Politics, politics, politics

[the dza]

Also, just as a quick FYI -- the fieldwork for the Yougov poll was done 6-7th January, showing a 6 point Tory lead. The fieldwork for the Survation poll was done 9-10th January, showing a 3 point Labour lead. So it's interesting that the Times would do an article a week later presenting the polling info as the latest. I wonder why they took so long to produce the article.

In any case, it's not worth getting excited about polling at the moment imo. I think Labour have lost a little 'remain' support but not all that much. The leave vote is sticking with the Tories for now. We need some movement on Brexit one way or another, and it seems there is quite a lot to come

 

[the dza]

You think the Brexit divide will be over any time soon? I think it will last years after Brexit is done/not done.

Agree. But I don't think we'll need a complete resolution to see movement in the Brexit divide though, we just need to be further along. Right now, it seems we are coming to the end of the beginning. A lot can happen from here; remainers could get tinkled off en masse with Labour and choose to vote Lib Dem. Hardcore leavers could decide they have been betrayed and start a UKIP revival. Or any number of things.

 

[the dza]

You think Labour have that long? They want an election ASAP, and should have been positioning themselves as saviours by now.

Whether you agree with the strategy or not, the tactics from Labour appear to have been to allow the government to make a mess of Brexit whilst holding them to account with their own words (the words of David Davis etc.) Labour are (imo) in a position to pivot come a general election. They could for example, say that they will attempt to renegotiate Brexit and then put their deal to a people's vote. But they don't have to make a firm commitment to this until a general election is on imo, why would an opposition give away a tactical advantage? Labour want to win power and implement their ideas.

For now, there's no clear pivot from Labour and no real polling movement as a result. All imo, coz what the phuck do I know at the end of the day?!

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Also, just as a quick FYI -- the fieldwork for the Yougov poll was done 6-7th January, showing a 6 point Tory lead. The fieldwork for the Survation poll was done 9-10th January, showing a 3 point Labour lead. So it's interesting that the Times would do an article a week later presenting the polling info as the latest. I wonder why they took so long to produce the article.

In any case, it's not worth getting excited about polling at the moment imo. I think Labour have lost a little 'remain' support but not all that much. The leave vote is sticking with the Tories for now. We need some movement on Brexit one way or another, and it seems there is quite a lot to come

Im not getting excited.

Just find it notable that Labour is so passive.

They should be positioning themselves as the clear and obvious government/choice/solution and instead are nip and tuck with the incumbent clusterfudge.

Cant help feeling theres something wrong with that.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Whether you agree with the strategy or not, the tactics from Labour appear to have been to allow the government to make a mess of Brexit whilst holding them to account with their own words (the words of David Davis etc.) Labour are (imo) in a position to pivot come a general election. They could for example, say that they will attempt to renegotiate Brexit and then put their deal to a people's vote. But they don't have to make a firm commitment to this until a general election is on imo, why would an opposition give away a tactical advantage? Labour want to win power and implement their ideas.

These things tickle me really.

You think any of it would come as a surprise to the Tories? Of course not. So, what tactical advantage?

I dont agree with their policy of inaction, I think they should be better than that, but also - if I were a Labour supporter Id be wondering why the hell they are only nip and tuck with the Tories.

It begs the question, considering the utter shambles of this government, what do they have to do to dip below Labour in a meaningful way?

I mean, seriously. The Monster Raving Loony party would be polling better if they were in opposition!

For now, there's no clear pivot from Labour and no real polling movement as a result. All imo, coz what the phuck do I know at the end of the day?!

About the same as me I would imagine

 

[the dza]

Im not getting excited.

Just find it notable that Labour is so passive.

They should be positioning themselves as the clear and obvious government/choice/solution and instead are nip and tuck with the incumbent clusterfudge.

Cant help feeling theres something wrong with that.

In normal times, I agree that there would be. But Brexit has phucked the political landscape for the moment.

So let's say Blair was leader of Labour right now. IMO, he'd have the same constituency of voters that Corbyn has, somewhere around 40% of the electorate. Firm leave voters would be even more against him because he would be all for ignoring the referendum result. Firm remain voters would fully support him, likewise.

But a Blair would not, imo, suddenly take Labour from around 40% in the polls (which is roughly where they are, give or take 3% margin of error) to what...50%? There is nowhere for those votes to come from right now, because of Brexit (or the Brexit vote divide).

Now, if we crashed out with no-deal and it was as bad as they say, a Blair type would sweep in of course, being staunchly pro-EU. But he'd still have to wait for that movement re. Brexit. That's the bottom line imo, there has to be more progression with Brexit (positive or negative) to get real movement in the polls.

 

[the dza]

These things tickle me really.

You think any of it would come as a surprise to the Tories? Of course not. So, what tactical advantage?

I dont agree with their policy of inaction, I think they should be better than that, but also - if I were a Labour supporter Id be wondering why the hell they are only nip and tuck with the Tories.

It begs the question, considering the utter shambles of this government, what do they have to do to dip below Labour in a meaningful way?

I mean, seriously. The Monster Raving Loony party would be polling better if they were in opposition!



About the same as me I would imagine

I don't mean an element of surprise. I mean firmly committing to something that The Tories could use to take the heat off of themselves. So say Labour came out for a 'People's vote' 2 years ago. That would have given May 2 years to say "Labour are thwarting the will of the people!" to take the attention away from her own troubles. There's no real advantage, from a Labour perspective, to commit to anything too early. Right now, they have kept their options open.

Again, just my opinion. This is all very hard to call!

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I don't mean an element of surprise. I mean firmly committing to something that The Tories could use to take the heat off of themselves. So say Labour came out for a 'People's vote' 2 years ago. That would have given May 2 years to say "Labour are thwarting the will of the people!" to take the attention away from her own troubles. There's no real advantage, from a Labour perspective, to commit to anything too early. Right now, they have kept their options open.

Again, just my opinion. This is all very hard to call!

May has absolutely, positively, denied the chances of a peoples vote.

Corbyn would gain massive popularity in pushing for it.

I dont see it as a gimmick the Tories will steal. With May there they have boxed themselves into only one option.

Except - Corbyn doesnt want it, does he? Even if Labour does. And this where Ill end up digressing into what a clam I think he is so Id be better off stopping there.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

In normal times, I agree that there would be. But Brexit has phucked the political landscape for the moment.

So let's say Blair was leader of Labour right now. IMO, he'd have the same constituency of voters that Corbyn has, somewhere around 40% of the electorate. Firm leave voters would be even more against him because he would be all for ignoring the referendum result. Firm remain voters would fully support him, likewise.

But a Blair would not, imo, suddenly take Labour from around 40% in the polls (which is roughly where they are, give or take 3% margin of error) to what...50%? There is nowhere for those votes to come from right now, because of Brexit (or the Brexit vote divide).

Now, if we crashed out with no-deal and it was as bad as they say, a Blair type would sweep in of course, being staunchly pro-EU. But he'd still have to wait for that movement re. Brexit. That's the bottom line imo, there has to be more progression with Brexit (positive or negative) to get real movement in the polls.

I think people are sick of Brexit. Sick of the unknown. Im pretty sure a second vote would result in remain. Im not sure I see the divide as you do.

I think its more within the parties, than the populace.

If Corbyn offered a solution now to put it all to bed one way or another I think he would get a lot of support.

Again, he hasnt really, has he.

Labour just wait.

 

[the dza]

May has absolutely, positively, denied the chances of a peoples vote.

Corbyn would gain massive popularity in pushing for it.

I dont see it as a gimmick the Tories will steal. With May there they have boxed themselves into only one option.

Except - Corbyn doesnt want it, does he? Even if Labour does. And this where Ill end up digressing into what a clam I think he is so Id be better off stopping there.

Possibly -- though the polling I have seen online on this doesn't show it to be cut and dried. It's very popular amongst Labour members, that's for certain. And that's why it's a firm possibility, due to the motion passed at the last Labour Party Conference. Timing will/would be important imo.

I still don't discount the possibility of Parliament rallying around a Norway+ option and all sides just saying "phuck it, get it over with." I would personally prefer that to a 2nd referendum, if only to move forward with -- what I think is -- a pretty safe option.

 

[the dza]

I reckon May's deal will get soundly beaten tonight, but she will just go back again with it. She will try and scare Tory MPs into voting for it by running down the clock to no-deal. I don't think that will work either, but I think it's what she will try.

 

[r-u-s-x]

May has absolutely, positively, denied the chances of a peoples vote.

Corbyn would gain massive popularity in pushing for it.

Apparently pushing a second referendum would be good for constituencies where they already have a majority but bad for key marginals. i.e. it would lead to more votes overall but could very well lead to less seats in a GE.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Possibly -- though the polling I have seen online on this doesn't show it to be cut and dried. It's very popular amongst Labour members, that's for certain. And that's why it's a firm possibility, due to the motion passed at the last Labour Party Conference. Timing will/would be important imo.

I still don't discount the possibility of Parliament rallying around a Norway+ option and all sides just saying "phuck it, get it over with." I would personally prefer that to a 2nd referendum, if only to move forward with -- what I think is -- a pretty safe option.

Anecdotal, of course, but Im seeing more and more people just fed up with all the fuss and wanting it over so life can get back to normal.

Be that in or out, they just want resolution.

If someone actually offered a clear path/option then I think that person would gain a lot of traction.

Instead, as I say, he has just been passive. I find it hard to imagine he will suddenly leap into action having watched the entire train wreck and everyone just gets on board.

I reckon May's deal will get soundly beaten tonight, but she will just go back again with it. She will try and scare Tory MPs into voting for it by running down the clock to no-deal. I don't think that will work either, but I think it's what she will try.

Thats been the plan all along, hasnt it?

Will parliament have the balls to say "its still no" or will they bottle it? Thats the only real question.

Personally Im hoping the former, I really want to see a shake up.

Apparently pushing a second referendum would be good for constituencies where they already have a majority but bad for key marginals. i.e. it would lead to more votes overall but could very well lead to less seats in a GE.

Where is this from?

I dont know that they can know these things, really. Polls were out on the last couple of elections werent they? Which were both relatively tight.

In Labours shoes (as Im obviously an expert!) Id be looking to win as much of the populace as I could right now.

If an election comes its coming quickly, and Id want there to be standing good will to take me into it.

 

[the dza]

Apparently pushing a second referendum would be good for constituencies where they already have a majority but bad for key marginals. i.e. it would lead to more votes overall but could very well lead to less seats in a GE.

Yeah, iirc, a lot of the marginals are leave constituencies, which is another reason Labour have had to tread carefully/be ambiguous/passive etc.

Brexit is very tricky for both main parties, that's for sure.

 

[monkeybarry]

I would have thought the usual "grass is greener" thinking to reflect in the polls, especially given the current turmoil.

That Labour arent seen as any better than the Tories is pretty damning IMHO.




Of course they need.

They are pushing for an election they think they can win - they should be positioning themselves as the obvious choice.

That the polls effectively say "meh" between them and the Conservatives is a big deal, IMO.

They should be the "good guys" by this point, primed to come and save the day. Instead it seems they are much of a muchness.

Ah, but good guy and good ideas = Tories adopt them and take away any justification for voting against the deal, thus keeping the Tories in power.
Labour need to wait until the vote goes against and then build up a public appetite for a GE. Drip feed a few nice policies to get the GE in place, then show their full hand.
(Whether that actually have anything more than two pair in that hand is a big question mark! But tactically I think they are right to play the waiting game)

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Ah, but good guy and good ideas = Tories adopt them and take away any justification for voting against the deal, thus keeping the Tories in power.
Labour need to wait until the vote goes against and then build up a public appetite for a GE. Drip feed a few nice policies to get the GE in place, then show their full hand.
(Whether that actually have anything more than two pair in that hand is a big question mark! But tactically I think they are right to play the waiting game)

I see the logic, I just dont agree.

When things happen, theyll happen quickly. Labour could be making ground, and instead they are standing still.

Which seems especially foolish when the Tories are clearly on a singular course. They arent in the game of stealing policy at this point, they are bloody minded in heading to Mays deal and/or self destruction.

Labour could be offering all the solution in the world and the Tories wouldnt bite at this time.

But the people would see it. Digest it. Take it on board - and start so see Labour in a favourable light.

Except, right now they dont, do they?

 

[monkeybarry]

I think people just see labour as neutral.
Does anyone really know what they currently stand for?
So they are either holding it back or just abject. I suspect they will just come out with lots of policy the opposite of the Tories rather than a cohesive plan.
If we had a GE called by the end of next week (very plausible) - it would a time when we need a good turn out, but would be genuinely clueless as to the positions of the parties!!

 

[Gutter Boy]

I think people just see labour as neutral.
Does anyone really know what they currently stand for?
So they are either holding it back or just abject. I suspect they will just come out with lots of policy the opposite of the Tories rather than a cohesive plan.
If we had a GE called by the end of next week (very plausible) - it would a time when we need a good turn out, but would be genuinely clueless as to the positions of the parties!!

The problem Labour have is:

Front bench - leave
Back benches - remain
Members - remain
Voters - leave

That leaves them with no option but ambiguity

 

[monkeybarry]

And they slal have a front bench of back benchers and a back bench of front benchers

 

[Gutter Boy]

Apparently pushing a second referendum would be good for constituencies where they already have a majority but bad for key marginals. i.e. it would lead to more votes overall but could very well lead to less seats in a GE.

There are 416 leave constituencies vs 234 remain ones. Basically because Scotland and London are massively remain, while the rest of the country is smaller leave majorities