Welcome Ange: To Dare is to Didgeridoo

[SkipRat]

More likely a small sample size coincidence.

It's a shyte attitude.

Just like school kids before a half term or holiday. Just switch off and put in half the effort.

It's an appaling attitude to have

 

[Bedfordspurs]

The frustrating thing is we are so close. Between starters and prospects, we are literally a couple of key ingredients away.

And that’s were time for squad building and youth development need to align
Arsenal have brought in Nwaneri to replace the guy they sold to Fulham
That’s smart

 

[Bullet]

Yep with the same chances
a 0.1 chance means 1 out of every 10 times that shot goes in, right?
So you need to amen the exact same shot 10 times to score 1
That’s how I learned stats when I did it at uni. The conditions have to be same for the chance to be the same
Change the condition e.g a different shot and the chance changes
Hence why accumulating them doesn’t work

You're approaching it backwards
If 1000 shots are taken from that spot, in that situation, about 10 goals would go in. So we work down from there and say 1 goal from 100 shots or roughly 0.1 goals per shot from that spot, in that situation.

If Son took 1000 shots from that spot, in that situation, he might score 25.
If Skipp took 1000 shots from that spot, in that situation, he might score 5.

Accumulating them does work, but the big variable is which player is taking those chances.
Haaland presumably outperforms XG, so he might score 25 whereas Foden in his current funk might score 5.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

You're approaching it backwards
If 1000 shots are taken from that spot, in that situation, about 10 goals would go in. So we work down from there and say 1 goal from 100 shots or roughly 0.1 goals per shot from that spot, in that situation.

If Son took 1000 shots from that spot, in that situation, he might score 25.
If Skipp took 1000 shots from that spot, in that situation, he might score 5.

Accumulating them does work, but the big variable is which player is taking those chances.
Haaland presumably outperforms XG, so he might score 25 whereas Foden in his current funk might score 5.

You mean the same shot though every time ?
And players out according Xg changes the Xg next time don’t forget (depending on the Xg model)
I fully agree a better finisher will score higher than the Xg than a lesser one
But cumulatively adding up different types of shots with different XGA doesn’t increase the chance one them goes in. If for example a 0.1 Xg is scored that means the next 9 of the same shot wouldn’t be scored for that to be valid as a %
And I agree the variable is the player (and many other things such as timing of the game, weather, opposition keeper) but that is specific to that one shot at that time

 

[Bullet]

You're approaching it backwards. A shot doesn't make the next one more or less likely, but that doesn't mean what you think it means.

 

[Gazza]

I think we are 2 to 3 windows away from that. Until then I think we’ll probably sign 1 ready made, proven player and a few VERY promising young players in the summer and 1 player somewhere between those two categories in the January window. If we continue as we are now then I think summer 2026 is the one when we’ll sign a couple of ready made, in their prime players who cost almost all of the budget.

By that time postecoglu will be sacked and we will have a rebuild and sell off any player that has done anything of promise on the pitch