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Politics, politics, politics

Prime Minister Theresa May is making a last-ditch attempt to persuade MPs to back her Brexit deal as Tuesday's key Commons vote looms closer.

She will warn that trust in politics will suffer "catastrophic harm" if the referendum result is not implemented.

The EU has issued fresh assurances over the deal's impact on Northern Ireland.

In a letter to Mrs May, it said it did not want the customs backstop to take effect and, if it did, it would only be for "the shortest possible period".

It also promised to consider alternative ways of preventing the need for physical checks on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, such as "facilitative arrangements or technologies".

Jeremy Corbyn has said Labour will vote against the deal and would start moves to trigger a general election if it is voted down.

He told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "We will table a motion of no confidence in the government at a time of our choosing, but it's going to be soon, don't worry about it."

Mrs May's speech comes amid reports MPs plan to take control of Brexit if her deal is defeated.

About 100 Conservative MPs, and the Democratic Unionist Party's 10 MPs, are currently expected to join Labour and the other opposition parties in voting against the deal.

Speaking to factory workers, Mrs May will say on Monday: "As we have seen over the last few weeks, there are some in Westminster who would wish to delay or even stop Brexit and who will use every device available to them to do so."

She is to add that she now believes MPs blocking Brexit is more likely than a no-deal scenario.

Mrs May will say: "I ask MPs to consider the consequences of their actions on the faith of the British people in our democracy.

"Imagine if an anti-devolution House of Commons had said to the people of Scotland or Wales that despite voting in favour of a devolved legislature, Parliament knew better and would overrule them. Or else force them to vote again.

"What if we found ourselves in a situation where Parliament tried to take the UK out of the EU in opposition to a remain vote?

"People's faith in the democratic process and their politicians would suffer catastrophic harm. We all have a duty to implement the result of the referendum."

She is to give the example of the Welsh devolution referendum in 1997, when people voted by a margin of 0.3% to create the Welsh Assembly, arguing: "That result was accepted by both sides and the popular legitimacy of that institution has never seriously been questioned."

However, records show Mrs May did in fact herself vote against the establishment of the Welsh Assembly after that referendum - while the 2005 Conservative manifesto pledged to offer the Welsh people a "referendum on whether to keep the Assembly in its current form, increase its powers or abolish it".

In her speech on Monday, Mrs May will add: "Parliament understood this fact when it voted overwhelmingly to trigger Article 50. And both major parties did so too when they stood on election manifestos in 2017 that pledged to honour the result of the referendum."


What happens next?
Here is what is likely to happen:

  • Monday - Day four of MPs' Brexit debate, with the PM set to make a statement to the Commons setting out reassurances from the EU over the Irish backstop
  • Tuesday - Day five of debate followed by "meaningful vote" on the PM's deal. MPs will also get to vote on amendments that could reshape the deal. If the deal is rejected Theresa May will get three working days to come up with a "plan B"
  • Wednesday - Mrs May is likely to head to Brussels to try to get further concessions from the EU
  • Monday 21 January - Expected Commons vote on "Plan B"
The UK will leave the EU on Friday, 29 March, unless MPs vote to delay or cancel Brexit.

What are others saying?
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable - who opposes Brexit - said: "The increasingly desperate language from the prime minister more than suggests a great deal of panic.

"But she cannot be allowed to pull the wool over the public's eyes. A chaotic no-deal Brexit is a choice and it is in the gift of the government to prevent it."

He argued that the best way forward was to have another referendum, including the option to remain in the EU.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Labour MP Chuka Umunna, who is also campaigning for another referendum, said Mrs May's deal would do "great harm to our economy".

Labour's John Mann told Sky News there had to be a negotiated exit from the EU and "at some stage" he would back a deal, adding "it may well be tomorrow".
 
What has the UK been offered on Northern Ireland?
The so-called Irish backstop will see the UK and EU share a single customs territory until they settle their future relationship or come up with another solution to stop a hard border.

Many Tory MPs, as well as the Democratic Unionists are adamantly opposed it.

The EU has given fresh written assurances about how the backstop might be triggered and how long it would last, assurances which it says have "legal value".

The key points, in a letter from Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, to the PM are:

  • The backstop will not affect or supersede the provisions of the Good Friday or Belfast Agreement of 10 April 1998 in any way whatsoever
  • The backstop will not extend regulatory alignment with European Union law in Northern Ireland beyond what is strictly necessary to avoid a hard border
"Were the backstop to enter into force in whole or in part, it is intended to apply only temporarily, unless and until it is superseded by a subsequent agreement," they said.

"The Commission is committed to providing the necessary political impetus and resources to help achieving the objective of making this period as short as possible," it said.

But Conservative former work and pensions secretary Esther McVey said "warm words" from the EU that customs arrangements designed to prevent the return of physical checks on the Irish border - known as the backstop - would be temporary would not be enough to convince her to support the deal.

She told Sky News that the UK was set to remain in some kind of customs union, which she said would be a breach of the 2017 Conservative election manifesto.

"The default position is going into the backstop," she said. "If the UK and the EU don't want it, let's take it out."

What about reports of MPs planning to take over Brexit?
The UK will leave the EU on 29 March unless there is a new act of Parliament preventing that.

Because the government controls the timetable for Commons business, it was assumed that this would not be possible.

But three senior Conservative backbenchers are to publish a bill on Monday night that would allow MPs to frame a "compromise" Brexit deal if Theresa May fails to come up with a plan B, Tory Nick Boles has revealed.

Mr Boles said he, Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan were behind the "European Union Withdrawal Number 2 Bill", which would see the Liaison Committee - made up of the chairmen and chairwomen of all the Commons select committees - take a key role if the PM's Withdrawal Agreement is rejected by Parliament.

Mr Boles said all three planned to vote for the PM's deal, but would act if it failed.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "This bill would do the following: it would give the Government three more weeks to get a compromise deal, a plan B, through Parliament so that we are leaving the EU on time on March 29 with a deal.

"If that failed, it would... give the Liaison Committee the responsibility to try and come up with its own compromise deal, which would have to go back to the House for a vote.

"If the House passed that compromise deal, then the Government would be legally required to implement whatever it was that they had."

Downing Street has said it is "extremely concerned" about the plot, which it says could potentially overturn centuries of Parliamentary precedent.

Are more Tory backbenchers coming round to the deal?
Four Conservative Brexiteer MPs who have been critics of the withdrawal agreement have now said they will support the government in the vote on Tuesday.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, MP for the Cotswolds, said he still had "deep misgivings" about many aspects of Mrs May's deal.

But he said: "The events of last week have clearly demonstrated that the Speaker and MPs who wish to remain in the EU will stop at nothing to prevent that happening."

Former Public Accounts Committee chairman Sir Edward Leigh said Brexit-supporting MPs were "playing with fire" if they voted down the deal.

Andrew Murrison, a former minister, and Caroline Johnson, MP for Sleaford and North Hykeham, also said they were backing the government despite reservations.

Mr Murrison is tabling an amendment to the Brexit motion to create a "sunset clause" to prevent the backstop extending beyond the end of 2022.

What are the chances of another referendum on leaving the EU?
A cross-party group of anti-Brexit politicians have published proposed legislation to bring about a second referendum on leaving the EU.

The draft Bill recommends that the public be asked whether they want to remain in the EU or leave under the prime minister's deal.

The MPs behind the draft legislation point out that Article 50 - the two-year process by which an EU member leaves the bloc - would have to be extended in order for another poll to take place, meaning the UK would remain a member beyond 29 March.

The legislation could be introduced through the House of Lords under plans being considered by the group.
 
Brexit: What's next if MPs reject May's deal?

Laura KuenssbergPolitical editor@bbclaurak

I know that, right here, I've been writing about, and we've been discussing, our prime minister's and politicians' Brexit choices for more than two-and-a-half years.

And, yes indeed, there have been many, many times we have reported it is a crunch moment, a crucial day, or a vital moment.

And each mini-drama, each bizarre twist, each day where we have moved further from anything like politics-as-usual, has had meaning.

That's true of the prime minister's speech in Florence, the meltingly hot cabinet day out at Chequers, Boris Johnson stalking out of the cabinet, or indeed, the EU saying "non, non, non" at Salzburg, or Gina Miller's Supreme Court appeal, where on Parliament's behalf - on behalf of all of us in a sense - she won a bigger say over Brexit for MPs.

Barring an almost incredible-to-imagine second delay to the vote, Tuesday is when MPs get the chance to express that wish - to say yes or no to the deal that's on the table.

The weird thing about it is that unless, again, something almost impossible-to-ponder happens, we know they are, in large numbers, going to say no.

Parliament taking control
There is precious little jeopardy in saying that, although be sceptical of any predictions about the size of the defeat.

MPs don't even trust each other on rebellions, let alone always stick to what they may brag about before.

If you take a clear "no" vote as read then, there is a possibility that moves afoot to stop us leaving without a deal, will be taken by parliamentarians who have been studying the rule books very closely.

In recent months amid the cacophony, Parliament has steadily been taking more and more control of the Brexit process, if not ownership of the problems.

And it's likely this week there will be another attempt, maybe even before the vote, to remove the risk that we can leave without a deal. Of course it would need a majority of MPs' support (always, always, easier said than done).

But remember even if they do, the immediate question will be: for what? At the moment there is no majority in Parliament for any plan that has actually been put on the table.

And some cabinet ministers believe the attempt to snarl up the process in that way could be blocked in any case.

If that's so, well, several cabinet ministers from different parts of the Tory party, have told me they expect the prime minister will have at least another attempt to get her deal, or something rather like it, through Parliament.

But despite her reputation for secrecy, this week she will have to make something clear.

Will she shift to what many in Parliament want, a closer relationship with the EU, perhaps moving across to some kind of customs union?

Or will she ramp up preparations for no-deal, trying (which many just don't believe) to show that she really would be willing to walk away with no deal, in the hope that pressure would persuade the EU to crack and make it plain she is not for turning?

Decisions can't wait
That is likely to be the call she'll have to make. One cabinet minister told me: "This week it distils into what people truly think - between those who are really scared of leaving without a deal, and those who are really scared of not leaving."

Even after all this time, the Tories, and this Brexit prime minister, are still faced with the same fundamental choice there always has been - take the risk of going it alone with a dramatic break from the EU, with all the turmoil that might go alongside it.

Or cleave to a closer relationship with the EU, some kind of customs union by another name, that could tear the Tory party apart.

Delay is a tactic that has been used by Theresa May with great effect, arguably keeping her - even if unhappily - in office.

Every route that she might choose has risks, perhaps none of the choices are tempting for Number 10.

But on Tuesday night votes will actually be counted - the numbers, and decisions after they come, just won't wait much longer.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Mrs May will say: "I ask MPs to consider the consequences of their actions on the faith of the British people in our democracy.

"Imagine if an anti-devolution House of Commons had said to the people of Scotland or Wales that despite voting in favour of a devolved legislature, Parliament knew better and would overrule them. Or else force them to vote again.
Click to expand...

This is exactly what the 2005 Conservatives, including May, were going to do to the Welsh. She had no qualms then about ignoring tight referendum results yet now ......
 
I love that if the result doesn't come out the way she wants it we have three days to get Plan B. And if that isn't sufficient, we then get to vote on whether to keep it or not.
We were warned withdrawal wasn't easily.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1084786649014460416

Considering the absolute shambles the Conservatives are, what does this say for Labour?!
Click to expand...

Not a lot has really changed, we are in Brexit stasis. Yougov seems to have Tories ahead in their polls. Other polls have Labour ahead, other polls have it level.

Until there is a bit more movement on Brexit, I don't expect there to be much change in the polls beyond a bit of churn.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1083870608100917248

I doubt there has been a 9 point swing in a few days. The truth is somewhere in the middle imo. I think there a huge chunk of leave voters who are no fans of the Tory government, but 'trust' them to deliver a Brexit that they want. Likewise remainers and Labour. The country is pretty well split between the two main parties, whereas in the past, the Lib Dems would have had a good chunk of the vote.
 
Grays_1890 said:
Labour must be in a utter shambles if they can't take advantage of May and all this mess
Click to expand...

Personally, I hope May sees a few good yougov polls and then calls an election. The Tories have no positive change to offer the electorate, all they have now is "we will deliver Brexit." And that is enough for a lot of people to give them their vote.

Yet there is only 1 party calling for an election right now, and it's not The Tories...
 
Grays_1890 said:
Labour must be in a utter shambles if they can't take advantage of May and all this mess
Click to expand...
They have no need right now.
Get tomorrow's vote out of the way and then they can position themselves for a GE or second ref. (Obv they will push for a GE. But if it's second ref I suspect they'll push for a "we can do this properly" angle).
 
the dza said:
Not a lot has really changed, we are in Brexit stasis. Yougov seems to have Tories ahead in their polls. Other polls have Labour ahead, other polls have it level.

Until there is a bit more movement on Brexit, I don't expect there to be much change in the polls beyond a bit of churn.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1083870608100917248

I doubt there has been a 9 point swing in a few days. The truth is somewhere in the middle imo. I think there a huge chunk of leave voters who are no fans of the Tory government, but 'trust' them to deliver a Brexit that they want. Likewise remainers and Labour. The country is pretty well split between the two main parties, whereas in the past, the Lib Dems would have had a good chunk of the vote.
Click to expand...

I would have thought the usual "grass is greener" thinking to reflect in the polls, especially given the current turmoil.

That Labour arent seen as any better than the Tories is pretty damning IMHO.


monkeybarry said:
They have no need right now.
Get tomorrow's vote out of the way and then they can position themselves for a GE or second ref. (Obv they will push for a GE. But if it's second ref I suspect they'll push for a "we can do this properly" angle).
Click to expand...

Of course they need.

They are pushing for an election they think they can win - they should be positioning themselves as the obvious choice.

That the polls effectively say "meh" between them and the Conservatives is a big deal, IMO.

They should be the "good guys" by this point, primed to come and save the day. Instead it seems they are much of a muchness.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
I would have thought the usual "grass is greener" thinking to reflect in the polls, especially given the current turmoil.

That Labour arent seen as any better than the Tories is pretty damning IMHO.




Of course they need.

They are pushing for an election they think they can win - they should be positioning themselves as the obvious choice.

That the polls effectively say "meh" between them and the Conservatives is a big deal, IMO.

They should be the "good guys" by this point, primed to come and save the day. Instead it seems they are much of a muchness.
Click to expand...

That would all be true if there were no Brexit divide. But there clearly is and until Brexit is at least somewhat decided, I don't think we will see a big separation in the polls. Let's see what happens in the coming months.
 
the dza said:
That would all be true if there were no Brexit divide. But there clearly is and until Brexit is at least somewhat decided, I don't think we will see a big separation in the polls. Let's see what happens in the coming months.
Click to expand...
You think the Brexit divide will be over any time soon? I think it will last years after Brexit is done/not done.
 
the dza said:
That would all be true if there were no Brexit divide. But there clearly is and until Brexit is at least somewhat decided, I don't think we will see a big separation in the polls. Let's see what happens in the coming months.
Click to expand...

You think Labour have that long? They want an election ASAP, and should have been positioning themselves as saviours by now.
 
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