Performances over a season

[Craig_J]

Of course you can. What do you think led from the old "pint at the pub at half time" players to the Ronaldos and Bales of today?

Years and years of analysis, science, testing, theories, etc. If every other team had spent the last 50 years "over-analysing" football and we hadn't our club probably wouldn't even exist any more.

Tony Adams was one of the best cente backs in the league, if not the best and he was ****ed every game.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

In reply to the first bold bit: that isn't true. In the last two seasons Arsenal have had very good run-ins to the season, but their previous record suggests they don't prepare for that to be the case at the expense of bad starts. Remember in 2008 and 2011 they were in the title race until around March, then completely dropped off.

Second bold bit: so what you are suggesting is we played within ourselves/playing intelligently all/most of the season just so that we... could blitz a Sunderland team that had nothing to play for on the final day? Well, if we're taking risks with 37 matches just to ensure (and even that came last-minute due to Bale magic) we win the final one, that isn't a very safe approach.

Ultimately, though, do you really prefer seeing us play this way than we did in, say, 2011/12? The chances are we will get less points playing this way than we did in that season, because you can no longer just expect to play at 70% and win games in this league, it is more open and more difficult than ever. The difference is we play much worse football than we did in, say, 2011/12. And if we are to choose to play such dull football, I'd rather we did so if only we could get 95 points from it like Chelsea did in 2005. Instead, I'd be absolutely flabbergasted were we to surpass 70 again with this method.

In previous seasons it could have been the case that they played for maximum intensity earlier in the seasons before dropping off, and recently have decided that it is most important to be strong towards the end when a lot of teams will be on their holidays mentally and easier to pick off. To be honest I don't really know what Arsenal do, but planning to peak at certain points certainly happens a clubs whether it's at the beginning or the end or the middle, and their experiences don't change that.

No, I am not suggesting we played within ourselves all season so that we could blitz Sunderland on the final day. I am using that game as an example of us deciding to attack from the first whistle, as it was the strategy to do so. Usually we don't do that, but due to controlling our exertions we are able to decide when to do it on our terms. To be honest that game, even though it took a Bale screamer, it was one of the few home performances where I don't feel it was undeserved. But it didn't surprise me we attacked from the first whistle because the plan was clearly to put pressure on Arsenal as AVB acknowledged after the game.

I honestly do prefer to see us play this way, and will continue to do so if we continue to achieve more points (once this transition has taken place with lots of new players). Watching us year apart teams in 11/12 was great fun, I felt on top of the world watching Spurs, but watching us blow the advantage we had was one of the most depressing experiences of my life as a fan, because there was so much potential there and if managed better it could have really been something. But we shot our load early on and while we can complain we were unlucky in lots of games in that season, I've come to realise that it's no coincidence that the fine margins went against us continually. Everything that could go wrong, did. It was not exciting in the least. It was not swashbuckling. And this is where stats and analysis comes in, because if we can actually affect when we are going to exert ourselves to get an edge, then we should do it. Why would you not?

 

[BrainOfLevy]

You've articulated two very different points as per my previous post.

Let's take Swansea as an example. They've conceded goals in the following minutes:

01 - 10: 2
10 - 20: 1
20 - 30: 1
30 - 40: 3
40 - 50:
50 - 60: 2
60 - 70: 3
70 - 80: 1
80 - 90: 3

When exactly should you plan to play against them? That's quite a spread.

I have no idea, but I'm not privy to the other analysis that would take place and I think it would go beyond simply goals scored. It could also revolve around picking a certain player whose distance covered stats seem to drop after a certain point and then attacking him specifically at a certain period of the match. Or maybe concentration has typically dropped at a certain time. I have no idea of the specifics, but that type of planning definitely happens, and I'd really like an explanation from someone that disagrees as to why it is pointless, and why exactly AVB should be sacked right now if it is indeed his approach.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

If I was to plan exactly the best time to attack Swansea I would say 60th min and the last 10 mins. My problem with this is I dont think football can be played with machine or mathematical style, confidence plays a massive part in football I believe more than people realise.

If I use Hull as an example, Spurs play Hull at White Hart Lane, AVB has come up with a plan that attacking Hull in the 70th minute is best because this is when Hull have conceded most of their goals. Now if I was playing for Hull I would see the Spurs game and think christ today is going to be hard, this team have spent 100m plus in the summer and just missed out of champs league last season, we are going to have to work hard to get any sort of result from this game. So the game starts Hull manage to get to half time and its still 0-0. Spurs haven't really caused us many problems, infact we have caused them a few problems too. My confidence would be sky high I would be saying we can nick this today, as the 2nd half continues and it gets closer and closer to full time and its 0-0, the crowd now starts moaning because Spurs are struggling to break us down, again more confidence to me.

If football was played with robots I could fully agree with AVB's strategy sadly for him its not, maybe its because AVB never played football at the top level he doesnt understand the pressure of playing in front of crowds.

If you read the book you've ordered you'll see that AVB does often look at the psychological elements, motivation and the flow of a game etc. it has been over a year since I read it but I'm sure there was something in there about having multiple plans for a match too, basically accounting for if something goes tits up, can we still compete with the plan.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

I can see the sense in what BOL, GB and Scara are advocating, but I can't say I've seen much evidence of it in practice. If we were having periods where we completely outplay the opposition, where we obviously implement a pre-game plan to go up a gear or two I reckon I could accept it. I think conserving energy when you've got a game won is sensible, but we aren't getting games won, and we weren't last year either.

I'm not an AVB out guy at this point, but I'm not happy with the way we're playing either.

I think you do see a lot of it in practice. If you check that NWND thread, a lot of his criticisms were that we were poor in this or that game, except when we had that nice spell here or that lucky break there. Again, is it not surprising to people that we still tend to pick up points despite our players being so hamstring by their boffin coach? This is elite sport, the planning that goes into it is immense and we would not be getting anywhere if we were operating on such a disadvantage.

I remember in the Palace game a good spell, Swansea, Norwich, Cardiff, Villa, Saudi Sportswashing Machine...to be honest all games where we clearly and noticeably step up the pressure. Even Hull, I thought we would win it because I saw a change in the moments just before we go the penalty. We started turning it up a notch for sure.

 

[Kingdawson]

In previous seasons it could have been the case that they played for maximum intensity earlier in the seasons before dropping off, and recently have decided that it is most important to be strong towards the end when a lot of teams will be on their holidays mentally and easier to pick off. To be honest I don't really know what Arsenal do, but planning to peak at certain points certainly happens a clubs whether it's at the beginning or the end or the middle, and their experiences don't change that.

No, I am not suggesting we played within ourselves all season so that we could blitz Sunderland on the final day. I am using that game as an example of us deciding to attack from the first whistle, as it was the strategy to do so. Usually we don't do that, but due to controlling our exertions we are able to decide when to do it on our terms. To be honest that game, even though it took a Bale screamer, it was one of the few home performances where I don't feel it was undeserved. But it didn't surprise me we attacked from the first whistle because the plan was clearly to put pressure on Arsenal as AVB acknowledged after the game.

I honestly do prefer to see us play this way, and will continue to do so if we continue to achieve more points (once this transition has taken place with lots of new players). Watching us year apart teams in 11/12 was great fun, I felt on top of the world watching Spurs, but watching us blow the advantage we had was one of the most depressing experiences of my life as a fan, because there was so much potential there and if managed better it could have really been something. But we shot our load early on and while we can complain we were unlucky in lots of games in that season, I've come to realise that it's no coincidence that the fine margins went against us continually. Everything that could go wrong, did. It was not exciting in the least. It was not swashbuckling. And this is where stats and analysis comes in, because if we can actually affect when we are going to exert ourselves to get an edge, then we should do it. Why would you not?

11/12 was nothing to do with us 'blowing our load early' and everything to do with our ex manager deciding he didn't want the job anymore in January. We would have walked third if the England **** didn't come up so i don't really know why you're using this as an example tbh.

 

[Kingdawson]

and also i would like to know why we (the 5th best team in the league) would 'save ourselves' for 15 teams not as good as us, in order to reap the benefits against 4 teams? explain please how this makes sense?

 

[Kingdawson]

and also in the 09/10 season how exactly did we 'shoot our load early' and still end up having a strong end to the finish and finishing 4th?

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Getting back on topic, the original post from BOL and the post from Gutterboy do not tally.

BOL says we choose which point in games to go for the jugular, the rest of the time we are just tiring them out.
GB says once we are winning 2-0 we can take our foot off the gas.

BOL's idea makes sense in some ways i.e. tire the other team out, then go for it once cracks appear. I can agree with that. But that doesn't tally with other points he was making about choosing which entire games to go for it. I do understand the point that a team can't maintain peak performance for an entire season. Maybe his post was poorly worded in a couple of areas because in some ways it makes sense, but overall it doesn't quite stack up.

As others have implied, it is fine to rest in some periods of some games as a tactic either when we are winning or purely to wear them out for a bit, but then you must leave yourself enough time to score, which we don't. And I don't see us really upping the tempo very often. The best way to conserve energy is to play as a unit, harrass them, score and then relax.

In fact the best way to conserve energy is to rotate players, but AVB has played Dembele, Paulinho and Vertonghen until they are knackered already and it isn't even winter yet, when he had good (better) options on the bench or let go... strange way of going about things if you are a sports science freak. Plenty of signs these players are knackered and not performing, but still he wheels them out.

Honestly, we are saying the same thing, GB and I. Because in what I was saying, I too would expect us to rest with the ball once we've gotten a 2 goal lead, and I think if you ask GB he wouldn't be saying that he thinks our strategy is to blitz out of the blocks straight away before resting with the lead.

As I've said, I can see clear instances where we do up the tempo at given points. It's so very well to say we should only rest once ahead, and go full pelt until we are, but what about when they doesn't happen? And more to the point, why are we using our maximum intensity against an opposition that will have full concentration and full intensity themselves? Can anyone answer me why that, over a season, that is the smart play? I fully understand we may be able to do it early on in the season, and I'm sure I will get the response that once we've gotten the lead it forces the opposition out etc and it works for us, but over a season in terms of maximising our intensity when we need it, I don't think it is smart.

I think it makes much more sense to rest with the ball early on, or at the points where the opposition is strongest. Let's make them chase all game. Let's tire them out, and just when their concentration is waning or their energy levels are known for dipping, then we ramp it up. The advantage is not just within that game, but over the season, we decide when to do that on our terms, so it can be repeated again and again. If we try and blitz teams straight away we play into the oppositions hands, and soon we have nothing left to give.

As I've been discussing this over the last couple of days it's dawned on me why we look hard to watch at home a lot of the time. It's because neither ourselves not the opposition have a great desire to score at a lot of points in the game. But in our case it's not because we are defensive, because we are pressing high and keeping the ball, it's because we are waiting. Controlling. Away, or against bigger teams, we raise the intensity for longer periods and as such look like a better footballing team. Note, this is not me saying we try any less, because we are resting with the ball and that means the opposition won't have it, which means hopefully we pick up the goals and points on our terms.

And if we consider the merits of this strategy, in game and season long, then the best way to do it is the 'pig headed' (Martin Samuel really is an ignorant buffoon :ross: ) high line to retain possession quickly and limit the chasing we ultimately have to do. Yes this compresses the play, but when we decide to ramp up the pressure it is less of a big deal.

Can anyone really argue to me why this isn't clever, or worthwhile to be looking at? I mean, beyond 'we've lost some games this season so obviously it doesn't work' because clearly I'm not arguing that this strategy makes us indestructible. Merely that over a season, it represents our best chance of success. People are rubbishing the ideas and I don't really understand why. Stats are apparently useless, football is apparently a simple game. Tactically in essence it probably is. I mean, it takes only common sense to figure out that the best way to create a possession based strategy with resting with the ball is best with a high line and slow tempo.

But in terms of squad management over a season, when we are faced with the advantages that analysis brings us, and has a coach that embraces it, why on earth would we turn that away???

 

[BrainOfLevy]

and also i would like to know why we (the 5th best team in the league) would 'save ourselves' for 15 teams not as good as us, in order to reap the benefits against 4 teams? explain please how this makes sense?

You're getting it the wrong way round. We rest more in the 'easier games' and play with more intensity in the more difficult ones.

 

[Kingdawson]

You're getting it the wrong way round. We rest more in the 'easier games' and play with more intensity in the more difficult ones.

?

by saving ourselves i assumed that meant we conserve our energy in the lesser games in order to win the the big games?

 

[BrainOfLevy]

and also in the 09/10 season how exactly did we 'shoot our load early' and still end up having a strong end to the finish and finishing 4th?

I don't know - I'm saying using analysis to our advantage gives us the best possible chance, that's all.

It doesn't mean Harry wasn't successful in that season, we peaked at a good team. Maybe be design, maybe the fact that he brought new players into the team like Pav and he played a big part in the big games.

 

[Mumorn]

I personally thought we burnt out in 09/10.

Could just be me though.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

11/12 was nothing to do with us 'blowing our load early' and everything to do with our ex manager deciding he didn't want the job anymore in January. We would have walked third if the England **** didn't come up so i don't really know why you're using this as an example tbh.

Do you know that for sure though? Previously I was right there with you, but having read some of this stuff is made me think that if our intensity was managed a bit more in those early months we may have not had such a horrible February onwards.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

?

by saving ourselves i assumed that meant we conserve our energy in the lesser games in order to win the the big games?

Yes exactly.

But you said save ourselves 'for' the smaller games. May have been a typo.

 

[Kingdawson]

I personally thought we burnt out in 09/10.

Could just be me though.

beating Arsenal, chelski and City near the end? yes it's probably just you.

 

[Mumorn]

beating Arsenal, chelski and City near the end? yes it's probably just you.

Sorry, I meant 11/12.

 

[thfcsteff]

11/12 was nothing to do with us 'blowing our load early' and everything to do with our ex manager deciding he didn't want the job anymore in January. We would have walked third if the England **** didn't come up so i don't really know why you're using this as an example tbh.

Agreed.
It is why I was so utterly, utterly annoyed with him. He took his eye off the ball the previous season, and then 'that' happened. Again, truth be told, he broke my Spurs heart because I believed we were going to win the title, I genuinely did…

I still hope AVB gets the season so as we can really see what the deal is. But again, if the knives are out behind the scenes, it becomes a game far out of anyone's reach…

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Agreed.
It is why I was so utterly, utterly annoyed with him. He took his eye off the ball the previous season, and then 'that' happened. Again, truth be told, he broke my Spurs heart because I believed we were going to win the title, I genuinely did…

I still hope AVB gets the season so as we can really see what the deal is. But again, if the knives are out behind the scenes, it becomes a game far out of anyone's reach…

Are the knives really out or is it one idiot board member who gave the 'he's either a genius of fraud' speech when first hired?

Something for the actual AVB thread though, that question.

 

[thfcsteff]

beating Arsenal, chelski and City near the end? yes it's probably just you.

To be fair to Redknapp, he managed things superbly that season. He fully understood we were not good enough to compete on several fronts and saw the chance of taking 4th. Thus all efforts were focussed there, and getting Gudjohnsen on loan was a great move. What he did that second-half of that season was not unlike what Wenger did last season, tossed in the towel and went bang out for the top 4. I remember heading up to City convinced we would win, utterly convinced. He did a fine job marshaling the resources that season...