Grays_1890
Chris Jones
With the in fighting at Labour they wont be able to mobilise on the same hymn sheet.
This is going to kill them in a big way
This is going to kill them in a big way
yep - and a lot of policy that will be largely unpopular will have a manifesto mandate because they could put in mandatory euthanasia of your third born and still win in a landslide.With the in fighting at Labour they wont be able to mobilise on the same hymn sheet.
This is going to kill them in a big way
I'm feeling generous - I'll guess at them keeping 190 of their seats. They'll lose one to the SNP, a handful to the Student Party and the rest to the Conservatives.With the in fighting at Labour they wont be able to mobilise on the same hymn sheet.
This is going to kill them in a big way
yep - and a lot of policy that will be largely unpopular will have a manifesto mandate because they could put in mandatory euthanasia of your third born and still win in a landslide.
I don't think there has been any significant change to May's poll ratings or Corbyn's. The gap was massive before as it is now. Moreover, politicians know the weaknesses of modern polls. Her decision to call a snap election has little to do with polls, as she herself outlined a few months ago - if polls were key she would already called an election some months ago.
I'd use Andrex over the DM for toilet paper. It's not well regarded, but they are a conservative paper with some insight, and they, plus others - guardian for example - were picking up on the trouble brewing for May.
I'm not sure what the election will do for anyone, but I think May is using it as an escape route. imo.
Both sides had the opportunity to make their case. I also don't think the electorate were swayed much by either side in the run up - there's been a steady build of anti-EU sentiment since they started power grabbing when they played "When is a treaty not a treaty?" (Answer: When it looks like the EU might lose a referendum on it).
Brexit has fired a lot of voters up. They might seek to punish the Tories. If I was Corbyn, I'd play the tricky, untrustworthy May card. You know, a bit of lying Hillary.
spare a thought for the Russians, they have to work out which clusterfudge to favour
According to YouGov (the first place I looked) the gap over Labour has gone from 12 points at the end of July to 21 points - that's a massive difference.
Do they have much insight? Genuine question - I don't think I can remember them breaking any inside stories for some time.
If so then she's picked a terrible time to do it. As I said earlier in the thread, she could spend the next couple of months stamping on babies' heads and still come out comfortably ahead of Corbyn.
She is calling an election because the result is as close to a dead certainty as you will ever see and her hand is far stronger in the short term than it is in the long term.
The A50 negotiations are going to be tough and most of the news will not be good over the next few years. It is best for her to get the election out of the way, give herself a larger majority so that she is less reliant on her Eurosceptic headbanger backbenchers and give herself some time the other side of leaving the EU for events to turn in her favour.
4 months ago, not July last year, was when May categorically ruled out a snap election. Her lead was as it is today.
I think they did have some insight on this. Not only them, it seems trouble has been brewing, and many many were aware, even the daily fail.
Maybe May knew she had to change things now, but hasn't worked out the next steps. It might help stall EU actions too, while she lines up her ducks. The trajectory she was on was calamitous, the UK falling off a cliff and the conservatives splitting down the middle. She's just bought herself some time and space. If she's re-elected, she might be able to run on her own mandate, or she may find another way to get around the impossible brexit task.
I'm not so sure. Why U-turn then on her clear statement 4 months ago? Her lead hasn't changed. What has?
Her lead is bigger now than it has been at any time during her leadership. A couple of points could easily be the difference between needing some of the rebel backbenchers or not - that's a very real consideration when choosing when to call an election.4 months ago, not July last year, was when May categorically ruled out a snap election. Her lead was as it was today then.
I think they did have some insight on this. Not only them, it seems trouble has been brewing, and many many were aware, even the daily fail.
Maybe May knew she had to change things now, but hasn't worked out the next steps. It might help stall EU actions too, while she lines up her ducks. The trajectory she was on was calamitous, the UK falling off a cliff and the conservatives splitting down the middle. She's just bought herself some time and space. If she's re-elected, she might be able to run on her own mandate, or she may find another way to get around the impossible brexit task.
Because she was lying four months ago.
In a Trump world U turning is finePoliticians never ever want to willfully be seen to U-turn. I don't think she would have categorically ruled out an election, to so quickly U-turn, if it was her intention all along. Any politician worth their salt would have fudged the question instead "I don't foresee any reason to call an early election" for example. Yet May clearly ruled it out. So I don't think she was purposefully lying. I think her situation became untenable, and something had to give - a split in the conservative party, brexit negotiations...or an election.
The only crumb of comfort i can take from this is that a larger majority will make her less reliant on her headbanger back benchers and might give her the freedom to take a more pragmatic approach to our future relationship to the EU.
In a Trump world U turning is fine
Sent from my EVA-L09 using Fapatalk