Putin & Russia

[Gutter Boy]

But I don't know what you're trying to say. I'm not arguing the "moral" case for supporting Ukraine. But morality doesn't exist in a vacuum divorced from reality. Unless we are prepared to enter into a direct armed conflict with Russia then Russia is going to continue to push Ukraine back. Initially they're likely to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk before I imagine consolidating the front line and then make a renewed push for Kherson and the other oblast I can't be bothered to look up how to spell.

Now IMO the current approach of "ooooooh morals" involving throwing tonnes of resources at the problem without a clear end game is frankly f**king idiotic. And who were the key proponents of this idiotic plan? It was Zelensky, who isn't an idiot but is clouded by emotion, it's Biden, who is barely able to string a coherent sentence together and it was Johnson who just saw the whole situation as an opportunity to live out his Winston Churchill "we'll fight them on the beaches" fantasy.

And I'll tell you where to look at where these f**king stupid plans lead to: Afghanistan. We'll fund resistance to the Taliban until basically we can't be arsed any more, then just pull the plug rapidly and let all the people we are supporting retreat chaotically and get overrun by the Taliban. Thats exactly where we are heading for in Ukraine.

What Europe and the US are now, throwing money and weapons and ammo at Ukraine while they're slowly getting pushed back is we are the little boy with our finger in the dyk.

So f**k morals, deal with reality. Let's get a coherent and realistic peace settlement now. Let's actually ask European leaders: "this is more your problem than ours, why don't you tell me what YOU are prepared to do to protect Ukraine long term, then I'll tell you what, if anything, I am prepared to do to support that."

What's the alternative to standing up to a bully? Give colonialism the green light again and let the superpowers carve up and reconquer the world? 1945 and then 1989 were supposed to mark the end of that.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Not to mention peace is a good thing. Not killing young lads is a good thing - seems lost on most.

Not turning a nation into a waste land likewise.

They'd still probably prefer that to being absorbed into Russia and then ethnically cleansed.

 

[DubSpur]

I really don't think they will.....and yes, they do have a brick tonne of soviet tanks.

They have already taken about 50% of the soviet era tanks out of storage. There are fewer and fewer that can be refurbhised. They're getting to the stage that they'll only have T-55s left which are easy pickings for the Ukraine army. So no, they don't have a brick tonne of soviet tanks.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

What's the alternative to standing up to a bully? Give colonialism the green light again and let the superpowers carve up and reconquer the world? 1945 and then 1989 were supposed to mark the end of that.

We aren't standing up to a bully. We are pretending to stand up to a bully by egging on a smaller boy getting bullied to keep fighting and occasionally throwing him a few knuckle dusters and knives and teaching him how to fight better and giving him your lunch when the bully takes his lunch money while watching him get more and more broken bones and teeth....
"Keep going Tommy, you've got him on the ropes..." *whack* "unlucky Tommy, that'll clear up in a week, don't let him get you down!"

 

[Rorschach]

They have already taken about 50% of the soviet era tanks out of storage. There are fewer and fewer that can be refurbhised. They're getting to the stage that they'll only have T-55s left which are easy pickings for the Ukraine army. So no, they don't have a brick tonne of soviet tanks.

Barrels too are becoming a problem

Russia Needs Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns.

Thanks to a batch of shells from North Korea, Russian forces in Ukraine are flush with artillery ammunition. What gunners don’t have in abundance are howitzer barrels.

www.forbes.com

 

[glasgowspur]

Yep that does seem a little contradictory - Russia is about to collapse and simultaneously reconquer the old soviet empire!

But I think what is being suggested by the war analysts is that if Russia prevails in Ukraine, they will consolidate, reconstitute their military and move on to the next country. And we don't need to imagine this is what they want to do as they say it over and over.

But the same law of logistics applies to a Russian army as it applies to any other, the longer your supply line the more difficult to maintain.
Especially true if those supply lines are through conquered hostile territory.
Russia either has the were with all to fight it or it doesn't.
I'm not convinced Russia is about to collapse and I'm even less convinced Russia is in a position to reconquer eastern Europe.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

But the same law of logistics applies to a Russian army as it applies to any other, the longer your supply line the more difficult to maintain.
Especially true if those supply lines are through conquered hostile territory.
Russia either has the were with all to fight it or it doesn't.
I'm not convinced Russia is about to collapse and I'm even less convinced Russia is in a position to reconquer eastern Europe.

Logistics have been by far the biggest problem for Russia (and Ukraine) in this war, as Ukraine is such a vast country. Pretty much why the Russian attempt to take all the eastern cities and Kiev failed in the early part of the war. You had all those vehicles on their way to Kiev just run out of fuel and sit there in a massive convoy. It's why they readjusted aim to take Ukraine down in bite-size chunks but even then the Donbas is larger than most western European countries.

 

[Mikey10]

Trump has brought more clarity to this conflict. The reason he is tinkled off at Zelensky and is attempting to publically remove the "halo" from his head is that basically:
- Zelensky is going around US and European states saying we have a moral obligation to fund Ukraine's fight against Russia.
- He points out that without Western aid they'll quickly run out of ammunition and be overrun by Russia.
- While actually I think there is a large element of truth in what he's saying, the problem with it is that we have to not only deal with morality in this situation, but REALITY.
- Trump is willing to counter the Ukrainian propoganda that they're able to counter Russia militarily with the reality: even with the huge volumes of western aid - they can't. They can only "lose more slowly".
- Therefore we have to accept in the west that Ukraine's understandable desire to keep fighting "until all pre-2014 borders are restored" is not realistic and there needs to be an end date placed on the huge economic strain on western economies of supporting Ukraine.
- Unfortunately Ukraine have attempted to dig their heals in and therefore Trump has felt that a public humiliation/reality check was necessary.

Like him or loathe him. Doesn't matter. If anyone can think of a better way of getting everyone's heads where they need to be on this issue quickly, I'd like to hear it.

It’s not going to be an agreed peace, though. It’s going to be an aggressor being given what they have taken, with no concessions at all on their part. It is the green light for a new colonialism, hence why Trump (who aims to take Canada and Greenland) is so desperate for it to go ahead.

Next, China will be into Taiwan (they were also wargaming off Australia’s coast without the Aussie’s permission this week). Putin will spend a year or two reinforcing his military, then he’ll be pushing further into Ukraine, Moldova, and probably a Baltic state or two. And I’m not at all convinced the US won’t go into Greenland.

The alternative to fighting Putin in Ukraine - or settling on terms fair to Ukraine - is a series of wars around the globe which will have every chance of escalating into a global conflict.

 

[johnola]

We aren't standing up to a bully. We are pretending to stand up to a bully by egging on a smaller boy getting bullied to keep fighting and occasionally throwing him a few knuckle dusters and knives and teaching him how to fight better and giving him your lunch when the bully takes his lunch money while watching him get more and more broken bones and teeth....
"Keep going Tommy, you've got him on the ropes..." *whack* "unlucky Tommy, that'll clear up in a week, don't let him get you down!"

Whilst you would just watch him die.

 

[Craig_J]

Those who call for Ukraine to surrender its land in return for a ceasefire are the same people who would have done the same during the Second World War

Anyone who holds that view is either a Neville Chamberlain or an Oswald Mosley.

Take your pick according to which you most identify with.

Surely any self-respecting (supposedly) patriotic Brit should have more empathy and respect for one nation fighting against an invading force… than to tell them just give the invader what they want

With that kind of logic we would have been taken over by France, Spain, Germany multiple times over the last millennia

Grow a pair and respect Ukrainian’s obligation to stand up to Russia in the same way out for grandparents - against all odds and when all hope was lost - was morally obligated to do over any one who tried to take our island.

Stop being pussys. Your meant to be British

 

[Craig_J]

We aren't standing up to a bully. We are pretending to stand up to a bully by egging on a smaller boy getting bullied to keep fighting and occasionally throwing him a few knuckle dusters and knives and teaching him how to fight better and giving him your lunch when the bully takes his lunch money while watching him get more and more broken bones and teeth....
"Keep going Tommy, you've got him on the ropes..." *whack* "unlucky Tommy, that'll clear up in a week, don't let him get you down!"

Completely ridiculous.

Tell us your solution then

Is it for Ukraine to arrange a ceasefire with Russia? When they have violated that dozens upon dozens of times? When there is no reason at all to trust anything Putim ever says?

But somehow it’s different now. Because now Trumps in charge so you get the word of two relentless liars for the price of one?

One of whom it coming to force your people to be part of its sphere of influence. The over one fleecing your war hit country for natural resources.

Couldn’t imagine two finer specimens of scum.

No way any nation CAN trust someone who lied to every world leader he ever met (the Russian mobster) alongside someone who lied 40,000 times in his 4 year presidential term.

Let alone SHOULD

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

Completely ridiculous.

Tell us your solution then

Is it for Ukraine to arrange a ceasefire with Russia? When they have violated that dozens upon dozens of times? When there is no reason at all to trust anything Putim ever says?

But somehow it’s different now. Because now Trumps in charge so you get the word of two relentless liars for the price of one?

One of whom it coming to force your people to be part of its sphere of influence. The over one fleecing your war hit country for natural resources.

Couldn’t imagine two finer specimens of scum.

No way any nation CAN trust someone who lied to every world leader he ever met (the Russian mobster) alongside someone who lied 40,000 times in his 4 year presidential term.

Let alone SHOULD

I've told you the solution. And it is the only solution. It is agreeing a cease fire. Unfortunately it will be a cease fire largely on Russia's terms. Why? Because as I've said, unless we are prepared to enter into direct military combat with Russia,, it has been clear now for 3 years now that Ukraine does not have the ability to do anything other than slowly concede ground even with huge economic and military assistance from us. Assistance that isn't sustainable. It's reality.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

Those who call for Ukraine to surrender its land in return for a ceasefire are the same people who would have done the same during the Second World War

Anyone who holds that view is either a Neville Chamberlain or an Oswald Mosley.

Take your pick according to which you most identify with.

Surely any self-respecting (supposedly) patriotic Brit should have more empathy and respect for one nation fighting against an invading force… than to tell them just give the invader what they want

With that kind of logic we would have been taken over by France, Spain, Germany multiple times over the last millennia

Grow a pair and respect Ukrainian’s obligation to stand up to Russia in the same way out for grandparents - against all odds and when all hope was lost - was morally obligated to do over any one who tried to take our island.

Stop being pussys. Your meant to be British

Ukraine can do what they want. But.getting endless western assistance while being slowly ground down on the battlefield isn't going anyone any favours. It's time to pull the plug. If Ukraine don't want to do s deal and keep fighting they can do. The thing is, they can't keep fighting without US assistance.

 

[Mikey10]

I've told you the solution. And it is the only solution. It is agreeing a cease fire. Unfortunately it will be a cease fire largely on Russia's terms. Why? Because as I've said, unless we are prepared to enter into direct military combat with Russia,, it has been clear now for 3 years now that Ukraine does not have the ability to do anything other than slowly concede ground even with huge economic and military assistance from us. Assistance that isn't sustainable. It's reality.

We can enter into direct military conflict with Russia in Ukraine, while they are militarily weak, or we can wait a couple of years and it will happen in Lithuania, Latvia or Finland. I hate to break it to you, but it’s now highly unlikely it’s not going to happen - unless Russia is shown that they don’t have the conventional forces with which to win a war against Europe. They’re already at war with us in many other ways (e.g. poisoning with nuclear grade weapons on our streets; attacking our communication systems; building up their network of spies in Britain; influencing our elections).

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

We can enter into direct military conflict with Russia in Ukraine, while they are militarily weak, or we can wait a couple of years and it will happen in Lithuania, Latvia or Finland. I hate to break it to you, but it’s now highly unlikely it’s not going to happen - unless Russia is shown that they don’t have the conventional forces with which to win a war against Europe. They’re already at war with us in many other ways.

I personally think you have to be a bit unhinged to want to us to enter into direct military conflict with Russia. I've got 3 young children. Absolutely no way would I be supportive of that.

 

[Mikey10]

I personally think you have to be a bit unhinged to want to us to enter into direct military conflict with Russia. I've got 3 young children. Absolutely no way would I be supportive of that.

Who wants to? You keep talking about reality. I edited my post above to highlight that they are ALREADY at war with us - that is the reality. They are the aggressors and they will see weakness on Europe’s part as carte blanche to roll westwards.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

Who wants to? You keep talking about reality. I edited my post above to highlight that they are ALREADY at war with us - that is the reality. They are the aggressors and they will see weakness on Europe’s part as carte blanche to roll westwards.

They are not already at war with us. And even if we did enter into war with them, we'd exhaust our ammo and munition reserves within a few weeks. We have degraded our military by so much.

 

[SpurMeUp]

We aren't standing up to a bully. We are pretending to stand up to a bully by egging on a smaller boy getting bullied to keep fighting and occasionally throwing him a few knuckle dusters and knives and teaching him how to fight better and giving him your lunch when the bully takes his lunch money while watching him get more and more broken bones and teeth....
"Keep going Tommy, you've got him on the ropes..." *whack* "unlucky Tommy, that'll clear up in a week, don't let him get you down!"

And the kid getting bullied used to be the bullies close friend until we came along and pulled them away from their friendship. The role the US has played manipulating Ukraine away from Russia is ignored. Conflicts don’t erupt out of nowhere there are two decades of history that are largely being ignored. And you can argue we’re using Ukraine to fight americas proxy war. Is Trump so mad withdrawing from this proxy war? Saying to Europe: if you want to take this mess on and fund the destruction be my guest.

As for Ukraines appetite to have its young conscripted and have its nation flattened, it is not as clear as we think. Easy for us to presume that Ukrainians want to keep fighting but it’s more complex and what everyone should want is peace.

 

[Craig_J]

I've told you the solution. And it is the only solution. It is agreeing a cease fire. Unfortunately it will be a cease fire largely on Russia's terms. Why? Because as I've said, unless we are prepared to enter into direct military combat with Russia,, it has been clear now for 3 years now that Ukraine does not have the ability to do anything other than slowly concede ground even with huge economic and military assistance from us. Assistance that isn't sustainable. It's reality.

Ukraine has barely conceded anything in a long while go. And we will see what happens with Kursk as they may lost it but they have taken a small amount of Russian territory

I feel the alternative is self explanatory.

Russia has been putting the works on in democratic elections across many near by nations (Romania, Poland, Moldova…. I am sure countless other examples too. But do not pretend to know the extensive list)

They won’t stop where they are. They will settle for what territory they have “until next time”. Any break on their own terms is enabling them to reman, rearm and prepare for the next push.

 

[Craig_J]

I personally think you have to be a bit unhinged to want to us to enter into direct military conflict with Russia. I've got 3 young children. Absolutely no way would I be supportive of that.

How young are your children?

I myself am 30.

Hypothetically say I live another 50 years (in reality I smoke so much I think that’s over ambitious!) .

I don’t want this conflict to be kicked to the curb for a handful of years then restarted again. It it very clear Russia has imperialist ambitions and wants back its former territories.

I don’t want them to come back in 2027 causing havoc - knowing they have got 20% of the job done already

They took crimea. No one did anything. No one questioned anything. Let them have it

Guess what? They came back for more! More! More!

5 years from now. More more fudging more!

Literally letting them take whatever they want and allowing them to cash out when ever they want - and then re enter the game in a stronger position. How unbelievably shortsighted and naive

They have complete undisputed say into
When they do and don’t start taking place?!

GHod save your children. If that’s your attitude I think you’d serve them well to teach them Russian so they can make the most of things in the 2050s