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*** Official Betting Thread ***

Anyone heard of trevor lightfoot? he's on twitter some sort of master tipster! Seems to get alot correct. £15 to get a months tips. Thinking about signing up
 
Just had a look and in Everton's last 13 games they have have scored and conceded in every one of them.
 
The Arsenal game this early afternoon is a complete pain in the ass to look at with regards to form.

Arsenal seem to struggle away from home, and barring the Reading encounter, have failed to score more than once in their last 5 away games and have collected only 5 points from a possible 15! Admittedly though those away games came against opponents who tend to be stronger at home; Manchester United, Norwich (who have won their last 5 home Premiership games), Everton (who are unbeaten for some time at home) and Villa who appear to be having a resurgence so perhaps Arsenal merely played them at the wrong time (or for us the right time :))

Wigan conversely have only picked up 7 points out of 15 in their last 5 Premiership home games. Perhaps that's less suprising given that they are not a team considered to have the chance to finish inside the top 6 this season. Wigan have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 4 Premiership games, to me if they concede 2 at home against the likes of QPR, Reading and WBA then perhaps we can see that Arsenal will continue on the goals trail from their encounter against Reading. The other team Wigan conceded 2 against was Emirates Marketing Project but, of course, that's less of a shock. The one thing that the Emirates Marketing Project defeat shows is that they can match a top side for a good spell in the game. Wigan and Emirates Marketing Project each had 6 corners, Wigan had 4 shots on target to the 6 that Emirates Marketing Project had. Emirates Marketing Project also scored their 2 goals within 3 minutes so would indicate that perhaps the first Emirates Marketing Project goal went in, Wigan player's heads went down and converesely though of Emirates Marketing Project were raised and this led to an immediate second. So perhaps Wigan find it difficult to reestablish levels of confidence once the opposition scores?

Arsenal have a record of P7 W4 D2 L1 in their last seven visits to Wigan.

So, what does that tell us about the Arsenal game today? Hmm, without further analysis, which I would often produce but stuck cooking Stollen today, I think there is a good chance of Draw/Arsenal as a Half Time/Full Time. The reason for this is that Wigan will keep their heads up for the first half and push Arsenal but that Arsenal are likely to win over the 90 minutes. Arsenal have struggled away against sides who have been defensively resolute which Wigan cannot claim to be. But it's with lower confidence that I pick this market and I might repeat this as a £5 bet with some of the profits that I made yesterday, the odds of this at Betfair are 5.7
 
To win
Ipswich
Leicester
Millwall
Crystal Palace
£10 pays £96.76

Over 2.5
West Ham
Millwall
Crystal Palace
£15 pays £90.68

Team Goals
Wigan 2 or more
Spurs 2 or more
Liverpool 3 or more
£15 pays £203.77

BTTS
Wigan v Arsenal
Saudi Sportswashing Machine v QPR
Southampton v Sunderland
Spurs v Stoke
Liverpool v Fulham
£12 pays £174.60
 
For a score, I would guess at Arsenal winning 3-1 as, like Dayo, I think it's likely that Wigan will score as Arsenal do appear to have defensive frailties.
 
I have two scores in my head. 2-2 or 3-2 to Arsenal. I think it will be one of those ding dong matches where all the goals come from counter counter attacks and a late one from a corner for Wigan. Get your money on 0-0.
 
Wigan v Arsenal

Over 3.5
£25 @ 2.6

Di Santo anytime
£10 @ 4.92

Beausejour anytime
£5 @ 16/1

Walcott anytime
£15 @ 2.7

Walcott 2 or more
£5 @ 9.8
 
I think Walcott will score too, so you could be on for a good thing there! Walcott playing striker again too and against James McCarthy, I think, who is playing out of position.
 
So at half time, the score is a draw at 0-0. My main bet is still on, looking promising and at the moment I'm not 100% fussed whether Arsenal win or not. If Arsenal win then I profit, if Arsenal don't win then Spurs have an opportunity to profit.
 
Cashed out to a profit of £20. I could walk away with £20 definite profit or bide the last few minutes for an extra £3, for me that saves me getting burned should Wigan suddenly snatch an equaliser at the death and I'm happy to pay £3 of the potential profit to lock in an actual profit. :)
 
I have staked £5 on a treble this afternoon:

Sunderland to beat Southampton, WBA to beat Norwich and West Ham to beat Everton.
 
Just stuck £5 on Vertonghen scoring the first goal against Stoke. @ 22

Even if neither of these come off, I will still be £34 up over the last couple of days and I feel confident about picking more successful bets over the next week with that profit.

I chose 2 longer bets, simply because I feel they are plausible and the high return rate that they each offer.

Vertonghen scored last week v Swansea and scored a lot of goals last season and so as players often have a habit of scoring a few within a couple of games then he is worth the bet I feel.


As for the treble: Everton without Fellaini travelling to play a West Ham team who are more physical than most and who will likely prove tough to beat at home.
Sunderland who are longer priced than I feel they ought to be. I think they have a good chance of a result at St Marys and so worthy of inclusion at odds of about 3/1
and WBA who have been out of form but who, at home against a Norwich side who thrive at their own home, will be looking to get back to winning ways.

Heck, I don't know why I need to explain my choice of bets, seems like a lot of the time we pick things randomly in here but I want to give justification and explanation.
 
West Ham let me down today, so now hating them as much as they seem to hate us the rest of the year!

Backed Kimberley/Louis 1-2 in Strictly Final, I wouldn't usually back this but she has been the only reason this year's show has been worth watching.
 
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