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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Legohamster said:
How so -
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Put yourself in the position of the EU. You don't want the UK to leave - contributions are too valuable.

UK Parliament passes laws amounting to a complete block on no deal, leaving only Remain or an agreed deal on the table.

As an EU negotiator, your red lines are no longer important, you no longer care about the minimum you can accept. Your responsibility is to offer a deal so bad that the UK Parliament has to vote against it. The second upside being that even if they do vote for it, you have everything you wanted because the deal was so awful.

SpurMeUp said:
How did May get a deal then? At a time when no deal was not a serious consideration.
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You mean Barnier's deal that May branded hers?

That wasn't a deal because she didn't negotiate - plenty have said that since she quit. She just gave the EU everything they wanted on day 1 and tried to force it through parliament.
 
Grays_1890 said:
The point is Conservatives are on their 3rd leader in 3 years...and he can't take advantage and Labour are further away from power than 3 years ago.

What kind of leader does that make him?

He is an utter goon...People slag Blair but he was a leader, he broke the Conservative monopoly on number 10 and the conservatives were 100 times stronger than the party you see today.

He couldn't run a tap let alone his own party "comrades" and GHod forbid he got a grip on the country.

The Anti Semite scumbag
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The Anti Semite thing doesn't wash with me and my Jewish friends agree!
but that's another matter!

I can't get on with him and his party!
He would get my vote though to stop Johnson and his ERG fanatics!
I hope your goon reference is not football related?
 
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StephenH said:
The Anti Semite thing doesn't wash with me and my Jewish friends agree!
but that's another matter!

I can't get on with him and his party!
He would get my vote though to stop Johnson and his ERG fanatics!
I hope your goon reference is not football related?
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Well I am jewish and I think he is and I think the independent panel and various Jewish MPs think the party is
 
Grays_1890 said:
The point is Conservatives are on their 3rd leader in 3 years...and he can't take advantage and Labour are further away from power than 3 years ago.

What kind of leader does that make him?

He is an utter goon...People slag Blair but he was a leader, he broke the Conservative monopoly on number 10 and the conservatives were 100 times stronger than the party you see today.

He couldn't run a tap let alone his own party "comrades" and GHod forbid he got a grip on the country.

The Anti Semite scumbag
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I fudging hate Blair. Absolutely detest him, and I still think we are dealing with the consequences of his leadership.

That said, if he was in charge of Labour today, they would walk it. As much of a clam as I think he is, he could run a party and win elections...
 
scaramanga said:
Put yourself in the position of the EU. You don't want the UK to leave - contributions are too valuable.

UK Parliament passes laws amounting to a complete block on no deal, leaving only Remain or an agreed deal on the table.

As an EU negotiator, your red lines are no longer important, you no longer care about the minimum you can accept. Your responsibility is to offer a deal so bad that the UK Parliament has to vote against it. The second upside being that even if they do vote for it, you have everything you wanted because the deal was so awful.



You mean Barnier's deal that May branded hers?

That wasn't a deal because she didn't negotiate - plenty have said that since she quit. She just gave the EU everything they wanted on day 1 and tried to force it through parliament.
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What do you think a 'negotiated' deal would look like? How would it be different? One thing is for sure, the notion that the EU would be knocking our door down for a deal, that the german car makers etc would make this a simple deal for the UK - we can say without doubt that is rubbish. It was not true.
 
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scaramanga said:
Put yourself in the position of the EU. You don't want the UK to leave - contributions are too valuable.

UK Parliament passes laws amounting to a complete block on no deal, leaving only Remain or an agreed deal on the table.

As an EU negotiator, your red lines are no longer important, you no longer care about the minimum you can accept. Your responsibility is to offer a deal so bad that the UK Parliament has to vote against it. The second upside being that even if they do vote for it, you have everything you wanted because the deal was so awful.



You mean Barnier's deal that May branded hers?

That wasn't a deal because she didn't negotiate - plenty have said that since she quit. She just gave the EU everything they wanted on day 1 and tried to force it through parliament.
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Except for the UK backstop. That's all the UK's idea.

As it stands now I see two options in the short term - extension via the Benn act, or crashing out by circumventing the Benn act via some legal loophole. May's WA will not get the backing it requires, and so even in practical terms the time required to negotiate a new deal and get it debated + ratified by the EU in the EC is longer than the time left. And that is not withstanding that Boris is not engaged in any sort of meaningful negotiations anyway, by all accounts.

Making a prediction I think it will end up with the extension kicking in after the government try to circumvent the Benn act but ultimately fail after a legal challenge.
 
Rorschach said:
Except for the UK backstop. That's all the UK's idea.

As it stands now I see two options in the short term - extension via the Benn act, or crashing out by circumventing the Benn act via some legal loophole. May's WA will not get the backing it requires, and so even in practical terms the time required to negotiate a new deal and get it debated + ratified by the EU in the EC is longer than the time left. And that is not withstanding that Boris is not engaged in any sort of meaningful negotiations anyway, by all accounts.

Making a prediction I think it will end up with the extension kicking in after the government try to circumvent the Benn act but ultimately fail after a legal challenge.
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Not disputing it's a big ask, but if there was a deal to be done (hypothetically speaking - unlikely in my view because the EU aren't incentivised to achieve one, but leaving that aside), I think Johnson could wriggle his way to accepting a very short extension to get it over the line. I don't think it'll happen, but I don't think I'd view the 31st October deadline as an absolute impediment to it, within reason.
 
Everything is really on hold bar a few choice words until we have a general election. Even if a referendum bill is passed first a new government can just repeal it if they win anyway

To be honest the whole thing is just getting tedious now reading the same thing day after day, I'm not a fan of 2019 Boris but I do admire that he's at least attempting to get things done and bring it to a conclusion. I'm keen to get it sorted so we can move on to in my view more pressing problems like housing, NHS, Education etc.
 
SpurMeUp said:
What do you think a 'negotiated' deal would look like? How would it be different? One thing is for sure, the nothing that the EU would be knocking our door down for a deal, that the german car makers etc would make this a simple deal for the UK - we can say without doubt that is rubbish. It was not true.
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I can tell you how I would negotiate the deal - experience has told me not to assume any ability of any politician. I think I made that clear to you at the start of all of this.
 
Rorschach said:
Except for the UK backstop. That's all the UK's idea.

As it stands now I see two options in the short term - extension via the Benn act, or crashing out by circumventing the Benn act via some legal loophole. May's WA will not get the backing it requires, and so even in practical terms the time required to negotiate a new deal and get it debated + ratified by the EU in the EC is longer than the time left. And that is not withstanding that Boris is not engaged in any sort of meaningful negotiations anyway, by all accounts.

Making a prediction I think it will end up with the extension kicking in after the government try to circumvent the Benn act but ultimately fail after a legal challenge.
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The backstop means nothing to the EU other than the ability to lock us into membership in perpetuity by refusing to join in negotiations at the next stage. It's been presented as something for the UK but actually it's their way of tying our hands when the trade deals begin.

All accounts are those with a vested interest in seeing Johnson fail, remember.

I agree with your analysis of where we will end up. Neither parliament nor the SC want us to leave so we simply won't be allowed to leave - no matter what the wishes of the electorate.
 
glorygloryeze said:
Imagine when that Brexit Extension is to March 2021...:(
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They will be able to frustrate and block until the 5 year period until the next election runs out. At that point anyone having taken part in such treachery will be destroyed at the GE.

By that point though they will probably have contrived to pass a law that all future governments must always remain in the EU in perpetuity with a unanimous parliamentary vote (with passing from the SC) being required to rescind.
 
Speaking to one of my old gang who is now at PWC and he very calmly announced they are working on 10 to 15 years to sort Brexit minimum if/when we leave.
sobering thought.
 
scaramanga said:
They will be able to frustrate and block until the 5 year period until the next election runs out. At that point anyone having taken part in such treachery will be destroyed at the GE.

By that point though they will probably have contrived to pass a law that all future governments must always remain in the EU in perpetuity with a unanimous parliamentary vote (with passing from the SC) being required to rescind.
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Yep. Depressing isn't it? I don't see a way out of this now, seems we will be staying in the EU forever more...:(
 
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