The Stats Thread

[Bedfordspurs]

Just to revive this ..

Someone put together a PowerBI view, you can slice and view the data, comparisons, etc. (multiple leagues, player positions, etc.)

Take a look if bored -> https://lnkd.in/gQd7ZnJ

Just gonna ask.. does it mean that those fans who’s say they can see with their eyes better are right?
I’m thinking more of the winks argument (what does he do)!!!
Every time someone posts the positive stats there are always those that deny them

 

[Raziel]

Just gonna ask.. does it mean that those fans who’s say they can see with their eyes better are right?
I’m thinking more of the winks argument (what does he do)!!!
Every time someone posts the positive stats there are always those that deny them

Data/Statistics is always about interpretations .. to me it's simple

- Did you look at the data and come to a conclusion? and is there any other arguments that can validate that conclusion?
- Or did you have a conclusion and looked for the data to confirm that?

Most people opt for the second view ..

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Data/Statistics is always about interpretations .. to me it's simple

- Did you look at the data and come to a conclusion? and is there any other arguments that can validate that conclusion?
- Or did you have a conclusion and looked for the data to confirm that?

Most people opt for the second view ..

or the data shows that something actually happens
But because you have a view that you won’t change then you say the stats are wrong

 

[Spur of the moment]

Data/Statistics is always about interpretations .. to me it's simple

- Did you look at the data and come to a conclusion? and is there any other arguments that can validate that conclusion?
- Or did you have a conclusion and looked for the data to confirm that?

Most people opt for the second view ..

Is this statement based on stats ... or what ???

 

[Raziel]

Is this statement based on stats ... or what ???

Nahh .. for that one I would have to pull out the "70% (weirdly rounded number) of people chose option 2" (no source of data, and when pressed use some sample group of 5 people as proof)

 

[milo]

'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/aug/09/liverpool-xg-jurgen-klopp

 

[parklane1]

'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/aug/09/liverpool-xg-jurgen-klopp

I know there are some on here who worship xg stats, but they are one of the most stupid of stats that are used by fans to prove NOTHING in reality.

 

[elltrev]

'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/aug/09/liverpool-xg-jurgen-klopp

Read this article this morning too. The interesting thing with Liverpool is that their goals for and against aren't that unusual compared to expected (Liverpool are the red dot, the other dots are the other 19 PL teams):





(And I'd argue that those graphs also show that the xG model is pretty decent, taking into account that different teams will have different abilities in finishing and goalkeeping. Correlation is 94% for goals for, and 84% for goals against).

But then on points, Liverpool do way better than expected:



But rather than it being a flaw in the xG model, I wonder if it just reflects Liverpool displaying the classic title-winning trait of winning when you don't play well - in close games where they should have drawn or lost, finding the finishing and/or goalkeeping edge to win instead.

 

[Kandi1977]

Read this article this morning too. The interesting thing with Liverpool is that their goals for and against aren't that unusual compared to expected (Liverpool are the red dot, the other dots are the other 19 PL teams):

View attachment 9148

View attachment 9149

(And I'd argue that those graphs also show that the xG model is pretty decent, taking into account that different teams will have different abilities in finishing and goalkeeping. Correlation is 94% for goals for, and 84% for goals against).

But then on points, Liverpool do way better than expected:

View attachment 9150

But rather than it being a flaw in the xG model, I wonder if it just reflects Liverpool displaying the classic title-winning trait - winning when you don't play well - in close games where they should have drawn or lost, finding the finishing and/or goalkeeping edge to win instead.

It also helps that the refs points to the spot every time a Liverpool player falls over in the box*

*does not even have to be inside the box when it's Liverpool.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/aug/09/liverpool-xg-jurgen-klopp

Have you seen the athletics article on possessions? It’s actually interesting and shows the difference between a side and player that uses the ball and one that chase and forced errors
City vs pool was massively disparate

 

[Bedfordspurs]

I know there are some on here who worship xg stats, but they are one of the most stupid of stats that are used by fans to prove NOTHING in reality.

You need to see Xg for assist before you complain... yep that’s a stat of when a pass should have lead to a high chance goal xg (sorry poor language)

 

[elltrev]

It also helps that the refs points to the spot every time a Liverpool player falls over in the box*

*does not even have to be inside the box when it's Liverpool.

To be fair that would just contribute to a high xG, rather than a high number of goals compared to xG!

 

[Kandi1977]

To be fair that would just contribute to a high xG, rather than a high number of goals compared to xG!

That depends. Most xG stats i see, exclude penalties/add them as separate. I.e xG 2.23 + 1 pen

 

[elltrev]

That depends. Most xG stats i see, exclude penalties/add them as separate. I.e xG 2.23 + 1 pen

Fair point! The stats I posted above include pens though I think.

 

[Baleforce]

The take away for me is that the dippers did more of a Leicester than a City, probably because of similar “preparation”.

 

[scaramanga]

Read this article this morning too. The interesting thing with Liverpool is that their goals for and against aren't that unusual compared to expected (Liverpool are the red dot, the other dots are the other 19 PL teams):

View attachment 9148

View attachment 9149

(And I'd argue that those graphs also show that the xG model is pretty decent, taking into account that different teams will have different abilities in finishing and goalkeeping. Correlation is 94% for goals for, and 84% for goals against).

But then on points, Liverpool do way better than expected:

View attachment 9150

But rather than it being a flaw in the xG model, I wonder if it just reflects Liverpool displaying the classic title-winning trait of winning when you don't play well - in close games where they should have drawn or lost, finding the finishing and/or goalkeeping edge to win instead.

That and getting A LOT of decisions their way - like Leicester when they stole it.

 

[Bishop]

Have you seen the athletics article on possessions? It’s actually interesting and shows the difference between a side and player that uses the ball and one that chase and forced errors
City vs pool was massively disparate

Not having seen the article I can see the logic. Forcing an error likely means you turn the ball over earlier and closer to the opposition goal with their defense unprepared and out of position.

AVB and Poch both made that a cornerstone of their philospohies here and with Poch at least it did work during the first 3 years. We would just eventually overrun the opposition and that mental fatigue led to a great many goals despite the side actually being fairly lacking terms of overall creativity.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Not having seen the article I can see the logic. Forcing an error likely means you turn the ball over earlier and closer to the opposition goal with their defense unprepared and out of position.

AVB and Poch both made that a cornerstone of their philospohies here and with Poch at least it did work during the first 3 years. We would just eventually overrun the opposition and that mental fatigue led to a great many goals despite the side actually being fairly lacking terms of overall creativity.

It’s worth seeing
The “argument” is possession vs possessions are two very distinct things
Pool have very few players who do well with the ball this way, their game is vey much focussed on turnover and much much fewer passes
City barely lose the ball at all and keep it at will
They had 5 out of the 10 top players for possession. Can’t remember who else was on the list but Winks was
The logic of this approach is that possession players keep the momentum going and drive those mistakes.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Not having seen the article I can see the logic. Forcing an error likely means you turn the ball over earlier and closer to the opposition goal with their defense unprepared and out of position.

AVB and Poch both made that a cornerstone of their philospohies here and with Poch at least it did work during the first 3 years. We would just eventually overrun the opposition and that mental fatigue led to a great many goals despite the side actually being fairly lacking terms of overall creativity.

 

[Bishop]

It’s worth seeing
The “argument” is possession vs possessions are two very distinct things
Pool have very few players who do well with the ball this way, their game is vey much focussed on turnover and much much fewer passes
City barely lose the ball at all and keep it at will
They had 5 out of the 10 top players for possession. Can’t remember who else was on the list but Winks was
The logic of this approach is that possession players keep the momentum going and drive those mistakes.

Barcelona were the perfection of this model because they had Xavi, Iniesta and Messi (amongst others) who could keep possession neatly but also play the key pass when the opening was there. The constant movement of the ball eventually led to mental fatigue and the killer ball was there to be played.

I like both systems and don't think either route is better than the other. Although the Barca route does requires a higher level of entry.

I'm happy enough going with the quick counter on transition as Jose seems to be intending, as I've mentioned before his Real side were absolute monsters at this. Just need to add a few key elements to make it work, we aren't a millions miles off being really good at it.