Tim Sherwood…gone \o/

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

All I can see from these stats is the position from which the shots were taken from, it doesn't make any allowances for who is taking the shot, where the defenders are, what the score is, etc., etc., etc.

Is there actually any relevance to them?

I'd point you towards the same reading material as I did Jurgen and Pirate, but I fear (and please don't take this the wrong way, it's not meant as an insult) it might be a step too far. If your level of understanding is that far off (and you're not just playing the fool to make a point) I think you're probably a little outside of my ability to explain concepts, which is pretty poor to start with.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Does PDO or whatever take in to consideration the position of the opposition when shots are taken... If not in my view it's a incredibly flawed stat

The article I linked to on the last page shows that when shot position is taken into account, it makes AVB's low PDO even more ridiculous and Timmeh's high PDO even more ridiculous than that.

 

[Millsy_Yiddo]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

As it turns out when analysed, under AVB we actually had more shots per 90 from good positions than under Timmeh - so not only were we 'unlucky' in our shot percentage, we were 'unlucky' with more shots from good areas too. The same goes for goals conceded, from memory I think we conceded twice as many goals per shot from a good position under AVB as under Timmeh.

I understand your explanation I really do, but I find it difficult to fathom that you are just ignoring the fact that the above assumes every shot from a good position is equally likely/unlikely to go in when this is clearly not the case.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I understand your explanation I really do, but I find it difficult to fathom that you are just ignoring the fact that the above assumes every shot from a good position is equally likely/unlikely to go in when this is clearly not the case.

It doesn't assume that, it assumes that over time there will be a range and (given enough data) most ranges will be comparable. Hence why these things regress town over time.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I think that it will be up to some of the key players. Verthongen and Lloris have shown frustration of the lack of tactics, and i think they will leayve if Sherwood stays. Sherwood have been a huge success with a lot of points, but the only thing he has really done, is to bring back Adebayor and Eriksen (who was injured under AVB), and discover Bentaleb. We won 4-0 against a mediocre Saudi Sportswashing Machine team, and still Lloris was MoM, that says alot IMO.

Erm... has anybody got a veiw on what Danish Ardiles has allegedly noticed?
Or is Danish-ardiles just being a WUM??

 

[Millsy_Yiddo]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

It doesn't assume that, it assumes that over time there will be a range and (given enough data) most ranges will be comparable. Hence why these things regress town over time.

The range is based on raw data which can be heavily influenced by the way a team sets up to play. Over the course of a season (or whatever time period you choose) it is the raw data that determines the mean. Do you agree with that?

 

[GrimsbyYid]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

It doesn't assume that, it assumes that over time there will be a range and (given enough data) most ranges will be comparable. Hence why these things regress town over time.

Can you not see the glaring flaw in this utter bull**** you keep bringing up? It ASSUMES..... It is absolutely preposterous to ASSUME anything, especially as you keep calling it "cold hard facts"

It is utter bull****, and I'm sure everyone would really appreciate if you stopped patronising people, making out you're ****ing hyper intelligent and giving people reading lists you're not sure they'll even understand.

I liked AVB. I didn't like Tim. I wasn't convinced. I still don't like Tim. But Saudi Sportswashing Machine was impressive. I don't need to believe in the supernatural to inform my opinions.

 

[Pirate55]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

As with Jurgen, you really need to read up on the subject a bit more before making comments like that - it's entirely wide of the mark.

As I've already mentioned, I'm terrible at putting complicated ideas in layman's terms but I'll try:

PDO is what's left after as much as possible of the influence players and the manager have is taken out of the equation.So, City will have a slightly higher than mean PDO, Palace slightly lower but they will be within a very tight range.

It's a measure of how far above or below the average number of goals conceded and scored you are for a given number of shots for and against in a game. So to put it as simply as I can, under AVB we conceded more goals than the number of shots against us should have led to. We also scored fewer than the number of shots we had should have led to. Under Timmeh we have conceded far fewer goals than the shots against should have led to and scored far more than we should have with our shots taken.

Now the first criticism of that (and a valid one for PDO when using small sample sizes - larger ones tend to have a natural spread) is that it assumes all shots are equal. It doesn't, it assumes a spread as one would expect, but let's go with the shorthand anyway. So what we need to do is analyse the chances - if the criticism is correct it will probably reveal that all the shots under AVB were hit and hopes from 30yds (memory would lend credence to that).

As it turns out when analysed, under AVB we actually had more shots per 90 from good positions than under Timmeh - so not only were we 'unlucky' in our shot percentage, we were 'unlucky' with more shots from good areas too. The same goes for goals conceded, from memory I think we conceded twice as many goals per shot from a good position under AVB as under Timmeh.

It's well worth reading up on the list I gave Jurgen, it's a fascinating subject and will really widen your mind as well as massively improving your decision making in both life and business.

And therein lies the rub. It makes no sense to take players and managers out of the equation. Comparison of stats without these (and other) key components which directly influence games is futile IMO and serves no purpose.

It really doesn't do to over intellectualize games. It is just a ****ing GAME. An old boss of mine used to say you can over analyze things - he called it paralysis by analysis, whereby nothing would ever get actually DONE if you spend your whole time looking at something from every aspect.

Just sit back, cheer on the lads and try and enjoy it.

 

[JerusalemMan]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Seeing evidence and luck mentioned together along with a fear that a concept is too high-minded or complicated to be properly understood by some board members doesn't seem the strongest sounding side of the opinion see-saw.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I think that it will be up to some of the key players. Verthongen and Lloris have shown frustration of the lack of tactics, and i think they will leayve if Sherwood stays. Sherwood have been a huge success with a lot of points, but the only thing he has really done, is to bring back Adebayor and Eriksen (who was injured under AVB), and discover Bentaleb. We won 4-0 against a mediocre Saudi Sportswashing Machine team, and still Lloris was MoM, that says alot IMO.

Erm... has anybody got a veiw on what Danish Ardiles has allegedly noticed?
Or is Danish-ardiles just being a WUM??

Err hellllooooooooo??? Anyody??? ANYBODY?????

 

[DTA]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Err hellllooooooooo??? Anyody??? ANYBODY?????

He was asked for links or other evidence, but didn't provide any ( I don't think), so I'm guessing it's at best just an assumption.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

The range is based on raw data which can be heavily influenced by the way a team sets up to play. Over the course of a season (or whatever time period you choose) it is the raw data that determines the mean. Do you agree with that?

There is scope for a small variation based on style, certainly. But if you consider we're multiple times the deviation between City & Palace from the mean, it shows far more than style can account for.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Can you not see the glaring flaw in this utter bull**** you keep bringing up? It ASSUMES..... It is absolutely preposterous to ASSUME anything, especially as you keep calling it "cold hard facts"

Anger and aggression are no substitute for knowledge. If you'd like some help with the knowledge part, let me know. I'll step you through it as best I can.

You do realise that everything we see/understand is based on assumptions right? What we 'see' is just an assumption based on a small amount of vision and our brains making up the rest. Assumptions just make incredibly complex chains of events manageable by human brains (or even computers for that matter). Assumptions (especially over larger data sets) are perfectly valid, if you'd like to know more about why they're applicable I point you back to my reading list a page or so back.

It is utter bull****, and I'm sure everyone would really appreciate if you stopped patronising people, making out you're ****ing hyper intelligent and giving people reading lists you're not sure they'll even understand.

Thanks for the compliment but I'm far from hyper intelligent. A polymath at best.

Just because you don't get it, it doesn't make it bull****. I'm not offering reading lists to patronise people, I'm doing so to open their minds. Of course we could all just stick our heads in the sand and pretend that none of the ideas that challenge our old ways of thinking exist, but it won't make them go away and it certainly won't make them any less correct.

I liked AVB. I didn't like Tim. I wasn't convinced. I still don't like Tim. But Saudi Sportswashing Machine was impressive. I don't need to believe in the supernatural to inform my opinions.

Funny you mention Saudi Sportswashing Machine because they're the perfect example of the PDO deviation between AVB and Timmeh. Two very similar performances, both of which should have seen us comfortable winners. Factors out of our control meant that we lost one and won the other.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

And therein lies the rub. It makes no sense to take players and managers out of the equation. Comparison of stats without these (and other) key components which directly influence games is futile IMO and serves no purpose.

It really doesn't do to over intellectualize games. It is just a ****ing GAME. An old boss of mine used to say you can over analyze things - he called it paralysis by analysis, whereby nothing would ever get actually DONE if you spend your whole time looking at something from every aspect.

Just sit back, cheer on the lads and try and enjoy it.

I'm very glad you've said that as it shows me precisely where the gap in your understanding is.

Randomness.

It's a very common misconception to believe that we can control all events - we overwhelmingly can't. I suspect there's an evolutionary advantage to that belief as is doesn't appear to be societal or learned. There is always a pretty large chunk of randomness to everything and it's out of our control. As has been proven on James Grayson's blog, over 60% of PDO is based on uncontrollable events (randomness). Usually randomness will deal a reasonably even hand (note, that doesn't mean that it will even itself out) but sometimes it will cause a long chain of negative events (AVB) and sometimes a long chain of positive ones (Timmeh so far).

Oh, and your old boss sounds like he makes his decisions without information - not a sensible approach unless you believe in hoodoo and woo.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Seeing evidence and luck mentioned together along with a fear that a concept is too high-minded or complicated to be properly understood by some board members doesn't seem the strongest sounding side of the opinion see-saw.

I use the word luck as it's shorthand for "a reasonably improbable string of positive or negative events outside of that which we can control and entirely caused by randomness" - I suspect most would rather read the word luck too. You also have to take into account that people understand luck (as a concept, not the cause of it), very very few people properly understand randomness - just look at how an entire generation uses the word random.

 

[thfcsteff]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I'm very glad you've said that as it shows me precisely where the gap in your understanding is.

Randomness.

It's a very common misconception to believe that we can control all events - we overwhelmingly can't. I suspect there's an evolutionary advantage to that belief as is doesn't appear to be societal or learned. There is always a pretty large chunk of randomness to everything and it's out of our control. As has been proven on James Grayson's blog, over 60% of PDO is based on uncontrollable events (randomness). Usually randomness will deal a reasonably even hand (note, that doesn't mean that it will even itself out) but sometimes it will cause a long chain of negative events (AVB) and sometimes a long chain of positive ones (Timmeh so far).

Oh, and your old boss sounds like he makes his decisions without information - not a sensible approach unless you believe in hoodoo and woo.

This is 100%…in fact, life becomes so much easier when we acquiesce and control only what we CAN control as opposed to try and control matters beyond our scope. And on that, you'd surely have to give Sherwood the credit of being smart enough to control what he can (i.e. use every part of his squad, not freeze elements out, etc)...

 

[RomanzoCriminale]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Football is about entertainment, winning, goals, excitement, passion, attacking flair, skills, flicks, tricks, flukes, screamers, great moves, that why we love Spurs right?....... under AVB it was dull, boring, turgid, rigid, all about possession, passback, no clear cut chances, excuses, stats zzzzzz..... it got to the point where i no longer wanted to watch Spurs, i couldn't sit through it, it was crap, anyone who says different, or who says Bale wasn't the only reasons it wasn't the same last year is either lying or is blinkered.......i've supported Spurs passionately since 81 and not even under Graham did i ever not go see them, nor want to switch off. AVB really made me question my loyalty and love for the game, I think anyone not blown away by the smart suits, the way he spoke and the bluff about stats/possession could see through him, the guys a fraud, basing his career on trying to copy Mourinho, but it seems his arrogance and belief in himself actually irritates people, rather than builds up an aura and idolism.

Scara talks about Sherwood should never have been given a chance because he didn't have any experience, well flip that around, surely AVB should never have been given a chance because of the mess he made at Chelsea ....... funny for someone who comes across as a Tory (Scara), it seems strange he's so against someone who seems driven to succeed and wants to make something of himself (Sherwood) and moreso giving him that chance.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter what Sherwood does he's destined to fail, don't all managers eventually, even Fergie failed with the dross he left Moyes right? I can't imagine what its like to be sat there waiting for it to happen, just so they can say we told you so....... one day, doesn't matter if we win 1,2,3 or more trophies under SHerwood, one day he'll be sacked, or maybe even poached (but then he'll be a different type of **** right!) but on that day they'll have won and thats sad, because i think they just might miss out on a few great years of football if he's given the chance to build something.

Some of the rubbish written in this thread is ridiculous, the lies about what Sherwood said, the name calling, the crap about stats, how people talk etc, my word...... i bet the same people calling Sherwood all these names are the same ones that were calling Rogers clueless Brenton last year.

Why not give the guy a break, its clear he loves the club, is passionate to succeed..... can you really be sure that LVG, De'Boar etc will guarantee success. Won't they just come in and rip out the heart of the club like AVB did and want their own squad, how long will that take? To me this last window was like a breath of fresh air, no ITK bull****, no influx of new players who need time to settle, no favourite players sold on to bring in funds, just a manager who said he wants to work with a great/talented group of players, to me that says more about Sherwood's credentials than any previous managerial experience.

 

[Pirate55]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I'm very glad you've said that as it shows me precisely where the gap in your understanding is.

Randomness.

It's a very common misconception to believe that we can control all events - we overwhelmingly can't. I suspect there's an evolutionary advantage to that belief as is doesn't appear to be societal or learned. There is always a pretty large chunk of randomness to everything and it's out of our control. As has been proven on James Grayson's blog, over 60% of PDO is based on uncontrollable events (randomness). Usually randomness will deal a reasonably even hand (note, that doesn't mean that it will even itself out) but sometimes it will cause a long chain of negative events (AVB) and sometimes a long chain of positive ones (Timmeh so far).

Oh, and your old boss sounds like he makes his decisions without information - not a sensible approach unless you believe in hoodoo and woo.

My old boss actually did quite well for himself , being as he was a multi-billionaire. He didn't make decisions based on no information, he just based it on enough information to make a decision, neither too much nor not enough. He wasn't stymied from making a decision by delaying ad norsiam and waiting for the "perfect" answer.

Randomness in your equation doesn't allow for the players or for the coach. Yet you say the "natural" POD of Emirates Marketing Project is higher than that of Crystal Palace. Why is that then? What is our level of POD that we"should" achieve over time? Is it higher than Palace and lower than City? If so, why?

Is there nothing we can do - new players, different coach, different tactics - which will alter our POD? If the answer is yes, then surely it is a meaningless concept. If the answer is no, then it doesn't matter what our team is, what tactics are employed or who the coach is. Either way, the POD cocept is fundamentally flawed IMO.

By the way, wasn't it Arnold Palmer who said " funnily enough, the more I practice the luckier I get" ?

 

[Pirate55]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Football is about entertainment, winning, goals, excitement, passion, attacking flair, skills, flicks, tricks, flukes, screamers, great moves, that why we love Spurs right?....... under AVB it was dull, boring, turgid, rigid, all about possession, passback, no clear cut chances, excuses, stats zzzzzz..... it got to the point where i no longer wanted to watch Spurs, i couldn't sit through it, it was crap, anyone who says different, or who says Bale wasn't the only reasons it wasn't the same last year is either lying or is blinkered.......i've supported Spurs passionately since 81 and not even under Graham did i ever not go see them, nor want to switch off. AVB really made me question my loyalty and love for the game, I think anyone not blown away by the smart suits, the way he spoke and the bluff about stats/possession could see through him, the guys a fraud, basing his career on trying to copy Mourinho, but it seems his arrogance and belief in himself actually irritates people, rather than builds up an aura and idolism.

Scara talks about Sherwood should never have been given a chance because he didn't have any experience, well flip that around, surely AVB should never have been given a chance because of the mess he made at Chelsea ....... funny for someone who comes across as a Tory (Scara), it seems strange he's so against someone who seems driven to succeed and wants to make something of himself (Sherwood) and moreso giving him that chance.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter what Sherwood does he's destined to fail, don't all managers eventually, even Fergie failed with the dross he left Moyes right? I can't imagine what its like to be sat there waiting for it to happen, just so they can say we told you so....... one day, doesn't matter if we win 1,2,3 or more trophies under SHerwood, one day he'll be sacked, or maybe even poached (but then he'll be a different type of **** right!) but on that day they'll have won and thats sad, because i think they just might miss out on a few great years of football if he's given the chance to build something.

Some of the rubbish written in this thread is ridiculous, the lies about what Sherwood said, the name calling, the crap about stats, how people talk etc, my word...... i bet the same people calling Sherwood all these names are the same ones that were calling Rogers clueless Brenton last year.

Why not give the guy a break, its clear he loves the club, is passionate to succeed..... can you really be sure that LVG, De'Boar etc will guarantee success. Won't they just come in and rip out the heart of the club like AVB did and want their own squad, how long will that take? To me this last window was like a breath of fresh air, no ITK bull****, no influx of new players who need time to settle, no favourite players sold on to bring in funds, just a manager who said he wants to work with a great/talented group of players, to me that says more about Sherwood's credentials than any previous managerial experience.

Your not wrong fella, but I'm just sitting back waiting for the self appointed, one man protector of AVB's reputation to go apoplectic........

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

My old boss actually did quite well for himself , being as he was a multi-billionaire. He didn't make decisions based on no information, he just based it on enough information to make a decision, neither too much nor not enough. He wasn't stymied from making a decision by delaying ad norsiam and waiting for the "perfect" answer.

Randomness in your equation doesn't allow for the players or for the coach. Yet you say the "natural" POD of Emirates Marketing Project is higher than that of Crystal Palace. Why is that then? What is our level of POD that we"should" achieve over time? Is it higher than Palace and lower than City? If so, why?

Is there nothing we can do - new players, different coach, different tactics - which will alter our POD? If the answer is yes, then surely it is a meaningless concept. If the answer is no, then it doesn't matter what our team is, what tactics are employed or who the coach is. Either way, the POD cocept is fundamentally flawed IMO.

By the way, wasn't it Arnold Palmer who said " funnily enough, the more I practice the luckier I get" ?

Please, please please read up on this stuff before making comments like that - it really doesn't do you any favours.

It's not my equation or anyone else's where randomness doesn't allow for factors, randomness never allows for factors - that's why it's randomness.

Arnold Palmer may be a great sportsman but he's clearly a ****ing idiot with no understanding whatsoever of how randomness works. I won't be listening to his opinion on mathematics or statistics any more than I'd trust Kyle Walker to run the LHC.

Obviously the answer to affecting PDO is somewhere between your two assumptions, as I've already mentioned you can alter your PDO a very small amount, but large swings like the one we've had simply can't be put down to players or coaching staff. If you turned Rotherham into Barca there would probably be less of a shift.