Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[ricky2tricky4city]

Tory leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt has warned that his party will be committing "political suicide" if it tries to push through a no-deal Brexit.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the move to no-deal would result in a general election, which could see Labour take power.

The foreign secretary is one of 10 people seeking to replace Theresa May.

One leadership contender, Esther McVey, said "political suicide" would be not leaving the EU at the end of October.

The deadline the EU has set for Brexit is 31 October.

The official leadership race for Conservative party leader gets under way in early June, after Theresa May stands down - but jostling between candidates has already begun.

The winner, expected to be named by late July, will also become prime minister.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr Hunt said the "only solution" to deliver Brexit was to change the withdrawal agreement that Prime Minister Theresa May has negotiated with the EU, which has been voted down by MPs three times.

The EU has consistently refused to reopen the negotiations, but the foreign secretary said creating a new UK negotiating team - including members of Northern Ireland's DUP and members of the Tory pro-Brexit European Research Group, as well as representatives from Scotland and Wales - would "give the EU the confidence that any offer can be delivered through Parliament".

He claimed the main issue that needed addressing in the withdrawal agreement was the Irish backstop - the policy to prevent a hard border returning between Ireland and Northern Ireland that has proved controversial with a number of Brexiteers.

"If you go to [the EU] with the right tone, with a deal that recognises their legitimate concerns over the border of Ireland, if you go with a negotiating team that gives them the confidence you can deliver with a majority in the House of Commons, you have the prospect - I don't say the guarantee - but you have the prospect of getting a deal," he said.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph, Mr Hunt also warned the Conservatives would be "annihilated" and "face extinction" if there was a general election before Brexit happened.

He says he has always believed that no-deal is better than no Brexit but warns that a prime minister advocating no-deal would risk losing a confidence vote in Parliament - so committing to a general election.

"Trying to deliver no deal through a general election is not a solution; it is political suicide," he writes, adding it would "probably put Jeremy Corbyn in No 10 by Christmas".

New contender joins race
Housing Minister Kit Malthouse has become the latest Tory MP to join the race to become party leader.

Writing in the Sun newspaper, Mr Malthouse said the campaign "cannot be about the same old faces" and described himself as "the new face, with fresh new ideas".

He told BBC News he was "the only candidate that has proven the ability to unify MPs around a Brexit plan that could deliver us out of this jam", after he bought together Leave and Remain-supporting Conservative MPs in January to devise an alternative Brexit proposal known as the "Malthouse Compromise".

Mr Malthouse - who voted to leave the EU - said his "primary objective" was to secure a deal before the 31 October deadline, but said it was still necessary to prepare for the possibility of no deal.

Meanwhile, fellow leadership-hopeful Mr Gove has pledged to allow EU nationals in the UK at the time of the referendum to apply for citizenship free of charge.

He has said he wants to give as many as three million people from elsewhere in the EU who live in the UK an easier path to citizenship after Brexit.

As part of the plan, he would remove the requirement of EU citizens to provide proof of their right to be here - getting rid of the so-called 'settled status' scheme.

A source close to the environment secretary said: "This is simply the right thing to do - honouring the promise of Vote Leave that EU nationals studying, working and living in the UK were welcome to stay."

Meanwhile, Tory rival, International Development Secretary Rory Stewart, is promising a "listening exercise" on Brexit.

And The Sun reports that rival contender Health Secretary Matt Hanrooster has written to ITV, BBC, Sky and Channel 4 to ask them to broadcast a live debate between those vying for the Tory leadership.



Theres going to be a lot of this, isnt there?

Lot of 'political suicide' going on.

That's why I say it's best for Labour to (take the critiscm and) watch from the sidelines. We're at an impasse but it's not their impasse.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Lot of 'political suicide' going on.

That's why I say it's best for Labour to (take the critiscm and) watch from the sidelines. We're at an impasse but it's not their impasse.

I tend to think if anyone has the chance to break it, they are obliged to do so.

Though I also think were they to push a GE we'll just end up in the same/opposite position as now. Minority Labour Gvt propped up by nutty nationalists.

 

[SpurMeUp]

These days people are generally not prepared to go through any pain to reach something or somewhere better...they just don't have the appetite for it. Collective spirit/motivation/direction just isn't there, (probably a product of the self-interested, self-centred, screen addicted nation) combine that with a lack of Poch/Levy type dream teams to lead the way and there is (sadly) little point, and most likely a dangerous proposition.

You have to be careful with what you perceive to be downsides. Most first time buyers in the South-East are pushing 40...50% reduction = yes please. It's an example of re-balancing, one of the main reasons for all the recent political turmoil...the gap between the haves and have nots growing and often times perceived unfairly so.

Currencies have forever and a day fluctuated, many times in our favour meaning we can feel rather rich abroad. Recent times not so much, but certainly no further than feeling things are on a par with costs at home. Besides think of all the tourists coming into our country thinking 'england is expensive'..well boo hoo if it s a bit round the other way, we'd have to cut our cloth accordingly and of course the kicker is tourism here would benefit.

The NHS will need help, study foreign systems of PMI and cherry pick those that make sense. Complete potential opt out for some people and generous tax breaks for companies that go all in on looking after their staff.

The de-centralisation economically from London is worth investigation especially if we go it alone, industry, agriculture, will have to return as the service industry will contract. Long term vision required though. Real money creation rather than the thin air model. If we are worried about food and energy, you make them your starting points.

Good post.

"These days people are generally not prepared to go through any pain to reach something or somewhere better"

What is the "somewhere better"? If there was a believable Brexit vision of a better reality, than we could weigh up the pain vs gain. That there is little to no gain is the issue. Can you outline what we gain? Farage, UKIP, ERG, have not managed to. I get that if you are not happy with the status quo you want to shake things up. But that needs to be focused on the UK, not the EU and damaging UK trade. Which basicly makes everyone worse off.

Housing price is not that simple. People would earn less too. 50% drops would be accomanied by job losses and people being paid less. So it would not be good for anyone. Those who have money now would still be in control. Those who don't would lose work faster and feel the pinch quicker.

Re. Currencies. A strong currency is a positive valuation of a nation. There are some postives in a weaker currency - especially for selling things abroad that are made in the UK. But that and increased tourism is it. For everthing else, a stronger pound is a good thing. We are now paying more for food and all imports. +15-20% is a decent amount. Everything from computer equipment to imported food is that much more expensive now. Never mind in a no deal exit.

I don't think you do get what no deal means. You want to make out it will all be alright, who cares about the economy and NHS. It would signal a massive degrading of the UK. A no deal exit would be the end of Great Britian an international force, a process that started when we lost our colonies. The EU provided an alternative to colonial rule. To keep France, us, Holland etc in control and at the global table while our empires disapeared. A no deal exit basically leaves the UK as a peripheral nation. And has seismic implications for the economy. All the Japanese investment we had moves. US companies looking for a presence in Europe go to Amsterdam or Paris. And the shake down means less for everyone. It would not be armageddon overnight. There won't be anything too dramatic. Just a steady degrading of the UK probably over years as investment and jobs ease away.

Will there be fresh oppotunities. Maybe yes. But no one can describe them. Why is that? And more to the point, why are we not accessing these oppotunies now? Germany and Italy export huge amounts more to non-EU nations than we do now. From within the EU.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Good post.

"These days people are generally not prepared to go through any pain to reach something or somewhere better"

What is the "somewhere better"? If there was a believable Brexit vision of a better reality, than we could weigh up the pain vs gain. That there is little to no gain is the issue. Can you outline what we gain? Farage, UKIP, ERG, have not managed to. I get that if you are not happy with the status quo you want to shake things up. But that needs to be focused on the UK, not the EU and damaging UK trade. Which basicly makes everyone worse off.

Housing price is not that simple. People would earn less too. 50% drops would be accomanied by job losses and people being paid less. So it would not be good for anyone. Those who have money now would still be in control. Those who don't would lose work faster and feel the pinch quicker.

Re. Currencies. A strong currency is a positive valuation of a nation. There are some postives in a weaker currency - especially for selling things abroad that are made in the UK. But that and increased tourism is it. For everthing else, a stronger pound is a good thing. We are now paying more for food and all imports. +15-20% is a decent amount. Everything from computer equipment to imported food is that much more expensive now. Never mind in a no deal exit.

I don't think you do get what no deal means. You want to make out it will all be alright, who cares about the economy and NHS. It would signal a massive degrading of the UK. A no deal exit would be the end of Great Britian an international force, a process that started when we lost our colonies. The EU provided an alternative to colonial rule. To keep France, us, Holland etc in control and at the global table while our empires disapeared. A no deal exit basically leaves the UK as a peripheral nation. And has seismic implications for the economy. All the Japanese investment we had moves. US companies looking for a presence in Europe go to Amsterdam or Paris. And the shake down means less for everyone. It would not be armageddon overnight. There won't be anything too dramatic. Just a steady degrading of the UK probably over years as investment and jobs ease away.

Will there be fresh oppotunities. Maybe yes. But no one can describe them. Why is that? And more to the point, why are we not accessing these oppotunies now? Germany and Italy export huge amounts more to non-EU nations than we do now. From within the EU.

If you read my other posts I'm certainly not advocating No Deal (in fact I'm more aligned to staying but not for the reasons you do) and I'm not saying it will 'be ok' ...in this instance I was just adding some balance to issues you perceive would happen.

You're very non accepting to any counter point and do have the staunch remainer shouty gene. I get your exasperated at the ridiculousness of this whole thing but the points you make about what WILL happen with no deal are no more gauranteed to happen than points made from the other side.

It really is looking like a binary choice now, so we will soon find out.

FWIW I don't really care either way, I tend to position myself in life to be as immune as possible from politics, policy, punitive taxes, and the consumer economy.

As long as I don't see anyone coming up the beach with Kalashnikov's, I'll concentrate my energy's and worries on my family, friends, neighbours, community and of course Spurs!

 

[SpurMeUp]

The problem for No Deal is it's always been left there as the undesirable (somesay Armageddon) option. There has been no educated comment from the politicians that actually do think it's an option.

Once again drowned out in soundbites and noise.

Remember No Deal was better than a bad deal at one point. They are sh.it scared of No Deal...end of.
Basically because that's what has been shouted in their ear. It would be a bold step, but we don't have anyone bold.

Maybe you'd like to try? There is a reason why no one can outline why it'd be great for the UK. Becuase it wouldn't be!

As one example, if you pursued a no deal, what would you say to the 200,000 people employed in car manufacturing in the UK? Or those at Airbus? Get a new job. Without a trade deal these companies would have to move into the EU.

 

[SpurMeUp]

If you read my other posts I'm certainly not advocating No Deal (in fact I'm more aligned to staying but not for the reasons you do) and I'm not saying it will 'be ok' ...in this instance I was just adding some balance to issues you perceive would happen.

You're very non accepting to any counter point and do have the staunch remainer shouty gene. I get your exasperated at the ridiculousness of this whole thing but the points you make about what WILL happen with no deal are no more gauranteed to happen than points made from the other side.

I am totally open to counter points. I find myself making them to try and ballance my own arguements. If you have any counter points that stand up - make them. If there aren't any that are obvious to make, it's not becuase I am not listening.

 

[Grays_1890]

Brexit is very much a thing. That is the problem. It was supposed to be easy. It ain’t. Farage, Stephen Hawkins, and Chuck Norris could be in charge of delivering Brexit and we’d be no better off.

What is it you see in 300 years? How will cutting off from neighbouring nations sort us out?

But you are right Brexit is a thing. The EU elections were proxy votes for or against Brexit. Therefore we need to let people vote for real on some kind of exit plan - when the cards are on the table and we can see exactly what will be delivered. Then we will vote and we will have a resolution one way or tother.
Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

The point I was making was that Brexit was not meant for now (when it has not even happened) nor for the next three months but for the long term future, I just plucked the 300 out of the air.

The cut off from Europe only happens because they want it that way, by default the EU and how its built makes it an inside only organisation which isn't very liberal, thats why I find it amazing when people say its anti inclusive voting out when infact the very nature of the EU is anti inclusive, unless you are in the gang, where as if you are out you are free to work with who and what you want, unless of course its the EU.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Maybe you'd like to try? There is a reason why no one can outline why it'd be great for the UK. Becuase it wouldn't be!

As one example, if you pursued a no deal, what would you say to the 200,000 people employed in car manufacturing in the UK? Or those at Airbus? Get a new job. Without a trade deal these companies would have to move into the EU.

It's not for me to try, there are far more prominent people that should be trying.

And besides any points raised you shout down with your matter of fact approach.

Eg clearly lower house prices would benefit many...and all you could reply for the second time is it would benefit no-one.

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

This is hilarious.

Ive lost count of the times Ive told you specifically (let alone spoken in general) - I am not a Tory. Not at all. Ideologically Id should really be more Lib Dem, but they are far from a party worth even discussing in the most part.

You "go after" people, do you? How does that fit with your lefty sensibilities exactly? Pretty well I would imagine.

Its the lefties with the aggression, the name calling, the superiority complex, the faux enlightenment, and the rather militant approach to discussion in this thread.

And you are a zealot, so it makes sense you would fill the part the best.

I dont like Labour. Havent since Blair. Not because I am a Tory. But because successive leaders and parties have utterly failed over the years. There is nothing there for me to support. Which is a shame because broadly I should be on board with at least half of what they are supposed to represent.

Corbyn? Bad news. Very bad news. And yet people have gone full L'ron Hubbard on him for some reason, damned if I can see why.

None of which means I support the Tories. And this is the fun bit, you are so far into your religion here you cant see past the "if theyre not a Corbynite they must be Conservative", can you?

There are plenty of Labour lefties on here I have nothing but respect for. I dont agree with all they say, but I certainly agree with at least some of it and always respect (and enjoy) their posts in discussion. And for those guys I apologise if they dont like this post.

Yawn!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[SpurMeUp]

It's not for me to try, there are far more prominent people that should be trying.

And besides any points raised you shout down with your matter of fact approach.

Eg clearly lower house prices would benefit many...and all you could reply for the second time is it would benefit no-one.

Why aren’t these more prominent people trying to outline a vision is a valid question.

I didn’t mean to shoot you down. I said here many times lower house prices could be good for the young (ironic as they are largely remain). But in a no deal exit that could be a false economy if you couldn’t find work. Point was houses prices won’t fall in isolation, it would be in connection with jobs moving out the city and less work too. Still you are right it’d be good for those who have been shoved out.

The housing crisis is a UK issue with many who make money from housing not wanting to build too many more homes. It’s a UK issue. And best addressed in the UK. Downgrading our economy is a less than perfect way to address housing needs I’m sure you’ll agree.




Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Rorschach]

I said it would not be easy but short term pain for long term gain was order of the day, we are voting for not the next 3 months but the next 300 years etc etc etc.

Where remain have dropped the ball, in my opinion, is the continued denial that Brexit it still a thing, even after last night regardless of how you spin it, Brexit as well as Remain is a live argument, but to ignore it to gain some political oneupmanship, is again to ignore whats infront of you.

And to answer to bold, Corbyn was so wrapped up in Brexit he offered neither Brexit or remain to his party in order to try and further his own political career and his party died a death.

Ultimately its one big cluster F--K on both sides, there is no getting away from that.

I know you picked 300 years as an arbitary figure but to even pick something in that ball park is frankly ridiculous. We're in the middle of the 6th mass extinction event. The next 10 years may decide the the fate of the species. If it ends in no deal, the next 10 years will be spent negotiating treaties while the planet kicks you repeatedly in the balls. If we are here in 300 years at all it will be a miracle.

 

[Hotshot-Tottenham]

.

Deleted. Answered the wrong question. Ironically.

 

[Hotshot-Tottenham]

Why would they? It's the kind of worst case deal that only a Remainer could have come up with.

You phrase it like the Leave side got cold feet - that's not the case. May just gave us all a deal that wasn't Leave and was worse than remaining.

Which gives the lie to the notion that there’s one, unified, over-arching brexit.

May’s deal is brexit. Legally, technically and factually. It’s just not leavey enough for some.

 

[Hotshot-Tottenham]

i am sorry that happened to you friend, there are racists in every corner but if you read this thread since the first vote you will see that it is either said or suggested that anyone who voted out was racist. Ignorance is in view wherever you look.

Honestly, seriously no-one is saying that. And if they are, they’re wrong.

Not all, or not even a majority of Brexit voters are racist.

I do believe it’s true to say that all racists are brexit voters.

The Leave campaigns even played into that pretty fudging overtly with their ‘76m Turks are coming’ and Farage’s refugee poster.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

May’s deal is brexit. Legally, technically and factually. It’s just not leavey enough for some.

This is, IMO, the absolute worst problem we have with Brexit.

People (in the general, not you) trying to subvert it on a technicality and leave us BINO and worse off.

IMHO its the worst of all possible outcomes, and yet the politicians and many a remainer are actively working toward it, its terrifying.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

I know you picked 300 years as an arbitary figure but to even pick something in that ball park is frankly ridiculous. We're in the middle of the 6th mass extinction event. The next 10 years may decide the the fate of the species. If it ends in no deal, the next 10 years will be spent negotiating treaties while the planet kicks you repeatedly in the balls. If we are here in 300 years at all it will be a miracle.

Jeez...even more important we win on Saturday then.

 

[scaramanga]

Which gives the lie to the notion that there’s one, unified, over-arching brexit.

May’s deal is brexit. Legally, technically and factually. It’s just not leavey enough for some.

I don't think her deal passes on any of those measures.

It was a stepping stone towards Brexit, not Brexit by any measure. It also created a unilateral negotiation method, by which the EU could simply refuse to deal any further and trap us in the status quo. She also gave away all negotiating points on day 0.

It was a worse position than we were already in and it certainly wasn't Brexit - not by any measure

 

[Rorschach]

This is, IMO, the absolute worst problem we have with Brexit.

People (in the general, not you) trying to subvert it on a technicality and leave us BINO and worse off.

IMHO its the worst of all possible outcomes, and yet the politicians and many a remainer are actively working toward it, its terrifying.

Did anyone campaign on no deal? As far as I can recall leave campaigned almost wholly on getting some sort of deal. Farage was all in for something like Norway. My point is that a soft brexit of some description was not a technicality but the general trust of the leave plan, and they had no preconceived notion of what it ultimately would be like. Only that there would a deal of some description (and it would be easy!). May's deal is a turd but all soft brexits are just different shaped turds IMO. Soft turds too.

 

[Rorschach]

Jeez...even more important we win on Saturday then.

We need to get a league title under our belts soon too.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

We need to get a league title under our belts soon too.

Stop ramping up the pressure!

We'll be 3-0 up on 85mins on Saturday and I bet the bloody world will end.