Tim Sherwood…gone \o/

[Jurgen the German]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

That's an interesting take on the Osman chances.

The volley I'll give you, but the header was free and the curling shot (or the one that should have curled) was shown in a replay from behind him and he had a clear view to a large part of the goal with Lloris unsighted. By all rights two of them should have been goals (another example of Timmeh getting a PDO bump).

Also, only the header would have been a prime position I believe. The volley would have been a marginal shot and the curler was I think slightly outside the box and therefore also marginal - I may be wrong on that one.

Wasn't one of those "chances" a curling shot from outside the area with his weak foot? Considering he's never scored more than 6 league goals in a season it was hardly a chance. I wouldn't expect Dembele or Lennon to score in a similar position on their weak foot.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Wasn't one of those "chances" a curling shot from outside the area with his weak foot? Considering he's never scored more than 6 league goals in a season it was hardly a chance. I wouldn't expect Dembele or Lennon to score in a similar position on their weak foot.

I would expect any of our midfielders (especially a one regularly playing in the hole) to score from that angle with that space and that clear a view of the corner.

 

[Jurgen the German]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Read the article, despite your belief we had more shots from good areas per match under AVB but fewer went. We gave away the same number but more went in. That's about as close a measurement of luck as anyone can get in football.

The point is that PDO whatever that means is over analytical. We weren't creating chances under AVB and we weren't committing enough men going forward I don't care what the heap maps say. There's no just no way anyone can say we were unlucky under AVB, if anything you could say the opposite, we relied on (dodgy) penalties to win at least 4 games. The only defeat we suffered this season that you could say was unjustified was Saudi Sportswashing Machine.

I'm not denying we've won some games since Sherwood took charge that we were a bit fortunate to win, but no more than the games we won under AVB.

 

[Jurgen the German]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I would expect any of our midfielders (especially a one regularly playing in the hole) to score from that angle with that space and that clear a view of the corner.

From outside the area on their weak foot? I think even Aaron Ramsey would consider that a half chance at best.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

The point is that PDO whatever that means is over analytical.

A common response when stats remind us just how flawed/biased our memories are.

We weren't creating chances under AVB

Cold hard facts would suggest otherwise.

and we weren't committing enough men going forward

That may be.

I don't care what the heap maps say.

See my first point.

There's no just no way anyone can say we were unlucky under AVB, if anything you could say the opposite, we relied on (dodgy) penalties to win at least 4 games. The only defeat we suffered this season that you could say was unjustified was Saudi Sportswashing Machine.

Again, the evidence suggests the truth is very different.

I'm not denying we've won some games since Sherwood took charge that we were a bit fortunate to win, but no more than the games we won under AVB.

Did you read the article? And the one before it? I'm not sure how clearly facts need to be presented before you believe them over your opinion.

 

[Jurgen the German]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

A common response when stats remind us just how flawed/biased our memories are.



Cold hard facts would suggest otherwise.



That may be.



See my first point.



Again, the evidence suggests the truth is very different.



Did you read the article? And the one before it? I'm not sure how clearly facts need to be presented before you believe them over your opinion.

They are not "facts" though are. They're opinion based stats. The fact that you think a shot from outside the box on a player's weaker foot constitutes a chance doesn't mean it is a chance, many people would disagree. Dominating possession and losing a game does not make you unlucky. We had many games under previous managers where we had 65% possession but the keeper hardly made a save, that is not dominating. I'd love to know what the hallowed PDO says about the Liverpool and Emirates Marketing Project defeats, do you have the stats for those games by any chance?

 

[Jurgen the German]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Case in point, Emirates Marketing Project have had all of the possession tonight but Hart has barely had a save to make.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

People are trying to make football more complicated then it is. I hate to sound like redknapp as i was not a fan of his but football is not played on paper and statistics can be manipulated to make you think different things.

Im not sure on Sherwood but it is obvious to anyone who has actually watched football that Sherwood has actually set the team out to attack and give them more freedom and we look like picking up better results because of it then we did under avb. Should we upgrade on Sherwood in the summer? well i would be wary because of what we have done in the past and would prefer only a coach who has done it in our league but yeah i could get behind an upgrade.

The way some of you are trying to make football into some sort of topic for intellectual study is rather pathetic, just trying enjoying the actual match fellas.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

They are not "facts" though are. They're opinion based stats. The fact that you think a shot from outside the box on a player's weaker foot constitutes a chance doesn't mean it is a chance, many people would disagree. Dominating possession and losing a game does not make you unlucky. We had many games under previous managers where we had 65% possession but the keeper hardly made a save, that is not dominating. I'd love to know what the hallowed PDO says about the Liverpool and Emirates Marketing Project defeats, do you have the stats for those games by any chance?

I think you misunderstand what PDO is - it's a fairly common misconception. I really do suggest reading James Grayson's blog - you'll learn a lot and if you read it properly it will change how you think about football.

PDO doesn't really tell you anything about a single match, just like flipping two heads in a row is neither likely nor unlikely. In fact, none of your post really has much at all to do with the point in hand. I'm not great at putting things in layman's terms (in fact I'm terrible at it) so I really do suggest reading James's excellent blog. If you don't get on well with that, there's plenty on the Internet to cover regression to mean, randomness and probability. If you prefer paper then try The Drunkard's Walk - an excellent book by an excellent author. Or for something a little lighter, try The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, another great author.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Case in point, Emirates Marketing Project have had all of the possession tonight but Hart has barely had a save to make.

Nothing to do with PDO whatsoever. Nor with the point i was making.

 

[DHSF]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Are we still on this whole statistical bull ****? ****in hell. Clutching at straws. I fathom to believe that the those who are still on Tims case actually believe what they say and in actuality I cant believe they dont realise how silly they are starting to look. Someone close by them really need to intervene - we need to have an intervention.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Are we still on this whole statistical bull ****? ****in hell. Clutching at straws. I fathom to believe that the those who are still on Tims case actually believe what they say and in actuality I cant believe they dont realise how silly they are starting to look. Someone close by them really need to intervene - we need to have an intervention.

I am not sure if i have ever disagreed with anything you have ever said, maybe you are my soul mate.

 

[Pirate55]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Are we still on this whole statistical bull ****? ****in hell. Clutching at straws. I fathom to believe that the those who are still on Tims case actually believe what they say and in actuality I cant believe they dont realise how silly they are starting to look. Someone close by them really need to intervene - we need to have an intervention.

Well said.

 

[DTA]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Does PDO or whatever take in to consideration the position of the opposition when shots are taken... If not in my view it's a incredibly flawed stat

 

[Pirate55]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

PDO is essentially as close an indicator as we can get to 'luck'.

So to suggest that AVB's PDO wouldn't have increased and that employing Timmeh is what put it where it is, is suggesting that Timmeh is somehow 'lucky' and AVB somehow 'unlucky'.

This argument is inherently flawed. It assumes that different coaches have no influence whatsoever on the outcomes of games for regression to mean or PDO to come into effect. Rather than one being luckier or unluckier, how about one actually being better than another? How exactly does that factor in to the equation. All coaches are not equal.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I think that it will be up to some of the key players. Verthongen and Lloris have shown frustration of the lack of tactics, and i think they will leayve if Sherwood stays. Sherwood have been a huge success with a lot of points, but the only thing he has really done, is to bring back Adebayor and Eriksen (who was injured under AVB), and discover Bentaleb. We won 4-0 against a mediocre Saudi Sportswashing Machine team, and still Lloris was MoM, that says alot IMO.

I see you still haven't backed up what you sated here a day or two age. Unless you do it makes you look like a WUM.

Can I ask if anybody else has this view? Or see anything like what has been said above, i.e that is Verts and Hugo have "shown frustration of the lack of tactics"???

 

[camspur]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Does PDO or whatever take in to consideration the position of the opposition when shots are taken... If not in my view it's a incredibly flawed stat

“PDO is the sum of a team’s shooting percentage (goals/shots on target) and it’s save percentage (saves/shots on target against). It treats each shot as having an equal chance of being scored – regardless of location, the shooter, or the identity or position of the ‘keeper and any defenders. Despite this obvious shortcoming it regresses heavily towards the mean – meaning that it has a large luck component. In fact, over the course of a Premiership season, the distance a team’s PDO is from 1000 is ~60% luck.”

So basically its a BS stat made up by somebody to try to analyse something that cannot be analysed.

 

[AuroRaman]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Every time I struggle to sleep, all I need to do is venture into this thre...zzzzzzzzz

 

[camspur]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Another interesting angle on Timmeh's time here:

http://www.statsbomb.com/2014/02/tottenham-lucky-tim-sherwood-and-why-results-can-be-misleading/

Certainly puts paid to the suggestion that the two playing styles caused different shot types.

Sent from my SGP311 using Fapatalk

All I can see from these stats is the position from which the shots were taken from, it doesn't make any allowances for who is taking the shot, where the defenders are, what the score is, etc., etc., etc.

Is there actually any relevance to them?

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

This argument is inherently flawed. It assumes that different coaches have no influence whatsoever on the outcomes of games for regression to mean or PDO to come into effect. Rather than one being luckier or unluckier, how about one actually being better than another? How exactly does that factor in to the equation. All coaches are not equal.

As with Jurgen, you really need to read up on the subject a bit more before making comments like that - it's entirely wide of the mark.

As I've already mentioned, I'm terrible at putting complicated ideas in layman's terms but I'll try:

PDO is what's left after as much as possible of the influence players and the manager have is taken out of the equation. So, City will have a slightly higher than mean PDO, Palace slightly lower but they will be within a very tight range.

It's a measure of how far above or below the average number of goals conceded and scored you are for a given number of shots for and against in a game. So to put it as simply as I can, under AVB we conceded more goals than the number of shots against us should have led to. We also scored fewer than the number of shots we had should have led to. Under Timmeh we have conceded far fewer goals than the shots against should have led to and scored far more than we should have with our shots taken.

Now the first criticism of that (and a valid one for PDO when using small sample sizes - larger ones tend to have a natural spread) is that it assumes all shots are equal. It doesn't, it assumes a spread as one would expect, but let's go with the shorthand anyway. So what we need to do is analyse the chances - if the criticism is correct it will probably reveal that all the shots under AVB were hit and hopes from 30yds (memory would lend credence to that).

As it turns out when analysed, under AVB we actually had more shots per 90 from good positions than under Timmeh - so not only were we 'unlucky' in our shot percentage, we were 'unlucky' with more shots from good areas too. The same goes for goals conceded, from memory I think we conceded twice as many goals per shot from a good position under AVB as under Timmeh.

It's well worth reading up on the list I gave Jurgen, it's a fascinating subject and will really widen your mind as well as massively improving your decision making in both life and business.