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Coronavirus

Are we soon gonna see a flippening where we are doing 300-400k 2nd doses and only 50k odd new first doses? Or have they said supply can keep up with this rate and we can manage both?
 
The NHS has warned of a "significant reduction in the weekly supply" of coronavirus vaccines next month in a letter to local health organisations.

The letter says there has been a "reduction in national inbound vaccines supply" and asks organisations to "ensure no further appointments are uploaded" to booking systems in April.

The health secretary said the letter, seen by the BBC, was "standard".

The BBC understands no-one who has booked a vaccine should lose a slot.

Asked about it during a Downing Street coronavirus briefing, Matt Hanrooster said the NHS regularly sent out "technical letters" that explained the "ups and downs" of supply.

BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg has been told that fewer AstraZeneca vaccines are available than expected.


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The letter says that "over this next period it is vital" that health organisations focus on vaccinating those in the priority groups one to nine, who are most vulnerable to coronavirus.

It advises vaccination services to work with local authorities, voluntary community and faith organisations "to put in place reserve lists" of people eligible for the vaccine - as well as targeting areas of lower uptake.

The NHS says vaccination centres and community pharmacy-led services should close unfilled bookings from the week commencing 29 March.

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It is unclear what has caused this drop in supply. Government sources are suggesting the amount produced by manufacturers is below the expected yields. But this has been denied by those firms.

Given that we do rely on supply from Europe for some of our vaccine, the fact it comes on the day the EU warned it may restrict exports has raised questions whether this might be part of the cause.

The number of doses available may drop to under two million a week in April. That is a little below what has been available in the past couple of weeks and will be half the level the NHS has been told it will have for the next two "bumper" weeks.

With significant numbers of second doses due from the start of next month, it looks like there will be no quick rollout to younger age groups - although the government says the target of offering all adults a vaccine by the end of July will still be met.

We have always been warned the supply chain is precarious. This is a reminder of just how true that is.

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Earlier, it was announced that almost half of British adults have received their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine - more than 25 million people.

Around 1.7 million people have also had a second dose.

During Wednesday's briefing, Mr Hanrooster said the UK was "ahead of schedule" to offer a first dose to all over-50s by 15 April.

He also reiterated a commitment to ensuring that all adults in the UK are offered their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine by the end of July.

Speaking alongside the health secretary, Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at Public Health England, said "every day we vaccinate more people we are preventing more deaths".

BBC politics correspondent Jonathan Blake said the hold-up would have an impact on the momentum of the vaccine rollout and possibly the government's targets.

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Labour shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth tweeted that people "across the country" would be "anxious and worried" about the news of delays.

"Matt Hanrooster must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them," he added.

On Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that if Covid vaccine supplies in Europe do not improve, the EU "will reflect whether exports to countries who have higher vaccination rates than us are still proportionate".

The EU and the UK have been engaged in a diplomatic row over the export of the vaccines, exacerbated by post-Brexit disagreements.
 
If they can get everyone over 50 and those with underlying conditions then that should cover 99% of deaths - hopefully they can use the downtime to get into the communities and care homes who are resisting taking it.
 
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ety-experts-put-brakes-astrazeneca-s-covid-19

Interesting explanation of Germany et al 's position on the Astra Zeneca vaccine. Conclusion is the risk is low compared to the risk from covid so vaccination should continue. But if it is a pattern then it is important to recognise the syndrome and put in place a treatment protocol. Seems a reasonable position to me.
By the time any serious research has been done, everyone will be vaccinated.

You are (assuming you're male) far more likely to die from breast cancer.
 
Quite surprising as Spain has stopped AZ and is still administering the over 80s as i read last week. don't expect that decrease to last long given the waves elsewhere unless they're stringently locked down?

Was looking at holidays for June, was considering Spain but given the slow vaccine rollout, am thinking may have to be Dubai.
Looks you’re prediction was spot on, as cases now increasing again in Spain.

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You are (assuming you're male) far more likely to die from breast cancer.

Not much of a consolation if you die of multiple blood clots though. Plus the group who are most at risk are not the ones who have received the vaccines in great numbers.
 
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Yes, we are getting to the point where the second jabs need to be done and we could do with another manufacturer coming on stream.
Judging by AstraZeneca’s February trial data, it doesn’t look like an extra month between doses should make much difference at least. Hopefully they’ve been accumulating plenty more longer term dosing data in the weeks since.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html

Results demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 76% (CI: 59% to 86%) after a first dose, with protection maintained to the second dose. With an inter-dose interval of 12 weeks or more, vaccine efficacy increased to 82% (CI: 63%, 92%).

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Reading this morning, we produce around 2m AZ shots a week in the UK. However, was expecting a shipment of 5m AZ shots from India (i.e. 2.5 weeks worth) so that delay will have an impact on first dosage innoculation of population (as we need to ensure second doses get priority).

Moderna, imagine we will not start using at the earliest until May by the time it arrives and goes through checks, controls and gets passed around nationally.

Pfizer we get from Belgium but obviously the EU threatening to block those shipments, would very much doubt they'll go through with that.

J&J - still awaiting approval i believe.
 
Reading this morning, we produce around 2m AZ shots a week in the UK. However, was expecting a shipment of 5m AZ shots from India (i.e. 2.5 weeks worth) so that delay will have an impact on first dosage innoculation of population (as we need to ensure second doses get priority).

Moderna, imagine we will not start using at the earliest until May by the time it arrives and goes through checks, controls and gets passed around nationally.

Pfizer we get from Belgium but obviously the EU threatening to block those shipments, would very much doubt they'll go through with that.

J&J - still awaiting approval i believe.
It makes sense that we prioritise the second shots.

The risk to under 50s is a rounding error from zero. Far better to sort out those at risk - the rest of us can continue risk free.
 
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vaccination rates and second doses are all less of an issue than the data around hospitalisations. We needn't be worried about infections if hospitalisation numbers are crashing, and they are. We are in a very good position. Also the clotting thing - when they say risk, they cannot deny there is a risk and as there is nothing to say it does or doesnt cause them. We do know there isn't more clotting issues in the UK from the little data we have. Proof enough for me.
 
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