Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[DTA]

The answer to this equation, is to have the border down the Irish sea.

If that happens, brexit actually starts to make a little sense.

As we will have the same access (via NI... UK Territory) to the EU, but also can make our own trade deals without worrying about french wine producers etc).

Long term it would actually be better for the DUP as it would actually mean that Ireland is less likely to unite as the increase of prosperity will mean an influx of people from the UK mainland as well.

The problem would be that Scotland would want a similar deal to NI as may Wales.

 

[r-u-s-x]

"I am Millwall"

Shadwell army

 

[scaramanga]

To keep the integrity of the single market and the CU. Which they are a part of and is linked to their prosperity.

Ireland are the EU country that stands to lose the most from a no deal Brexit. It makes plenty of sense for them to not want a border on either side of them.

I think you and @SpurMeUp might have fallen for the rhetoric about the EU being about everyone doing what's best for the many. In fact, it's a bunch of countries doing what's best for them and sometimes those bests align.

Ireland would be mad to put a border between them and the North. We're their largest trading partner this side of the Atlantic, and that's just when you measure what goes through the books. The cross border trade is absolutely huge there. The violence alone would be enough to put them off. Ireland should, and I'm sure would, veto any deal that results in a border on either side - it's the only thing they can do.

 

[scaramanga]

The answer to this equation, is to have the border down the Irish sea.

If that happens, brexit actually starts to make a little sense.

As we will have the same access (via NI... UK Territory) to the EU, but also can make our own trade deals without worrying about french wine producers etc).

Long term it would actually be better for the DUP as it would actually mean that Ireland is less likely to unite as the increase of prosperity will mean an influx of people from the UK mainland as well.

The problem would be that Scotland would want a similar deal to NI as may Wales.

That won't get through parliament because Labour are playing "anything but what the conservatives want"

 

[SpurMeUp]

Ireland are the EU country that stands to lose the most from a no deal Brexit. It makes plenty of sense for them to not want a border on either side of them.

I think you and @SpurMeUp might have fallen for the rhetoric about the EU being about everyone doing what's best for the many. In fact, it's a bunch of countries doing what's best for them and sometimes those bests align.

Ireland would be mad to put a border between them and the North. We're their largest trading partner this side of the Atlantic, and that's just when you measure what goes through the books. The cross border trade is absolutely huge there. The violence alone would be enough to put them off. Ireland should, and I'm sure would, veto any deal that results in a border on either side - it's the only thing they can do.

Why do you think it is an option to maintain the customs union? It is not something nations will have a veto on. It's like Greece saying, you know what EU we're not going to man the Turkey border crossing, and we'll let everything in. There have that! And don't try and stop us, otherwise we'll veto it! Ohhh

 

[scaramanga]

Why do you think it is an option to maintain the customs union? It is not something nations will have a veto on. It's like Greece saying, you know what EU we're not going to man the Turkey border crossing, and we'll let everything in. There have that! And don't try and stop us, otherwise we'll veto it! Ohhh

The border situation will be a part of any trade deals being negotiated going forwards. Ireland will not sign on to a deal that means a border on either side of their country.

Ireland will absolutely not put up a border and fudge themselves out of the Good Friday Agreement - how many companies will invest in a terrorist hotspot?

 

[Rorschach]

What kind of house is it?

Ireland,if face with a choice between a border between them and the rest of the EU or a border between them and NI. Will absolutely put a border in NI. Then squarely blame the UK for forcing them to do so.

The orange rude boys will absolutely respond to a renewal of violence... Doesn't help us much does it... Almost all of which will be in NI... Which is UK Territory. So increased policing costs to add to the no deal bill. And you know... Loss of life.

Correct. A physical border has been planned for and will happen in the event of no deal.

 

[DTA]

Ireland are the EU country that stands to lose the most from a no deal Brexit. It makes plenty of sense for them to not want a border on either side of them.

I think you and @SpurMeUp might have fallen for the rhetoric about the EU being about everyone doing what's best for the many. In fact, it's a bunch of countries doing what's best for them and sometimes those bests align.

Ireland would be mad to put a border between them and the North. We're their largest trading partner this side of the Atlantic, and that's just when you measure what goes through the books. The cross border trade is absolutely huge there. The violence alone would be enough to put them off. Ireland should, and I'm sure would, veto any deal that results in a border on either side - it's the only thing they can do.

UK is a massively important trade partner for Ireland No doubt. But the EU has already committed to financially helping ROE in the event of a no deal. This coupled with the fact that ROE would be uniquely placed to replace the UK as the trans Atlantic bridge to the EU would mean that longer term they would have great prospects.

 

[Rorschach]

The border situation will be a part of any trade deals being negotiated going forwards. Ireland will not sign on to a deal that means a border on either side of their country.

Ireland will absolutely not put up a border and fudge themselves out of the Good Friday Agreement - how many companies will invest in a terrorist hotspot?

After Oct 31st the backstop will be pre-requirement to every trade deal the UK has with the EU. And the divorce payment. And Gibraltar. And fishing rights and whatever else the EU27 want. Everything is back on the table in the event of a no deal. And this negotiation will last for years and years.

 

[DTA]

The border situation will be a part of any trade deals being negotiated going forwards. Ireland will not sign on to a deal that means a border on either side of their country.

Ireland will absolutely not put up a border and fudge themselves out of the Good Friday Agreement - how many companies will invest in a terrorist hotspot?

The terrorism would like before, mostly be on UK Territory... NI and the mainland UK.

 

[Rorschach]

UK is a massively important trade partner for Ireland No doubt. But the EU has already committed to financially helping ROE in the event of a no deal. This coupled with the fact that ROE would be uniquely placed to replace the UK as the trans Atlantic bridge to the EU would mean that longer term they would have great prospects.

The land bridge for Irish imports through the UK will probably sting more than the trade itself, which is significant but not that massive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1155518972407820288

 

[DTA]

That won't get through parliament because Labour are playing "anything but what the conservatives want"

Nothing will get through parliament as it stands.

 

[DTA]

The land bridge for Irish imports through the UK will probably sting more than the trade itself, which is significant but not that massive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1155518972407820288

That's a great thread thanks... It actually means that what @scaramanga was saying is factually false and adds weight to what I was saying about Ireland actually being in a great position to replace The UK as as the transatlantic bridge to the EU... As long as the integrity of the CU and SM is upheld... So they would absolutely put a border on NI.

 

[Rorschach]

The terrorism would like before, mostly be on UK Territory... NI and the mainland UK.

I think a border poll will happen before things get out of hand, to be honest.

The UK mainland might even be first to experience civil unrest if warnings are to be believed. When the wine runs out is my prediction.

 

[SpurMeUp]

The border situation will be a part of any trade deals being negotiated going forwards. Ireland will not sign on to a deal that means a border on either side of their country.

Ireland will absolutely not put up a border and fudge themselves out of the Good Friday Agreement - how many companies will invest in a terrorist hotspot?

I'm no legal constitutional expert, but each and every EU member nation will be signed up to maintain the integrity of the customs union. So if we have imports of beef with steroids from the US we have to abide by EU law and not let that beef enter the customs union. Ireland will be exactly the same. It will have to maintain the customs union. A customs union is all about the external border. It is a fundamental to allow a customs union to function.

The UK is in the driving seat because it can choose which type of EU deal/exit we get. Pre-vote Farage and others suggested a Norway exit where we'd be in the EU customs union. The good friday agreement would have stayed in place and Ireland would have been exactly as it is now. If the UK chooses to leave the EU customs union then it dumps Ireland in the shi1.

You can try and play games but at the end of the day it is the UK who are in control of this. We - or our government - are the ones who have a choice of which kind of deal we go for with the EU. Not Ireland. They don't have a choice.

Maybe people forget or are unaware: more than 3,000 Brits have been killed due to this border, and it took 30 years to broker peace.

 

[DTA]

I think a border poll will happen before things get out of hand, to be honest.

The UK mainland might even be first to experience civil unrest if warnings are to be believed. When the wine runs out is my prediction.

I'm not sure the ROI would be so keen on reunification at this point in time. Apart from the financial aspect of it, at a time of Brexit flux. they would also have to deal with the sectarian issues that are at the moment the UK's problem. As the DUP etc, are unlikely to peacefully accept any poll that leads to Ireland uniting. That will take a few more generations before a peaceful transition would be in anyway possible. More likely that Scotland will leave the union via IR2 vote imho.

You maybe right about the wine though.

 

[scaramanga]

After Oct 31st the backstop will be pre-requirement to every trade deal the UK has with the EU. And the divorce payment. And Gibraltar. And fishing rights and whatever else the EU27 want. Everything is back on the table in the event of a no deal. And this negotiation will last for years and years.

And during that time we will be able to move goods into the EU without regulation as I don't believe they'll put up a border

 

[scaramanga]

Nothing will get through parliament as it stands.

Quite, which is the best thing about this plan - we just do nothing

 

[scaramanga]

That's a great thread thanks... It actually means that what @scaramanga was saying is factually false and adds weight to what I was saying about Ireland actually being in a great position to replace The UK as as the transatlantic bridge to the EU... As long as the integrity of the CU and SM is upheld... So they would absolutely put a border on NI.

It doesn't tell me anything I hadn't already read, plus a couple of digs at someone who I assume fudged his wife, given the level of obvious spite.

Either that or one of those that dislikes success. If it weren't for the age gap I'd suggest Digby-Jones bullied him at school - plenty clearly did.

 

[scaramanga]

I'm no legal constitutional expert, but each and every EU member nation will be signed up to maintain the integrity of the customs union. So if we have imports of beef with steroids from the US we have to abide by EU law and not let that beef enter the customs union. Ireland will be exactly the same. It will have to maintain the customs union. A customs union is all about the external border. It is a fundamental to allow a customs union to function.

The UK is in the driving seat because it can choose which type of EU deal/exit we get. Pre-vote Farage and others suggested a Norway exit where we'd be in the EU customs union. The good friday agreement would have stayed in place and Ireland would have been exactly as it is now. If the UK chooses to leave the EU customs union then it dumps Ireland in the shi1.

You can try and play games but at the end of the day it is the UK who are in control of this. We - or our government - are the ones who have a choice of which kind of deal we go for with the EU. Not Ireland. They don't have a choice.

Maybe people forget or are unaware: more than 3,000 Brits have been killed due to this border, and it took 30 years to broker peace.

I understand how borders work. My point is that the EU will not put a binder between Ireland and NI, if the UK doesn't, as it's too politically sensitive. They will not want to be the end of any possibility of unification, they will not want to be the cause of violence and they will not want to be seen to be dumping a member in the brick, just to keep their bureauzone intact.