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Victimpool FC - Klopp leaving, grown men crying

braineclipse said:
This probably sounds overly optimistic, but for me one of the best application I know of of Moneyball in football has been implemented by Daniel Levy.

The entire concept was to get value for money, sell players that were overrated and ineffective, bring in cheaper players that are underrated, but effective.
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I wonder if this was the gospel that Comolli preached to FSG when he convinced them to give him a job?
 
inkpenspur said:
I wonder if this was the gospel that Comolli preached to FSG when he convinced them to give him a job?
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I doubt it based on the purchases they made while he was there. Nothing that seems like they were going for underrated players, in some ways quite the opposite. They seemed to be looking for a shortcut into CL money by buying established (although young) players that already knew the league for the expected inflated prices such players carry. Only player that was really a "moneyball player" was Jose Enrique where a great value for money deal could be made because of the contract situation and his wish to move to a bigger club and arguably Coates although for his reported talent his transfer fee was quite high.
 
braineclipse said:
I doubt it based on the purchases they made while he was there. Nothing that seems like they were going for underrated players, in some ways quite the opposite. They seemed to be looking for a shortcut into CL money by buying established (although young) players that already knew the league for the expected inflated prices such players carry. Only player that was really a "moneyball player" was Jose Enrique where a great value for money deal could be made because of the contract situation and his wish to move to a bigger club and arguably Coates although for his reported talent his transfer fee was quite high.
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Wrong thread really, but who do you see as Levy's Moneyball purchases then? As far back as Berbatov?
 
braineclipse said:
This probably sounds overly optimistic, but for me one of the best application I know of of Moneyball in football has been implemented by Daniel Levy.

The entire concept was to get value for money, sell players that were overrated and ineffective, bring in cheaper players that are underrated, but effective. Buy cheaply when possibly, sell expensively when possible. Exploit that others are making mistakes in the transfer market. For baseball it was and is reasonably possible to make those ratings fairly well based on stats, football is a different game and although some stats certainly help there needs to be some real scouting and planning, taking your game plan and system of play into account with the manager of course.

Although we haven't always succeeded in the scouting area, nor in the game plan area because some of our football men haven't delivered, the overall plan has worked very well for us.
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my main basis i guess is that at Liverpool you have owners from the US who have little real knowledge/experience of the game in England/Europe at the moment and are trying to copy a template for success from an unrelated sport from a different country - it could work out well but there's more chance imo that they are trying this too soon, which will end in failure (not that the sytem itself is bad, btw)

it'll be interesting to see how it all pans out, im a fan of DoF system as it is on the continent and would be happy for us to have another go at it - assuming we tweak it a little here and there, learning from where we went wrong in the past
 
billyiddo said:
my main basis i guess is that at Liverpool you have owners from the US who have little real knowledge/experience of the game in England/Europe at the moment and are trying to copy a template for success from an unrelated sport from a different country - it could work out well but there's more chance imo that they are trying this too soon, which will end in failure (not that the sytem itself is bad, btw)

it'll be interesting to see how it all pans out, im a fan of DoF system as it is on the continent and would be happy for us to have another go at it - assuming we tweak it a little here and there, learning from where we went wrong in the past
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Anyone spending 20m on henderson is not doing moneyball because they would need to sell him for 30m for it to work and if he is ever worth 30m i will give every man on this website a blow job.
 
inkpenspur said:
Wrong thread really, but who do you see as Levy's Moneyball purchases then? As far back as Berbatov?
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Levy has always been described as a "shrewd businessman", by some seemingly not particularly positively so. That to me is the essence of moneyball and his transfer strategy after the initial "5 year plan" failure under Hoddle has generally been one of shrewd business. I think Arnesen had a good influence on him, from what I remember reading at the time Arnesen really convinced Levy on how squad building should be done.

Berbatov is one for sure, I would also include Modric in a similar class, but also players like Pienaar (even if it didn't work out) and Kranjcar. Exploiting contract situations and players that want away is very much moneyball territory in football. Sandro, Kaboul, Ekotto, Walker etc also fall into this category.

The only players we have signed that have been clearly outside that category was when a player was needed to instantly fill a gap in the starting 11 that had to be able to do a job straight away was brought in. Palacios, Defoe and then Keane when Harry first signed. Hutton, Bentley and a few more under Ramos I think.

The key is that theoretically every player in the world is good enough to warrant a transfer value (to a club), although that number is very difficult to estimate accurately. Through good scouting and good work you can identify when a player that is good enough, and will fit in your team is available for less than that value for whatever reason. If you consistently bring in those players and only in "an emergency" or in special circumstances bring in players that cost more than their actual value then you are doing good moneyball work, in my opinion at least.

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Back to Liverpool: One of the reasons I wasn't convinced about the FSG "moneyball approach" to Liverpool and football was that this concept (to my understanding) completely changed Baseball, there were (ultimately) obvious truths about player abilities that were ignored or unknown while old fashioned irrelevancies were often decisive in transfers. Thus a club was able to gain a big advantage on other clubs through this moneyball based on stats approach. First of all stats would be much harder to use in football so identifying differences between actual value and rated value would be harder and football clubs have in general already fundamentally understood the moneyball concept and valuation of players quite well even though I don't think it had a fancy name. FSG were (like in the baseball story) not the first to do this, not by a long shot. They hoped to be Apple bringing out the iPad on the footballing world, but didn't realize that it was already there and they were just another random electronics company bringing out another iPad clone in a very competitive market.
 
if Liverpool finish again outside the top 4, will FSG sack Rodgers?.....i think its highly likely. Seems Rodgers is ok by this possibility.
 
jimmyb said:
Who on earth has the time to read all that?!!!

Summary from those who did manage to get through it, please!
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Selected snippets

His commitment to an expansive playing style has deep roots, dating back to his youth. ÔÇ£I was brought up in a traditional British way, 4-4-2 and kick the ball up the pitch,ÔÇØ he said.

ÔÇ£Whenever I was playing as a youth international with Northern Ireland we would play Spain, France, Switzerland and the like. And we were always chasing the ball. In my mind, even at that young age, I remember thinking ÔÇÿIÔÇÖd rather play in that team than this teamÔÇÖ.ÔÇØ
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ÔÇ£I wanted to be the best I possibly could,ÔÇØ he said. ÔÇ£I had a great education coming through the English FA, did courses with the Scottish FA but I also went out and travelled.

ÔÇ£I went to Spain, to Barcelona, Sevilla and Valencia. These are the best schools of football in the world, how they develop players. Then I spent time in Holland.

That was the ideology of football that I liked. I educated myself, watching, studying and learning. I knew my basic principles but because I had stopped playing early I had the time to go and learn from the very best. And the model was always Spain.ÔÇØ
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ÔÇ£My idea coming into this club was to play very attractive attacking football but always with tactical discipline,ÔÇØ he said. ÔÇ£People see the possession and they see the penetration, the imagination and the creativity, but weÔÇÖve had 23 clean sheets this year. So in nearly 50 per cent of our games we havenÔÇÖt conceded a goal.

ÔÇ£The example of the Barcelona model was a great influence and inspiration to me. When I was at the Chelsea academy, that was how my players would play, with that high, aggressive press, combined with the ability to keep the ball.

"ThatÔÇÖs something that weÔÇÖve then been able to roll out to here and defensively we play with high pressure and high aggression. Everyone knows their function within the system. It is like an orchestra, if one of them isnÔÇÖt doing it, you donÔÇÖt hit the right note.ÔÇØ
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ÔÇ£I wanted to make a difference. I went to Spain. I was a big lover of Spanish football and spoke the language. I spent a lot of time at Barcelona, talking and working with coaches, finding out about the model and the philosophy of the club. IÔÇÖd been to Sevilla, Valencia and Betis.

I also spent time in Holland. It was a sacrifice because I had a young family at the time but I had a real thirst for knowledge. I wanted to be the best I possibly could.ÔÇØ
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SwanseaÔÇÖs passing percentages are behind only Arsenal and Emirates Marketing Project. They do play a greater percentage of passes in their own half than any other side in the Premier League but it is all about being patient. To those raised on the orthodoxy of direct football this is baffling stuff.

ÔÇ£People will jump on us whenever we make a mistake. We had it against Manchester United. Angel Rangel had the ball at his feet and the commentary after the game is that heÔÇÖs got to kick it into row Z.

"He had time on the ball, why would he smash it up the pitch? He just made a mistake. We need to give our players confidence in their ability. To play this way you can have no fear. The players respect that if there are any goals conceded through playing football I take the blame.

ÔÇ£HereÔÇÖs another example. We were 2-0 up away at Wolves with six minutes to go but we failed to manage the pressure. We stopped playing it out from the back. We kicked the ball long and they got it and just smashed straight back into our box. Eventually we drew 2-2 and the players were devastated.

"I told them we needed to learn the six-minute game.

ÔÇ£The following week we worked on managing the pressure. But with the ball. Lo and behold the next game we are at Bolton. We are 2-0 up. With 17 minutes to go they go 2-1. You could sense the nerves in the crowd.

"How were we going to deal with it? For 10 minutes Bolton did not get a kick of the ball and, eventually, we got the goal to win 3-1.

"Afterwards in the dressing room it was fantastic ÔÇö that was how to manage pressure. When they had the momentum we sucked the life out of them.

ÔÇ£Our idea is to pass teams to a standstill so they can no longer come after you. Eventually you wear them down. We did that against one of the greatest teams in Tottenham. We did it against Manchester United in the second half. In the first half we were playing the history.

"What I said to them is 'now that you know what shirt you are getting, now can you play our game my friends?ÔÇÖ And they did.ÔÇØ

Yet for all the focus on SwanseaÔÇÖs passing, Rodgers is keen to stress that there is a lot more going on.

ÔÇ£People donÔÇÖt notice it with us because they always talk about our possession but the intensity of our pressure off the ball is great. If we have one moment of not pressing in the right way at the right time we are dead because we donÔÇÖt have the best players. What we have is one of the best teams.

ÔÇ£The strength of us is the team. Leo Messi has made it very difficult for players who think they are good players. HeÔÇÖs a real team player. He is ultimately the best player in the world and may go on to become the best ever. But heÔÇÖs also a team player.

"If you have someone like Messi doing it then IÔÇÖm sure my friend Nathan Dyer can do it. It is an easy sell.ÔÇØ
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Essentially he is a complete disciple of top football, how it works and how it should be played. Dedicated to learning as much as possible, and meticulous in every detail. Has a fantastic philosophy and has dedicated himself to making it happen.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Selected snippets









Essentially he is a complete disciple of top football, how it works and how it should be played. Dedicated to learning as much as possible, and meticulous in every detail. Has a fantastic philosophy and has dedicated himself to making it happen.
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great stuff

if he is given time and backing, he has the abilities to make Liverpool much better than what they are now. I remember the Liverpool team in the mid to late 80's, thats when i was becoming really interested in football, and Liverpool team was all about pass and move, possession football, that 5-0 over Forest at Anfield was one of the most amazing team performances ive ever seen, it still makes an impression on me when i think back. Rodgers is a manager who could bring back a performance like that. In time though
 
The interesting thing with Liverpool and Rodgers for me is: What are the ambitions for the coming season?

A year ago, the ambition for Liverpool and KKK was to get top 4. It would be a significant disappointment, if they didnt manage that and we all know, how that went.

Now; will the Yanks again insist on top 4 as the target, because then I really think, Rodgers will fail. Not because he is a bad manager, but because the squad isnt good enough. They finished 17 points behind 4th/us for christ sake.

They will need a new spending spree to be a top 4 team, which I dont think, the owners will allow. Certainly not in the same scale as last summer.
 
Moneyball concept with football, interesting. Not really parallels with baseball since baseball is basically 1-one-1 and very very statistic oriented. But yeah, the one comparison is develop young talent and sell them off for a high high price. I don't think Spurs have done that, ever. All of the A's incredible talent was developed in their minor league system (equivalent of an academy).
 
braineclipse said:
Levy has always been described as a "shrewd businessman", by some seemingly not particularly positively so. That to me is the essence of moneyball and his transfer strategy after the initial "5 year plan" failure under Hoddle has generally been one of shrewd business. I think Arnesen had a good influence on him, from what I remember reading at the time Arnesen really convinced Levy on how squad building should be done.
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It's not. Have you read the book?
 
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