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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

I'm sure Trump is flexible....look at his Vice president.

He'll probably see it as an opportunity
He's unpredictable. That's what he is. His reaction could be anywhere on the scale from:
- I like that Angela Ray...man? Mer? She's got balls. Get her over here I want her in the Whitehouse.
To:
- F*** the UK and that Rayman and Larry I want 20% tariffs on all their imports.
 
Given that his own Vice President elect has in the not-so-distant past called him “America’s Hitler”, while Marco Rubio (due to be appointed Secretary of State) called him “a con man” and made jokes about the size of his hands, I’d say Starmer should sleep pretty easy.

Trump is a transactional fascist; if there’s something in it for him to form a relationship with Starmer then he will.
It doesn't really matter though does it. If I thought the CEO of our biggest client was a complete tosspiece and I voiced those opinions in that sort of manner, I'd be (rightly) fired and likely wouldn't be able to get a job in the industry again. I go back to many politicians holding us in complete contempt by failing to adopt the most basic standards of professionalism and common decency and think it's acceptable to act like a bunch of 16 year olds at a frat party. Defending her and lammy and the others on this is defending the indefensible and I'm sure you'd all have a very different view if this was a Tory or reform MP.

And why allow Trump particularly to turn you into a frothing teenager? Has she said anything about the King of Saudi Arabia who orders journalists that don't agree with him to be tracked down, killed and cut into pieces? And who treats women as second class citizens?

What about Italy's right wing government?

Do you really think it's in all our interests to have these brainless gobbrick cretins running amock on our TV screens gobbing off whatever they like about whichever world leaders they don't happen to fancy?
 
Guys, I get the sentiment and as SkipRat says, we've already drawn ourselves closer to Asia/Pacific by joining CPTPP. That's economics right?

But militarily, nobody can lay a glove on the yanks still.

We probably spend the most on defence and we have as a result the most powerful military capability in Europe. We have recently invested in building two carrier strike groups. But let's put that into context.

The QE carriers ARE the largest and most advanced ships ever built by the royal navy. Between them in a crisis situation they can deploy probably a max 30-40 aircraft each, which will probably amount to 40 F35Bs plus a mix of attack, defence, early warning and troop transport helicopters. They can also deploy about 1,500 royal marine commandos each in a war time situation.

France has one aircraft carrier that is comparable to the QE class.

Italy has 2 light aircraft carriers. These are comparable to the old invincible class anti submarine carriers that the royal navy used to run.

And that's it. That's all folks for the whole of western Europe.

You want to cosy up to Asia/Pacific countries?

Great, you can add in Japan, South Korea and Australia. They run 6 helicopter carriers between them.

Japan recently converted her two helicopter carriers to be able to accept F35Bs but the ships are much smaller than the QE and it is likely that an F35B taking off and landing from these shorter helicopter carriers would not be able to carry the full fuel and payload that they would when being launched and recovered from the QE class carriers. You're also not going to be able to carry or maintain in combat a full air squadron like our carriers can, with the airlifts, maintenance and engineering bays which were designed to maintain a fixed wing airwing in sustained combat operations where aircraft might be returning damaged and require patching up and relaunching without returning to port.

The Japanese FYI are forbidden by their constitution for maintaining a military for offensive purposes therefore they don't have carrier strike capability (I.e. they haven't built the support ships necessary to support and defend the carriers in hostile waters as that is a "force projection" design and therefore forbidden.

The Japanese navy is designed to operate in coastal waters around Japan.

Why am i saying all of this?

Well te context is in all of that, that we add all those countries force projection capabilites together and we still come up short versus the US marine corps force projection capability. Yes, not their navy. Their marine corps, who run STOVL carriers carrying the F35B and all the supporting shebang with it.

Only France and us have force projection capable nuclear weapons, i.e. submarine launched, multi-warhead ICBMs capable of hitting any target on the globe.

So distancing ourselves from the Yankee doodles in the face of a newly aggressive Russia, China, North Korea and Iran is, I would say kind of "have a word with yourselves" talk.
Trump is in Putin's pocket, so militarily NATO is going to have to learn to cope without America. Probably a UK-French axis, with an emerging German presence. We should probably invite Brazil, Mexico, Australia and others to join.

China, Korea and Iran arent expansionist beyond their boarders (if you accept China sees Taiwan and Nepal as being internal matters). Its only Russia that needs actively checking
 
Trump is in Putin's pocket, so militarily NATO is going to have to learn to cope without America. Probably a UK-French axis, with an emerging German presence. We should probably invite Brazil, Mexico, Australia and others to join.

China, Korea and Iran arent expansionist beyond their boarders (if you accept China sees Taiwan and Nepal as being internal matters). Its only Russia that needs actively checking
China has been throwing huge economic and military support over the fence to Russia. Hong Kong and Chinese manufactured parts are consistently being found by thr Ukrainians in Russian missile debris while China has funded the ramping up of Russia's military industrial complex and ensured western sanctions have failed to have the desired impact. North Korea has been supplying Russia with tonnes of ammunition and buying Russian oil. It's now deployed an estimated 10,000 troops directly into the Ukraine conflict. Iran has long sought to project power via proxy paramilitary forces across the middle east. Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, these are all Iranian militia forces. Our navy has been involved in shooting down Iranian missiles and drones fired at commercial shipping and a few years ago had to deploy frigates to escort British oil tankers after Iran started boarding and detaining oil shipments. Iran has also been heavily supporting Russian war efforts in Ukraine and it is thought Russia in exchange has agreed to aid their nuclear programmes and supply advanced weaponry to their militias. That's why we won't let Ukraine use western missiles to strike Russia, we are not afraid of direct Russian escalation. The Houthis now are launching attacks with relatively crude anti ship missiles and drones. Even a direct hit would be lucky to sink a large commercial ship. They're being shot down by western navy ships in the area. An indirect Russian escalation that would be very likely is supplying Iran and the Houthis with advanced hypersonic antiship missiles and counter measure decoys to enable the evasion of western naval air defences and one-shot sink even large vessels. This would even put western warships in danger and may lead to a withdrawal of commercial shipping from those lanes which would have a devastating inflationary impact on European economies.
 
It doesn't really matter though does it. If I thought the CEO of our biggest client was a complete tosspiece and I voiced those opinions in that sort of manner, I'd be (rightly) fired and likely wouldn't be able to get a job in the industry again. I go back to many politicians holding us in complete contempt by failing to adopt the most basic standards of professionalism and common decency and think it's acceptable to act like a bunch of 16 year olds at a frat party. Defending her and lammy and the others on this is defending the indefensible and I'm sure you'd all have a very different view if this was a Tory or reform MP.

And why allow Trump particularly to turn you into a frothing teenager? Has she said anything about the King of Saudi Arabia who orders journalists that don't agree with him to be tracked down, killed and cut into pieces? And who treats women as second class citizens?

What about Italy's right wing government?

Do you really think it's in all our interests to have these brainless gobbrick cretins running amock on our TV screens gobbing off whatever they like about whichever world leaders they don't happen to fancy?
They’re “gobbling off about whichever world leaders they like” but then you seem to be criticising them for not saying things about Saudi Arabia and Italy’s leaders.

 
They’re “gobbling off about whichever world leaders they like” but then you seem to be criticising them for not saying things about Saudi Arabia and Italy’s leaders.

I'm not criticising them for not gobbing off about Saudi Arabia, I'm pointing out that if they are like this with Trump they'll soon isolate Britain on the global stage. It's unprofessional and unacceptable behaviour. Ed Davey's speech in the commons was a disgrace too. It's in the interest of every UK citizen that our politicians of all stripes work with other country's politicians or leaders in a professional manner.

I'm afraid Labour are particularly bad for it. That Zara Sultana posted a picture on X not long back of a leaflet and pack from Tom Tugendhat which was his case for being voted onto a parliamentary select committee. The picture showed the items in a bin and she proudly declared "some tories trying to get me to vote them onto committees but I will never vote for a Tory so this is where they all end up"

The ***king child doesn't realise or doesn't give a f*** that select committees are cross party and he is pitching for her vote to fill one of the tory allocated slots. She doesn't vote for a tory, a tory gets put on that committee one way pr another and she is denying her constituents (who voted for a left wing Labour MP) the opportunity ro try and engineer the tory more to the left or more malleable to getting the committee to come to the conclusions she is in favour of.

And why is that? I'll tell you why, it's because she's an entitled, ignorant, self-obsessed little child that is more interested in scoring points on social media than in doing her job as an MP with an ounce of professionalism and sense of office.
 
He's unpredictable. That's what he is. His reaction could be anywhere on the scale from:
- I like that Angela Ray...man? Mer? She's got balls. Get her over here I want her in the Whitehouse.
To:
- F*** the UK and that Rayman and Larry I want 20% tariffs on all their imports.

I think you're wrong.
He absolutely knows who is going where and has done for a while. Writing off his choices as unpredictability is as dangerous as the choices themselves IMO.
The ONLY outlier (for me) is when his ego gets hurt, bye Musk. Otherwise this has all been in the works.
 
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But militarily, nobody can lay a glove on the yanks still.

We probably spend the most on defence and we have as a result the most powerful military capability in Europe. We have recently invested in building two carrier strike groups. But let's put that into context.
A military expert on a recent podcast said the UK only has enough ammunition for about 3 days of real fighting.
We went on a 10 day exercise and ran out of ammunition after 6 or 7 days IIRC.
We definitely need 'someone' to look after us, as the British Army has shrivelled.
 
A military expert on a recent podcast said the UK only has enough ammunition for about 3 days of real fighting.
We went on a 10 day exercise and ran out of ammunition after 6 or 7 days IIRC.
We definitely need 'someone' to look after us, as the British Army has shrivelled.
Rings a bell. Was it Mike Martin (ex-miltary and now socdem politician)?
 


A military expert on a recent podcast said the UK only has enough ammunition for about 3 days of real fighting.
We went on a 10 day exercise and ran out of ammunition after 6 or 7 days IIRC.
We definitely need 'someone' to look after us, as the British Army has shrivelled.
It doesn't help that we've given pretty much all of our ammunition reserves to Ukraine which they chewed through in a few months. And this is the thing. Starmer and Macron met the other day to pledge unwavering support for Ukraine in the event of a withdrawal of US support.

These are empty words from two politicians that particularly specialise in empty words:

Does Starmer's unwavering support include any of the following:
- putting the UK's defence manufacturing and procurement on a war footing to make or procure the level of arms ans munitions necessary to a) make a blind bit of difference to Ukraine b) replenish our own military emptier stockpiles? NO.
- Committing to increase long-term defence spending to 2.5% of GDP within this Parliamebt or even at any confirmed date (2.5% is actually the minimum membership requirement for NATO membership which we haven't met for years)? NO.

It goes back to my original post about Russia on here. I'm sorry but I'm totally with Farage and Trump on this: it's not being a Putin apologist to acknowledge the following facts:
- We poked the bear. The talks around Ukraine joining NATO were provocative. There is no way we would accept Ireland joining a treaty that had been established to fight the UK, nor would any other country tolerate a similar event. It's why Finland and Sweden committed to neutrality for decades, to preserve peace. When Putin amassed 200,000 troops on the border we had the opportunity to de-escalate and provide firm commitments to retaining Ukraine's neutrality. We decided to call Putin's bluff instead.
- Many global south and east countries are not on the west's side on Russia for that reason: they saw the western overtures to Ukraine as typical western imperialist overreach. So countries like India have continued to trade with Russia and even conducted joint military exercises with them. If the west had made the de-escalative commitments noted above and Putin still invaded I doubt this would have happened to the same extent.
- For the same reason we saying we can't afford Ukraine to lose, China can't afford Russia to lose. If Russia loses in Ukraine and is humiliated, it will likely lead to a collapse in Putin's authoritarian communist influenced regime, it will possibly end in opponents taking over that favour a western outlook, maybe even harbouring ambitions to join the EU, which would isolate China geopolitically and create a significant military and economic threat right on her doorstep. China has ramped up its military industrial Base to supply Russia with almost endless supplies. Chins is also engaging in hybrid economic warfare to destabilise European economies.
- Meanwhile we are not willing to do what it takes to defeat Russia in Ukraine, despite the rhetoric coming from Biden, Macron and various British PMs around the need to do so.
- We are only willing to finance and supply enough to stop a rapid Ukrainian collapse and rapid surrender. What we are seeing is a slow but continuous and recently accelerating Russian advance. Meanwhile Russia's allies have started ramping up support to ensure the deal is sealed with Iran supplying its stocks of medium range cruise missiles and North Korea going so far as to deploy troops on the ground - something only Macron and Johnson have discussed doing and only in the context of a front line Ukrainian collapse leading to a rapid Russian advance towards Kyiv. Johnson's intervention on that front occurred this week and that's because some military analysts are saying such a collapse is potentially on the verge of happening regardless of what Trump does.
- As discussed, because we've been supplying Ukraine without increasing our own defence spending and industrial base to match demand we now don't have any ammunition ourselves and have left ourselves incapable of providing a meaningful intervention without US support and left ourselves vulnerable into the bargain.
- Given we were seemingly never willing to do what it would take to defeat Russia, but have nevertheless pushed Ukraine to continue the fight and given it just enough to stay in there, rocking against the ropes but getting up everything their knocked down, commenting on how brave they are as they stagger about the ring slowly getting punched into early onset dementia. I'll tell you now, we are complicit in all the death and destruction going on there with no real end game or actual plan outside measly words. The whole thing is a total disgrace.
 



It doesn't help that we've given pretty much all of our ammunition reserves to Ukraine which they chewed through in a few months. And this is the thing. Starmer and Macron met the other day to pledge unwavering support for Ukraine in the event of a withdrawal of US support.

These are empty words from two politicians that particularly specialise in empty words:

Does Starmer's unwavering support include any of the following:
- putting the UK's defence manufacturing and procurement on a war footing to make or procure the level of arms ans munitions necessary to a) make a blind bit of difference to Ukraine b) replenish our own military emptier stockpiles? NO.
- Committing to increase long-term defence spending to 2.5% of GDP within this Parliamebt or even at any confirmed date (2.5% is actually the minimum membership requirement for NATO membership which we haven't met for years)? NO.

It goes back to my original post about Russia on here. I'm sorry but I'm totally with Farage and Trump on this: it's not being a Putin apologist to acknowledge the following facts:
- We poked the bear. The talks around Ukraine joining NATO were provocative. There is no way we would accept Ireland joining a treaty that had been established to fight the UK, nor would any other country tolerate a similar event. It's why Finland and Sweden committed to neutrality for decades, to preserve peace. When Putin amassed 200,000 troops on the border we had the opportunity to de-escalate and provide firm commitments to retaining Ukraine's neutrality. We decided to call Putin's bluff instead.
- Many global south and east countries are not on the west's side on Russia for that reason: they saw the western overtures to Ukraine as typical western imperialist overreach. So countries like India have continued to trade with Russia and even conducted joint military exercises with them. If the west had made the de-escalative commitments noted above and Putin still invaded I doubt this would have happened to the same extent.
- For the same reason we saying we can't afford Ukraine to lose, China can't afford Russia to lose. If Russia loses in Ukraine and is humiliated, it will likely lead to a collapse in Putin's authoritarian communist influenced regime, it will possibly end in opponents taking over that favour a western outlook, maybe even harbouring ambitions to join the EU, which would isolate China geopolitically and create a significant military and economic threat right on her doorstep. China has ramped up its military industrial Base to supply Russia with almost endless supplies. Chins is also engaging in hybrid economic warfare to destabilise European economies.
- Meanwhile we are not willing to do what it takes to defeat Russia in Ukraine, despite the rhetoric coming from Biden, Macron and various British PMs around the need to do so.
- We are only willing to finance and supply enough to stop a rapid Ukrainian collapse and rapid surrender. What we are seeing is a slow but continuous and recently accelerating Russian advance. Meanwhile Russia's allies have started ramping up support to ensure the deal is sealed with Iran supplying its stocks of medium range cruise missiles and North Korea going so far as to deploy troops on the ground - something only Macron and Johnson have discussed doing and only in the context of a front line Ukrainian collapse leading to a rapid Russian advance towards Kyiv. Johnson's intervention on that front occurred this week and that's because some military analysts are saying such a collapse is potentially on the verge of happening regardless of what Trump does.
- As discussed, because we've been supplying Ukraine without increasing our own defence spending and industrial base to match demand we now don't have any ammunition ourselves and have left ourselves incapable of providing a meaningful intervention without US support and left ourselves vulnerable into the bargain.
- Given we were seemingly never willing to do what it would take to defeat Russia, but have nevertheless pushed Ukraine to continue the fight and given it just enough to stay in there, rocking against the ropes but getting up everything their knocked down, commenting on how brave they are as they stagger about the ring slowly getting punched into early onset dementia. I'll tell you now, we are complicit in all the death and destruction going on there with no real end game or actual plan outside measly words. The whole thing is a total disgrace.

I think the upshot of it all is that Putin has played everyone very well for a long time.
Before Crimea/Don Bass, no-one really took Putin's signals or movements as seriously as they should've. What a major series of missteps, as the intelligence was always there.
 
Guys, I get the sentiment and as SkipRat says, we've already drawn ourselves closer to Asia/Pacific by joining CPTPP. That's economics right?

But militarily, nobody can lay a glove on the yanks still.

We probably spend the most on defence and we have as a result the most powerful military capability in Europe. We have recently invested in building two carrier strike groups. But let's put that into context.

The QE carriers ARE the largest and most advanced ships ever built by the royal navy. Between them in a crisis situation they can deploy probably a max 30-40 aircraft each, which will probably amount to 40 F35Bs plus a mix of attack, defence, early warning and troop transport helicopters. They can also deploy about 1,500 royal marine commandos each in a war time situation.

France has one aircraft carrier that is comparable to the QE class.

Italy has 2 light aircraft carriers. These are comparable to the old invincible class anti submarine carriers that the royal navy used to run.

And that's it. That's all folks for the whole of western Europe.

You want to cosy up to Asia/Pacific countries?

Great, you can add in Japan, South Korea and Australia. They run 6 helicopter carriers between them.

Japan recently converted her two helicopter carriers to be able to accept F35Bs but the ships are much smaller than the QE and it is likely that an F35B taking off and landing from these shorter helicopter carriers would not be able to carry the full fuel and payload that they would when being launched and recovered from the QE class carriers. You're also not going to be able to carry or maintain in combat a full air squadron like our carriers can, with the airlifts, maintenance and engineering bays which were designed to maintain a fixed wing airwing in sustained combat operations where aircraft might be returning damaged and require patching up and relaunching without returning to port.

The Japanese FYI are forbidden by their constitution for maintaining a military for offensive purposes therefore they don't have carrier strike capability (I.e. they haven't built the support ships necessary to support and defend the carriers in hostile waters as that is a "force projection" design and therefore forbidden.

The Japanese navy is designed to operate in coastal waters around Japan.

Why am i saying all of this?

Well te context is in all of that, that we add all those countries force projection capabilites together and we still come up short versus the US marine corps force projection capability. Yes, not their navy. Their marine corps, who run STOVL carriers carrying the F35B and all the supporting shebang with it.

Only France and us have force projection capable nuclear weapons, i.e. submarine launched, multi-warhead ICBMs capable of hitting any target on the globe.

So distancing ourselves from the Yankee doodles in the face of a newly aggressive Russia, China, North Korea and Iran is, I would say kind of "have a word with yourselves" talk.

Sounds like you’re an advocate for European collaboration on defence 😂
 
China has been throwing huge economic and military support over the fence to Russia. Hong Kong and Chinese manufactured parts are consistently being found by thr Ukrainians in Russian missile debris while China has funded the ramping up of Russia's military industrial complex and ensured western sanctions have failed to have the desired impact. North Korea has been supplying Russia with tonnes of ammunition and buying Russian oil. It's now deployed an estimated 10,000 troops directly into the Ukraine conflict. Iran has long sought to project power via proxy paramilitary forces across the middle east. Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, these are all Iranian militia forces. Our navy has been involved in shooting down Iranian missiles and drones fired at commercial shipping and a few years ago had to deploy frigates to escort British oil tankers after Iran started boarding and detaining oil shipments. Iran has also been heavily supporting Russian war efforts in Ukraine and it is thought Russia in exchange has agreed to aid their nuclear programmes and supply advanced weaponry to their militias. That's why we won't let Ukraine use western missiles to strike Russia, we are not afraid of direct Russian escalation. The Houthis now are launching attacks with relatively crude anti ship missiles and drones. Even a direct hit would be lucky to sink a large commercial ship. They're being shot down by western navy ships in the area. An indirect Russian escalation that would be very likely is supplying Iran and the Houthis with advanced hypersonic antiship missiles and counter measure decoys to enable the evasion of western naval air defences and one-shot sink even large vessels. This would even put western warships in danger and may lead to a withdrawal of commercial shipping from those lanes which would have a devastating inflationary impact on European economies.
Shipping is already going around Africa in the main isn’t it?

Only Chinese registered ships are getting a free pass through the Red Sea.
 
Sounds like you’re an advocate for European collaboration on defence 😂
I am absolutely an advocate for European collaboration on defence. We've allowed ourselves to become reliant on the US for defence. I hope the UK govt continue the funding for Tempest which is the proposed euro fighter replacement and involves us collaborating with European partners.

We (Europe) need to uplift our defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP.

In the UK we need to complete the UK carrier strike programme. This includes funding the additional R&D we are doing to look into retrofitting both carriers with nuclear powered engines and "cats and traps" to enable full interoperability with allies, the ability to deploy a wider variety of fixed wing aircraft including drones.

We need to complete the remaining builds and deployments of the relevant escort and support ships.

We need to uplift troop numbers in the army back to over 100,000 standing soldiers, replenishing our ammunition stockpiles.
We need to sort the remaining issues with the Ajax programme and complete the challenger 3 programme.

For the RAF we need to invest in the remaining F35 order in full and the tempest programme as well as plugging our AWACs and anti submarine gap.

Ideally we'd invest in a long range bomber programme to plug a gap we haven't filled since the Vulcan decommissioning.

I've probably missed a load of stuff but that's the key things to get done to get back to near our early 80s capability to fight an independent war against a well equipped adversery as we did in the Falklamds.
 
Shipping is already going around Africa in the main isn’t it?

Only Chinese registered ships are getting a free pass through the Red Sea.
A lot of shipping companies are diverting around Africa but plenty still trying the red sea route now the west are patrolling with warships which are actively shooting down the missiles and drones.
 
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