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Set Pieces

How do you know how we compare to others if you aren't relying on stats for the numbers? Do you watch every game across the league and keep a record of goals which match your criteria?
 
billyiddo said:
How do you know how we compare to others if you aren't relying on stats for the numbers? Do you watch every game and keep a record of goals which match your criteria?
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I have given you my criteria. From that it is abundantly clear.
 
Pirate55 said:
As Scara and others know, I don't have much faith in stats - as the underlying sources/definitions must be thoroughly interrogated before any reliance at all is placed on them. This healthy scepticism comes from having studied Statistics as part of my course at Cambridge.

You will no doubt have seen my critique of SteveAwols two posts in the Gooner thread showing two very different xG results from that game. He agreed the methodology still needs to be tightened up and that it was a "blunt instrument".

It again demonstrates that those that use stats in football to argue a particular point can equally be misled. The only stats that can be definitively relied upon in my opinion are those that are factual - i.e. numbers of goals, corners, free-kicks. Those are totally objective and verifiable. Others such as possession, xG, accuracy of pass are subjective and reliant on someone's opinion to make a judgement. It may or may not be based on some arbitrarily laid down "rules" but in the final analysis, it is not, repeat, not based on actual facts.

Be truthful now, how many of the goals identified above by Nayim as coming from corners or free-kicks would you call as actually having been directly created from that dead-ball situation? You still haven't identified for me the five goals you put forward by Who.scored ?
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A healthy scepticism of stats is a good thing. That's not what you're representing in this argument imo.

You have an education including statistics, but you return again and again to a small handful of cherry picked examples. It's literally like terms like small sample size and high variance mean nothing to you. What is the value of these individual data points out of context from a statistical point of view? In your educated opinion.

Yes, no goals directly from a set piece. Find me statistics for other teams using that definition with a good sample size.
 
billyiddo said:
The 6 goals from set pieces on one night of CL football? That's what you're basing your opinion on?
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As you will know, this has been my opinion for some time. For example, when was the last time we scored direct from a free kick?

I am worried that Poch may be influenced by the stats phalanx who think there is no problem with our dead balls and so is not working on a solution to fix what I consider a standout problem.

I also think some may have the tendency to mistake stats for facts.

Anyhow, enough of this fascinating discussion, I am off to South Africa today. Anyone know where I can watch the game on Saturday in Cape Town?
 
Pirate55 said:
Thats precisely my point. They are NOT all interpreted in the same manner. Lets take free kicks, in my view a goal from a corner or free kick is only one that is scored directly or from the first contact thereafter. Others take the view that it should count for example if the free-kick is played short and then crossed for someone to score, then that is a goal from that free-kick. Others may say it is two (or maybe three) touches after the free-kick has been taken. Some will apply a time criteria - say five, ten, fifteen or twenty seconds (maybe more if the Whoscored definition is to be applied). The answer is that all these are subjective - so it really does mater how they are interpreted.
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It doesn't matter what you consider to be the correct measure, it matters that those taking the sample data do so in a regular and even manner.

Whoscored get their data from OPTA, so unless you have a significantly better argument than "I don't like it," it's probably best to accept their findings as they are.
 
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scaramanga said:
It doesn't matter what you consider to be the correct measure, it matters that those taking the sample data do so in a regular and even manner.

Whoscored get their data from OPTA, so unless you have a significantly better argument than "I don't like it," it's probably best to accept their findings as they are.
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You accept it like an uncritical lemming if you wish, others have a more intellectual approach to how statistics are derived.
 
Pirate55 said:
For example, when was the last time we scored direct from a free kick?
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As per this summer, Eriksen had a freekick conversion rate of 11,5% - he's scored 6 direct freekicks since he joined us in 2013. To compare, Luis Suarez scored 5 direct freekicks when he was at Liverpool, with a conversation rate of 17,5%.

In this article, they look at the top five ranked freekick takers in the Premier League by goals scored and their conversion rate from set-pieces since the 2011/12 season.
https://www.sportskeeda.com/football/premier-league-top-5-free-kick-takers-recent-years-2

Of the players still in the league, Eriksen is 5th. Eriksen is quoted in the article saying:
“I’ve practised free-kicks since I was very young. I’ve always known I had a good shot, and I know what feeling I need to have to get the ball on goal.”

Sure, he scored more direct freekicks in his first two seasons for us, but he had a belter for Denmark only two months ago, so clearly he's got the skills needed still.

Anyways - 6 goals in 3 and half years. And he's the 5th best in the league at it. It's a decent weapon to have (and we do in fact have it), but it's certainly not crucial, I would argue. :)
 
Pirate55 said:
As you will know, this has been my opinion for some time. For example, when was the last time we scored direct from a free kick?

I am worried that Poch may be influenced by the stats phalanx who think there is no problem with our dead balls and so is not working on a solution to fix what I consider a standout problem.

I also think some may have the tendency to mistake stats for facts.

Anyhow, enough of this fascinating discussion, I am off to South Africa today. Anyone know where I can watch the game on Saturday in Cape Town?
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I know it has been your opinion but I always assumed you were basing it something concrete - last season i seem to recall you using our relatively low position on the set piece goals table as proof of our poor set pieces but now this season we are quite well placed on that table you seem to be dismissing it...

For me to think there was something out of the ordinary with our set pieces I'd have to either see some numbers which compare our goals scored from set pieces to other sides over a fair amount of time or watch all the set pieces taken by us and every other team over a fair amount of time - I don't have a life that allows the latter and nor do I suspect do you, so I'm left a little confused as to what you're actually basing your thinking on

Honestly seems like a case bias confirmation based on what you've posted on the matter
 
Pirate55 said:
You accept it like an uncritical lemming if you wish, others have a more intellectual approach to how statistics are derived.
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OPTA stats are very, very highly regarded.

You can claim that their stats are unreliable, just as you can try and tell James Dyson how to make vacuum cleaners or Marco Tencone how to design cars. You'll end up looking a fool if you do though.
 
billyiddo said:
I know it has been your opinion but I always assumed you were basing it something concrete - last season i seem to recall you using our relatively low position on the set piece goals table as proof of our poor set pieces but now this season we are quite well placed on that table you seem to be dismissing it...

For me to think there was something out of the ordinary with our set pieces I'd have to either see some numbers which compare our goals scored from set pieces to other sides over a fair amount of time or watch all the set pieces taken by us and every other team over a fair amount of time - I don't have a life that allows the latter and nor do I suspect do you, so I'm left a little confused as to what you're actually basing your thinking on

Honestly seems like a case bias confirmation based on what you've posted on the matter
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I hope you would agree with me and BE that we have not scored any goals this season direct from set pieces.

NO goals scored from direct set pieces this season - None, nada, zero, zilch.

How the stats people come up with 5 is a complete mystery to me and undermines their complete methodology imo.
 
scaramanga said:
OPTA stats are very, very highly regarded.

You can claim that their stats are unreliable, just as you can try and tell James Dyson how to make vacuum cleaners or Marco Tencone how to design cars. You'll end up looking a fool if you do though.
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No I can claim the stats are unreliable based on my own observation.

I set you the same test as I did BE, name the supposed 5 goals we have scored from set pieces this season - with the underlying methodology for claiming them.
 
Pirate55 said:
I hope you would agree with me and BE that we have not scored any goals this season direct from set pieces.

NO goals scored from direct set pieces this season - None, nada, zero, zilch.

How the stats people come up with 5 is a complete mystery to me and undermines their complete methodology imo.
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That on it's own doesn't tell you much though - how many direct goals, on average should a good side be scoring each season? How many direct goals are our rivals currently scoring?

If we've scored none and on average other sides have scored two it's not really much of an issue as one game later we could be back on track- if others are scoring 10 goals direct from set pieces, as an example, then I'd agree that its something to worry about.

The stats people use the same methodology as they did last season when it worked in your favour and you used their numbers to support your opinion.
 
billyiddo said:
That on it's own doesn't tell you much though - how many direct goals, on average should a good side be scoring each season? How many direct goals are our rivals currently scoring?

If we've scored none and on average other sides have scored two it's not really much of an issue as one game later we could be back on track- if others are scoring 10 goals direct from set pieces, as an example, then I'd agree that its something to worry about.
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I don't think that opinion holds when @Pirate55 is cherry picking in that way. He's restricting this to only goals that are scored directly from a set piece or where the next touch is s goal.

So we could have scored 0 under his definition, but 20 from situations just after set pieces. Other teams could have scored 10 directly under his method of counting but 0 in the touches shortly after. In which case, trying to emulate those other teams would lessen our chances of scoring.
 
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