Politics, politics, politics

[scaramanga]

yet another Brexit referendum............

No serious party will publicly go against Brexit - it would be political suicide.

 

[r-u-s-x]

No serious party will publicly go against Brexit - it would be political suicide.

Possible strategy that would allow you to go against Brexit: run on a mandate of pursuing a Soft Brexit - stay in the single market / Norway option or even get details of the A50 agreement and put to another vote prior to enacting (*as long as we are able to stop the process at any time, which I think is getting decided in the courts).

 

[Gutter Boy]

Just more political opportunism from the Tories. Who are they kidding, they already have a majority in the House of Commons.

This election will destroy Labour in the way 1922 did for the Liberals.

The Tories will gain pretty much every UKIP vote, plus a lot of Labour ones in the midlands.

The Lib Dems will gain a lot of the metropolitan Labour votes, plus some remain Tory seats in the south west, overtaking Labour into second.

I think we'll see something like: c.425 Tory, c. 100 Lib Dem, c.55 SNP, c.47 Labour

 

[the dza]

This election will destroy Labour in the way 1922 did for the Liberals.

The Tories will gain pretty much every UKIP vote, plus a lot of Labour ones in the midlands.

The Lib Dems will gain a lot of the metropolitan Labour votes, plus some remain Tory seats in the south west, overtaking Labour into second.

I think we'll see something like: c.425 Tory, c. 100 Lib Dem, c.55 SNP, c.47 Labour

If you really believe that, you should get down the bookmakers because you will get very good odds on those seat projections.

 

[r-u-s-x]

This election will destroy Labour in the way 1922 did for the Liberals.

The Tories will gain pretty much every UKIP vote, plus a lot of Labour ones in the midlands.

The Lib Dems will gain a lot of the metropolitan Labour votes, plus some remain Tory seats in the south west, overtaking Labour into second.

I think we'll see something like: c.425 Tory, c. 100 Lib Dem, c.55 SNP, c.47 Labour

I dont agree with your predictions, Labour will be in a brick show but not as bad as majority of people will still vote along party lines - I think Labour will still get around 150.

This is good "politicking" by the tories but surely they should just remove the Fixed Terms legislation because this proves its just a load of bollox.

 

[StephenH]

No serious party will publicly go against Brexit - it would be political suicide.

There are still enough sensible people left out there, so I live in hope. They cannot all be jingoistic isolationists like Liam Fox and the rest of the tory barmy army.

I dont give a monkey's about the EU. In or out. Just dont like the people pushing brexit.
Selfish bunch of *****

 

[scaramanga]

Possible strategy that would allow you to go against Brexit: run on a mandate of pursuing a Soft Brexit - stay in the single market / Norway option or even get details of the A50 agreement and put to another vote prior to enacting (*as long as we are able to stop the process at any time, which I think is getting decided in the courts).

That's the angle I suspect May will be taking - maybe not publicly but everything she said before the referendum leads me to think that's her preferred outcome.

 

[scaramanga]

There are still enough sensible people left out there, so I live in hope. They cannot all be jingoistic isolationists like Liam Fox and the rest of the tory barmy army.

Now that the referendum has happened, it doesn't have to be split that way.

There are plenty of people who feel that the democratic process is very important and that the outcome of the referendum must be followed regardless of their personal opinion of it. Of course, there are still plenty trying to find every loophole they can, but I believe this country still values democracy highly.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I dont agree with your predictions, Labour will be in a brick show but not as bad as majority of people will still vote along party lines - I think Labour will still get around 150.

This is good "politicking" by the tories but surely they should just remove the Fixed Terms legislation because this proves its just a load of bollox.

I think the narrative has changed in the old industrial heartlands. They now blame Labour for freedom of movement that took their jobs, housing and public services (I'm not saying that's true, but that's the narrative ingrained by the newspapers). The recent by-elections suggested that.

The conservatism of May also appeals to them more than the liberalism of Cameron did. She's also been talking up industrial strategies over financial services (read Will Hutton on the perpetual war between these two), which has traction outside the south-east

 

[r-u-s-x]

That's the angle I suspect May will be taking - maybe not publicly but everything she said before the referendum leads me to think that's her preferred outcome.

I meant a way an opposition party can go against the vote - I think tories will be running on the ticket of "a good deal or no deal" i.e. they can do what they want in the negotiations and now they have a mandate so to go against them will be undemocratic while also getting another 30-50 seats and another 3 years.

 

[Gutter Boy]

That's the angle I suspect May will be taking - maybe not publicly but everything she said before the referendum leads me to think that's her preferred outcome.

I think, like Corbyn, she is an ideological leaver who just toed the party line. All her actions in the home office suggest that.

If anything she's an isolationist in contrast to the global liberals of Johnson/Fox/Davis. But I don't she's any more fond of the EU.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I don't see anyone with any knowledge of politics suggesting this is the case.

Pretty much everyone is saying that it's a power grab within the Conservative Party and an opportunity to set her own manifesto and not have to live by someone else's. The only other factor in this is the recent strong polls for her party making it a fairly safe option to take.

Why would she change from no election until 2020 to a snap one this summer? Simple: zhit hit the fan, she realised things would take a massive turn for the worse as the UK didn't get the deal it wanted. How can you change this trajectory? An election.

 

[scaramanga]

I think the narrative has changed in the old industrial heartlands. They now blame Labour for freedom of movement that took their jobs, housing and public services. The recent by-elections suggested that.

The conservatism of May also appeals to them more than the liberalism of Cameron did. She's also been talking up industrial strategies over financial services (read Will Hutton on the perpetual war between these two), which has traction outside the south-east

I can't see them getting that many.

350-360 should be plenty for May to be able to ditch her more swivel-eyed sections of the party. They should walk that without even trying - save the campaign funds for the election party.

 

[scaramanga]

Why would she change from no election until 2020 to a snap one this summer? Simple: zhit hit the fan, she realised things would take a massive turn for the worse as the UK didn't get the deal it wanted. How can you change this trajectory? An election.

Mainly polls showing her approval rating to be huge (considering what she's dealing with) and Corbyn's to be through the floor. A perfectly opportune moment.

 

[SpurMeUp]

No serious party will publicly go against Brexit - it would be political suicide.

48% of those that voted is a lot of votes. Quite a few who didn't vote don't want Brexit. Hardly suicide then. More like fresh, strong, assertive.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Mainly polls showing her approval rating to be huge (considering what she's dealing with) and Corbyn's to be through the floor. A perfectly opportune moment.

That has always been the case. Nothing has changed there. What has changed is the reality of EU discussions: the UK was heading for hard brexit. Simple.

 

[scaramanga]

48% of those that voted is a lot of votes. Quite a few who didn't vote don't want Brexit. Hardly suicide then. More like fresh, strong, assertive.

Yet a large proportion of those who voted Remain will value democracy over winning.

For those who care about the longer term future of the country, getting what one wants via the back door is worse than not getting what one wants.

 

[r-u-s-x]

I think the narrative has changed in the old industrial heartlands. They now blame Labour for freedom of movement that took their jobs, housing and public services. The recent by-elections suggested that.

The conservatism of May also appeals to them more than the liberalism of Cameron did. She's also been talking up industrial strategies over financial services (read Will Hutton on the perpetual war between these two), which has traction outside the south-east

We will see but I don't think so - the majority will vote Labour because they vote Labour, they will lose seats but not in the way you are predicting.

 

[scaramanga]

That has always been the case. Nothing has changed there. What has changed is the reality of EU discussions: the UK was heading for hard brexit. Simple.

It's really not, and you're the only person who seems to think that.

Everyone who follows or works in politics thinks it's very clear that she's making a power grab while the going is good.

 

[r-u-s-x]

It's really not, and you're the only person who seems to think that.

Everyone who follows or works in politics thinks it's very clear that she's making a power grab while the going is good.

Not sure if it is just pure opportunism or a bit of fear of the future.

If she has numbers / predictions to show that post BREXIT things will hit the fan (economically) and / or they wont control immigration in any meaningful way they know now is the time to get more people in power before this happens.