurMeUp]

1) Yes, massively. The conservatives now have more than a 20 point lead according to some polls. Anyone not calling an election with those figures is a fool.
2) Higher, yes. High enough to not have to rely on 10-20 votes from her own backbench? Probably not.
3) I think the DM gave up on proper journalism a long time ago - it's not where I would be looking for between the lines comment.

I don't think there has been any significant change to May's poll ratings or Corbyn's. The gap was massive before as it is now. Moreover, politicians know the weaknesses of modern polls. Her decision to call a snap election has little to do with polls, as she herself outlined a few months ago - if polls were key she would already called an election some months ago.

I'd use Andrex over the DM for toilet paper. It's not well regarded, but they are a conservative paper with some insight, and they, plus others - guardian for example - were picking up on the trouble brewing for May.

I'm not sure what the election will do for anyone, but I think May is using it as an escape route. imo.

 

[StephenH]

Now that the referendum has happened, it doesn't have to be split that way.

There are plenty of people who feel that the democratic process is very important and that the outcome of the referendum must be followed regardless of their personal opinion of it. Of course, there are still plenty trying to find every loophole they can, but I believe this country still values democracy highly.

Democracy was hijacked when the badly organised and skewed European vote was implemented. The lack of proper debate and information was similar to the farce in Turkey yesterday...........dont buy all this "democracy" and "will of the people" the Tory isolationists..... conveniently keep trotting out.

It was a vote on immigration, pure a simple had bugger all to do with anything else.

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

I don't think there has been any significant change to May's poll ratings or Corbyn's. The gap was massive before as it is now. Moreover, politicians know the weaknesses of modern polls. Her decision to call a snap election has little to do with polls, as she herself outlined a few months ago - if polls were key she would already called an election some months ago.

I'd use Andrex over the DM for toilet paper. It's not well regarded, but they are a conservative paper with some insight, and they, plus others - guardian for example - were picking up on the trouble brewing for May.

I'm not sure what the election will do for anyone, but I think May is using it as an escape route. imo.

It also seems to be the worst kept secret in Westminster. Apparently the other parties have been war gaming this scenario for some time. It hasn't come as any great shock.

 

[r-u-s-x]

People resent being dragged back to the polls so soon and really her reasoning sounded completely insincere....because it was insincere. Poll leads have a habit of vaporising when the people think they are being taken for mugs. Also here's hoping there is as much hubris towards Labour in the Tory ranks, as is being expressed by their cheerleaders on here.

The OAPs love a vote though, would a low turnout brought along by voting fatigue not help the Tories?

 

[scaramanga]

I don't think there has been any significant change to May's poll ratings or Corbyn's. The gap was massive before as it is now. Moreover, politicians know the weaknesses of modern polls. Her decision to call a snap election has little to do with polls, as she herself outlined a few months ago - if polls were key she would already called an election some months ago.

According to YouGov (the first place I looked) the gap over Labour has gone from 12 points at the end of July to 21 points - that's a massive difference.

I'd use Andrex over the DM for toilet paper. It's not well regarded, but they are a conservative paper with some insight, and they, plus others - guardian for example - were picking up on the trouble brewing for May.

Do they have much insight? Genuine question - I don't think I can remember them breaking any inside stories for some time.

I'm not sure what the election will do for anyone, but I think May is using it as an escape route. imo.

If so then she's picked a terrible time to do it. As I said earlier in the thread, she could spend the next couple of months stamping on babies' heads and still come out comfortably ahead of Corbyn.

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

The OAPs love a vote though, would a low turnout brought along by voting fatigue not help the Tories?

Brexit has fired a lot of voters up. They might seek to punish the Tories. If I was Corbyn, I'd play the tricky, untrustworthy May card. You know, a bit of lying Hillary.

 

[scaramanga]

Democracy was hijacked when the badly organised and skewed European vote was implemented. The lack of proper debate and information was similar to the farce in Turkey yesterday...........dont buy all this "democracy" and "will of the people" the Tory isolationists..... conveniently keep trotting out.

It was a vote on immigration, pure a simple had bugger all to do with anything else.

Both sides had the opportunity to make their case. I also don't think the electorate were swayed much by either side in the run up - there's been a steady build of anti-EU sentiment since they started power grabbing when they played "When is a treaty not a treaty?" (Answer: When it looks like the EU might lose a referendum on it).

 

[r-u-s-x]

Brexit has fired a lot of voters up. They might seek to punish the Tories. If I was Corbyn, I'd play the tricky, untrustworthy May card. You know, a bit of lying Hillary.

Most voters will be center-ish and not really political think you will get a lot more put off by Corbyn then want to punish the tories probably.