I wanted to write this as following tonight, you can tell a lot of people are underwhelmed by the performance. It's not about AVB specifically, but is about what I believe he is trying to do, but also what other managers are trying to do. Basically I believe that clubs decide certain points in a season where they expect good form, or prepare the team for good form, and certain points where they reduce their expectations in the hope of eeking out the extra few % when they want it to matter.
It's a concept we've heard about fairly often. Last year it was reported quite widely that Barca tailor their preparations so they come down a slight level in terms of fitness just before the business end of the season really kicks in, and then they amp it up again from there. Obviously Man United are known for being the kings of the run-in, and I don't think it's all because of the mental aspect that they thought they could do it, and more about the fact they were prepared in a way to help them achieve it. Margins are fine and if clubs can manage it so they can have an advantage over other teams at certain points in the season they will do so. Wigan are also notorious for performing late in the year under Martinez, and people put it down to some whimsical element, but really they were prepared to do it that way.
The crux of my point is this: AVB takes these ideas and inputs them into strategies not just to plan over a season, and also in game. So, over a season there are games where our 'effort' or rather our over extension of effort is reduced. This is because we feel we can get the result without going full pelt, so that we are better able to compete in the bigger/tougher games when we need to. A lot of people (myself included) thought that our squad was simply more suited to away games, but this season I don't think it necessarily is, I think we are just prepared to go full pelt for longer periods when away in order to maximise our chances. So, home games against lesser teams, and Carling Cup games last season for example, we don't extend ourselves as much as we possibly could. It doesn't mean we can't perform well in games that mean less, just that in terms of finding the margins where we can, the process is managed so we can get them where they matter.
With relevance to tonight - lesser games in the Europa League - I absolutely expected the type of performance we got. And it gives me confidence that we are being prepared as a top side would be, ready to face a big game on Sunday. We didn't extend ourselves more than needed to and we got the job done. That's what a professional club does. That's what any top side does. However a top side might lose a game like this too - for example Chelsea losing to Basel is likely to be as much about the fact that over extended against West Ham and I don't think it comes as a great surprise to Mourinho that they didn't beat Basel. Tonight for us, I don't think the players were particularly nervous, I think they were simply doing what was asked of them.
So within games, the same thinking applies, and with reference to AVB, his whole system is designed to give us the control so we can play a match, and a season, on our terms. We didn't need to over extend ourselves tonight. People have commented that 'we managed to come alive for a 20 minute spell' for example but I don't think that is coincidence, I think it is completely by design. We don't need to over do it in a game like this but just to finish off the job, we will increase the pressure when we decide, because we have conserved the energy, and over run them at a point in the game of our choosing.
We are able to do this because of our control of the ball. People may say it's meaningless possession if we aren't creating chances but I'd argue for the purposes of this thread, it's not meaningless if we are conserving energy and waiting for moments in the game to ramp up the pressure. The high line allows us to win the ball back quickly and the short passing at a slow tempo means we can rest with the ball. I may have been wrong in thinking that the t**gid football was a stage to get us somewhere else. I'm now thinking that while we do need to get slightly better at it, if we were to be playing a different system that required more risk taking we would be doing it by now, AVB has certainly had enough time. But we do it the way we do to exert maximum control. We play nice football when we need to - the second goal tonight is proof. We always have spells in a game where suddenly we come alive, and I don't think it is by accident. It's by design.
I don't think AVB is the only manager thinking this way, but he's probably the only manager doing it the exact way that he is trying to do it. I think Martinez for example is an advocate of the approach - always appearing to get better performances against big teams but sometimes looking like having sterile possession against smaller ones. I also think most clubs plan their points over a season, and also base it on where they expect other clubs to have their strong periods. So I think Liverpool and Arsenal planned to have strong starts given that they had the most settled squads and therefore an easier task of making sure they got the results they planned for. Southampton probably the same. I would not be surprised if ourselves however planned for a dip early on where we were letting players acclimatise, but that our level will increase in the coming months. It will also not surprise me in the slightest when Arsenal and Liverpool have their dips in the coming months too. I think it will happen, because no club can expect their players to go at the maximum for the entire season. The smart move is to control when you want to be at the maximum.
So I think this is why AVB is rated. He has the backing of people within football because this approach makes sense. It may not always be pretty, certainly against teams lesser than ourselves, but it's the smart play if it means we can get better performances in the games that matter, and in the business end of the season. We didn't get a result against Arsenal earlier on, but this can likely be because they have planned for a strong start, and their players were more settled and so were able to carry it off better than ours. City was a calamity of errors that meant we couldn't play the game anywhere near our terms.
People may say 'sod all this, I just want to be entertained, why can't we play at the maximum every game?' and to them I would say it's a fair enough request, but I think what seperates the highly regarded modern manager from the old school (even recent old school) is this difference. It's preparing the squad intelligently in terms of fitness and intensity so they increase the chances of getting performances when they need them. Our 11/12 season is a prime example. We were awesome for the first few months but couldn't perform when it mattered. I don't think Harry 'knows' any less about tactics, but I think this is probably a consideration that perhaps he didn't pay too much mind in that season.
Anyway - sorry for the length, I just wanted to try to articulate what I think AVB's approach is, and why we may be seeing lackluster performances against smaller teams (broadly speaking). And why I believe it is a smart play and the mark of a club that will compete. I fully expect us to perform well against Man United on Sunday. Whether we win is another matter, but I back us to perform and look good doing it.
