Performances over a season

[BrainOfLevy]

BoL, GB, Scara, Jord, ,Milo - i admire your positions.

BoL everything you've said is completely correct from a theoretical point of view and even from a practical perspective (from an individual perspective).

From a personal perspective i used to compete at a semi-elite level in athletics. For a long time i could never understand why people i was tonking early in the season were beating me during the major comps at the end despite me feeling good, strong and confident.

Football is different because it's a team sport an there is simply no way to manage the multitude of factors involved.

I'm with KD in that there is simply no way of commumicating that kind of strategy to a bunch of footballers. They will simply not get it. And even if they did get it from a theoretical PoV, the ebb and flow of an individual game will throw all that out of the window.

American sports science is WAY ahead of us. Baseball, Basketball and American Football adopt a level of sports science that is beyond our comprehension. Although the difference is that thier sports are usually based on 'plays' and are very much stop/start in nature.

I aslo agree with the OP in that terms of full season intensity. I have yet to see a team start strong and end strong and maintain that strength throughout the entire season.

I'm probably in the minority in that i actually enjoy our possession based approach. Ive been scarred by the 90's and early 2000's where we counldn't control a ball and couldn't string 2 passes togerther.

However in terms of the OP, i think you are correct and that is probably AVB's intention/goal. But unfortunately there is not a chance in hell that this will work with our current team. Firstly becaue we are not elite and secondly becasue the players will simply not 'get it'. From a team perspective there are simply way too many invariables to account for.

I think footballers do get it - we saw them carry it off last season and we see them trying to carry it off this year too but new players settling in to the league makes it a bit more difficult. We also saw his Porto side get it completely. We just don't look very pretty right now carrying it out but then again I don't think we were set up last year with our squad to look pretty - it was largely Harry's team minus Rafa and Modric and plus Dembele and Dempsey. So a lot of direct and physical players as opposed to subtle players.

This year we have more subtle players and I think we will carry it off and look nicer doing it, certainly from February onwards.

 

[Daisuk]

First of all, thank you for engaging with the ideas at least rather than dismissing them out of hand.

I would say the logic is, simply that it's better to attack teams on our terms, when we have identified that they are at their weakest during a match, rather than only trying to rest when 2 goals up and attack them all out from minute one until that happens. If we rest while the opposition are at their most strongest and able to concentrate to their maximum, but play the game on our terms so they are chasing, we tire them out in order to hit them when they are most vulnerable. That benefits us not only in that game, but in the long stretch of a season when we have spent the majority of the time making other teams chase while conserving our own energies.

And since it is the plan, the squad knows this and won't get frustrated. The fans will do, and part of me thinks AVB should come out and explain his thinking just once, so that everyone is in on the plan. But then of course you have the risk of basically opening our preparation up to all opposition as well as the fact that some fans will still not see the logic behind it and still criticise it - so he can't really win even if he does. But the whole point of everything - the high line, the pressing, the slow tempo at many points in the game - is all so we can play the match and the season on our terms.

The fact that we might not get a goal is equally important in a strategy that requires all out intensity from the first whistle as well as one that waits for the moment to strike. Only in the former, if you don't get a goal you are much more susceptible to attacks because you've expanded a lot of intensity against an opposition that is still in their peak state for the game. Of course we may not get a goal with our strategy - West Ham showed that and everything can go wrong - but over a long season I think there is more benefit to playing matches on our terms than there is simply 'going for it' every time and not managing our condition. We do rotate heavily for the Europa League and also lower our intensity - we definitely don't go all guns blazing. Same for the Carling Cup. I can see why people think playing some first teamers in the Europa is not managing their condition but I think there is a difference between the recovery period between Thursday and Sunday - and AVB always says he gives players plenty of rest for recovery - and long term wear and tear and effect on our intensity over a season. The fact that we've played such a slow tempo and 'laboured' to these wins in Europe in the group stages I would say is completely by design. We are making them not much more than a training exercise so that when we do have to increase the intensity for tougher opponents, we have enough left in the tank to do so.

It's also worth noting that each member of the squad's condition will be meticulously managed. For example Sandro knows he's on about 90% of his ideal condition right now, and so rotation and games the players are given is all tied in to benefit us here, and strike the balance between improving condition by keeping things ticking over and not doing too much.

Ok, attacking an opposing team when it is weak makes sense, obviously, but it does require that the opposing team indeed does get weak (and weak enough for us to benefit from it) during the course of a game, and it requires us maximizing our efforts and opportunities from that moment, which I guess it is, you will say, we are really practicing now.

Sure, I think I get it, at least the idea behind it. But I still think it's a risky strategy that relies too much on forces out of our control (one being that it assumes that the opposition team will have a performance dip during the game and that we will be able to capitalize from it).

What happens to the strategy when we concede the first goal? Do we still play our resting football until the opponent gets tired and only then try to probe a goal?

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Ok, attacking an opposing team when it is weak makes sense, obviously, but it does require that the opposing team indeed does get weak (and weak enough for us to benefit from it) during the course of a game, and it requires us maximizing our efforts and opportunities from that moment, which I guess it is, you will say, we are really practicing now.

Sure, I think I get it, at least the idea behind it. But I still think it's a risky strategy that relies too much on forces out of our control (one being that it assumes that the opposition team will have a performance dip during the game and that we will be able to capitalize from it).

What happens to the strategy when we concede the first goal? Do we still play our resting football until the opponent gets tired and only then try to probe a goal?

Fair enough, I just think rather than leaving things out of our control, it's actually about leaving us as much in control as possible. The possession is intended to tire the opposition out, weaken their concentration and lead to mistakes that we can exploit. It's at this point, when their intensity will be at its weakest, that we ramp it up to our strongest, that we will increase our chances of scoring. We still might not, as Saudi Sportswashing Machine proved, but I think it gives us the best possible chance over a season of being in control of our squad.

If we concede the first goal, I'd say the strategy does change. But according to people with knowledge of AVB's methods, this is planned for. What happens when things don't go to plan etc. I think against Saudi Sportswashing Machine for example we didn't really increase the intensity for the rest of the first half but tried to keep it up for most of the second. Against Emirates Marketing Project, we tried to come back into it straight away.

 

[Daisuk]

Fair enough, I just think rather than leaving things out of our control, it's actually about leaving us as much in control as possible. The possession is intended to tire the opposition out, weaken their concentration and lead to mistakes that we can exploit. It's at this point, when their intensity will be at its weakest, that we ramp it up to our strongest, that we will increase our chances of scoring. We still might not, as Saudi Sportswashing Machine proved, but I think it gives us the best possible chance over a season of being in control of our squad.

If we concede the first goal, I'd say the strategy does change. But according to people with knowledge of AVB's methods, this is planned for. What happens when things don't go to plan etc. I think against Saudi Sportswashing Machine for example we didn't really increase the intensity for the rest of the first half but tried to keep it up for most of the second. Against Emirates Marketing Project, we tried to come back into it straight away.

Yeah, I think I understand it better now. Definitely getting the book to hopefully get some more of the details. I have to say I'm very skeptical though, although I'm all for a squad that can handle the entirety of the season, it sure as hell doesn't play the most entertaining football, and so far it doesn't seem to very efficient either. But we'll see. I'll keep a lookout for it tomorrow for sure.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Yeah, I think I understand it better now. Definitely getting the book to hopefully get some more of the details. I have to say I'm very skeptical though, although I'm all for a squad that can handle the entirety of the season, it sure as hell doesn't play the most entertaining football, and so far it doesn't seem to very efficient either. But we'll see. I'll keep a lookout for it tomorrow for sure.

I can't deny that it's not entertaining - certainly it bamboozled me last year why we looked so bad at home against weaker teams from a stylistic point of view, but looked better against better teams or away from home. I put it down to us having players suited to playing on the break, but in plenty of away games we still didn't play on the break, we just went forward in more regular waves.

After thinking about it, relative to our squad in our league, the methods are used to ensure we can compete as regularly as possible in the away games and the big games, and so we can conserve our energy in the lesser games to allow to do that, but still pick up the points in shorter bursts, not over a game. It was just really bad looking last year, especially because the likes of Dempsey and Defoe upfront did not lend itself well to nice looking football. They can play simple short passes to feet easily enough but their style isn't really to look especially good doing it.

This year on the other hand I think once the squad settles, guys like Chadli, Lamela, Eriksen and even Soldado will compliment Townsend, Sigurdsson and Holtby nicely and we will look a little prettier when resting with the ball. Even then though it won't be the most entertaining, but then it's hopefully balanced our with consistency a few months down the line.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

It's hard to argue with your logic because you're dismissing every run of form as something that's planned yet runs of form have existed as long as football.

What injuries did wigan have that caused them a disastrous run of form when you think they were primed to perform?

Who of our rivals (Arsenal, City, United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton) are pursuing the same strategy as us and where this season have they been as sterile as us?

Just wanted to come back on this - I agree runs of form have always existed but I think what we are seeing now is an attempt to manage runs of form so we are strongest when we want to be, as opposed to rising to a peak, inevitable falls and then recovery/burn out without any rhyme to it.

 

[DeanoAustin]

Just wanted to come back on this - I agree runs of form have always existed but I think what we are seeing now is an attempt to manage runs of form so we are strongest when we want to be, as opposed to rising to a peak, inevitable falls and then recovery/burn out without any rhyme to it.

We will have to agree to disagree mate. Just dont see the sense in this approach in a game like football.

There are too many variables. Like I've shown already with Swansea, there is no real pattern to when they concede so there is no great time to attack them. You say it's not necessarily about when teams concede goals that drives this type of strategy but goals are what wins games.

If you go to the opposition's individual stats as a driver of your philosophy instead, that's also flawed. For example AVB sees that Rio tires after 60 minutes and decides that's when Soldado should come alive (which I think is what you've suggested).

Who will be centre back for United tomorrow? Two from Rio, Vidic, Evans, Smalling and Jones. It would be risky to bank on any of them playing and basing part of your overall strategy on that. Even if Rio plays, you then need to factor in who partners him. For example, if Evans plays, Evans gets stronger in the last half hour whereas Smalling doesn't (for example) while Jones, if in midfield, provides good cover in the second half where as Anderson doesn't (all hypothetical examples to show how many variables are in this equation).

Then you have to consider does Rio tire when playing against teams playing at a high intensity from the off versus teams who hold possession but play primarily in front of Uniteds midfield.

At this stage you have dozens of permutations, most of which are beyond your control, for one small area of your game plan. Now you also have the difficulty in communicating it to your centre forward and attacking players.

If this is AVB's strategy then I'd rather go back to Harry. He may have been charactetised as someone who told us to "run around a bit" but he played far better football and we finished 4th, 5th and 4th under him. I'd bet the mortgage that AVB won't better that and when you boil it all down, his job is to have us finish as high as possible.

 

[indianspur]

Read AVB's book. It's all set out in there and that was written 3 years ago.

no thanks. The book will probably send me to sleep just like the way his teams play

 

[indianspur]

Specifically relating to AVB, in his book there's an awful lot about how he manages a squad with the season in mind.

It's why he believes in 'resting in possession' and then picking off teams in short bursts, subbing wingers for CMs for the last ¼ of matches to completely control possession, and that 2-0 is the perfect result and anything else is expending too much energy. At Porto he was often praised/criticised for starting to prepare for the next match after 60 mins, rather than going on to hammer teams. But then his approach meant they lost once all season across 4 competitions.

i dont see other top managers adopting this approach

just too much thinking, there is no need. Its football ffs, not rocket science.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

i dont see other top managers adopting this approach

just too much thinking, there is no need. Its football ffs, not rocket science.

I don't see many others adopting Wenger's...must be rubbish?

Seriously though, I don't know how you can arrive at the idea football is simple, no need to over complicate it etc. What do you suggest we do when we try keeping it simple as it only takes us so far? How are we supposed to improve, or punch above our weight? These ideas aren't even that complicated, they are very easy to understand and the logic is sound.

Also - how do you think AVB - or any manager - arrives at the idea that his methods and his convictions are the way to go? Did he wake up one day and decide it was going to work? Did he fluke the Europa League, huge points total and undefeated season with Porto or did he achieve because of those methods. And what about those methods, logically speaking, suggests they can't work in our league? (I am anticipating a 'they only work in poor leagues' response)

 

[BrainOfLevy]

We will have to agree to disagree mate. Just dont see the sense in this approach in a game like football.

There are too many variables. Like I've shown already with Swansea, there is no real pattern to when they concede so there is no great time to attack them. You say it's not necessarily about when teams concede goals that drives this type of strategy but goals are what wins games.

If you go to the opposition's individual stats as a driver of your philosophy instead, that's also flawed. For example AVB sees that Rio tires after 60 minutes and decides that's when Soldado should come alive (which I think is what you've suggested).

Who will be centre back for United tomorrow? Two from Rio, Vidic, Evans, Smalling and Jones. It would be risky to bank on any of them playing and basing part of your overall strategy on that. Even if Rio plays, you then need to factor in who partners him. For example, if Evans plays, Evans gets stronger in the last half hour whereas Smalling doesn't (for example) while Jones, if in midfield, provides good cover in the second half where as Anderson doesn't (all hypothetical examples to show how many variables are in this equation).

Then you have to consider does Rio tire when playing against teams playing at a high intensity from the off versus teams who hold possession but play primarily in front of Uniteds midfield.

At this stage you have dozens of permutations, most of which are beyond your control, for one small area of your game plan. Now you also have the difficulty in communicating it to your centre forward and attacking players.

If this is AVB's strategy then I'd rather go back to Harry. He may have been charactetised as someone who told us to "run around a bit" but he played far better football and we finished 4th, 5th and 4th under him. I'd bet the mortgage that AVB won't better that and when you boil it all down, his job is to have us finish as high as possible.

Fair enough mate, I enjoy your responses though.

It may not be as in depth as is being made out - after all AVB was quoted last year saying he doesn't have a great amount of time for prozone stats for example. But if we take say, the Reading away game last year for example, we may have decided as a team, for whatever reason (be it goals conceded, a drop in distance covered, or something I'm not privy to) that we attack them with increased intensity from minutes 35-45 and 65-75. We may then say, during these periods, we overwhelm Ian Harte in particular because Aaron Lennon will do him for pace every time. That may be the plan - it could change if Harte doesn't play but it's easy enough to then say we focus our attacks somewhere else if he doesn't play.

I use that game as an example as Bale didn't really touch it all that much playing on the left while we tried to feed Lennon often. What I've said there is relatively simply and targeting specific players is nothing new. But targeting specific periods in games to overwhelm specific opposition players as a team, would probably increase our chances of success.

I think AVB can do better than AVB and ultimately have us competing for the title. That's just my opinion though, I think Harry was great for a time and he is tactically sound, I just think with his methods the only way he'd have us competing for the title is if he got a Emirates Marketing Project / Chelsea style net spend. I don't think his approach was cute enough to have us punch above our weight consistently.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Kind of as I thought it would be today, aesthetically 'better' football, greater intensity, taking the game to the opposition with quicker passing and counter attacking more often.

I think maybe what the problem has been so far - and what our squad didn't really get at the beginning of last season too - was that during the 'rest' periods, you still have to be alert and it doesn't mean dropping down your concentration, it just means chasing less. But last year in the West Brom, Norwich and Wigan games for example I don't think the players were getting it - after the Wigan game Brad said the players needed to take a long look at themselves and this could be what he meant.

So this year, the West Ham and Saudi Sportswashing Machine games in particular - Paulinho being particularly too relaxed - has meant we've dropped a few points. But it's a settling in period. Players are getting used to the methods and getting used to the league. But we will always compete in these bigger games IMO - unless we give them a goal headstart in 14 seconds.