Politics, politics, politics

[the dza]

I have not, but your post comes as no surprise.

As I understand it, BINO is basically a Norway type deal whereby we get to trade, pay into the budget, but have no say in anything.

That being the case it would be a fudging departed move to make.

I sort of agree, but there must be some pluses or you'd think the Norwegians (as in their populace) would be wanting to join the EU.

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

I have not, but your post comes as no surprise.

As I understand it, BINO is basically a Norway type deal whereby we get to trade, pay into the budget, but have no say in anything.

That being the case it would be a fudging departed move to make.

The argument is that the EFTA court would end up being quite an important arbitrator, and that most discussions about trade, and particularly in financial services, would end up happening under EEA auspices. So the trade union would strengthen, and political/monetary union would be a less attractive option for many of the EU27.

It's not an argument I'd champion myself, but it's not an idiotic one.

 

[DTA]

A isnt status quo, is it.

And, IMO, would be a lot less favourable to many a remainer than one might expect.

Its an oddity of this debate. Remainers talk about the EU in glowing terms, but face them with the prospect being "more in" their favour for it will wane IMO.




IMHO "out" needs to be honoured. The referendum was offered, a decision was made. Thats how democracy works, and so it has to be followed through.

Its not even a brexit thing, its the principle of it.

I could kind of agree with that or at least respect that opinion (even though I wouldn't like it). IF (in no particular order):

1) vote leave didn't overspend
2) the Russians weren't involved
3) a binary choice wasnt ludicrous for such a complex far reaching decision.
4) the public were better informed of what the EU actually is/does.
5) vote leave didn't use lies (big red buss) fear of Turkey joking the EU etc etc.
6) the involvement of the Alt right and state sponsored social media manipulation
7) Cambridge analytica using military grade propaganda tools to influence the vote.

Etc etc.

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

I don't like PR. It makes me accidentally vote for facists.

I won't ever vote Tory, Labour or Lib Dem, so once I've voted for my candidate, I just end up filling up the other preferences with the loonies. But sometimes the facists have unsuspecting party names and they get a tick along with the Pirate Party and Bus Pass Elvis Party

Ah. I'm beginning to wonder whether you might be something of an outlier, politically speaking. Who is the preferred candidate? Kippers? Green? Best of the loonies?

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

I could kind of agree with that or at least respect that opinion (even though I wouldn't like it). IF (in no particular order):

1) vote leave didn't overspend
2) the Russians weren't involved
3) a binary choice wasnt ludicrous for such a complex far reaching decision.
4) the public were better informed of what the EU actually is/does.
5) vote leave didn't use lies (big red buss) fear of Turkey joking the EU etc etc.
6) the involvement of the Alt right and state sponsored social media manipulation
7) Cambridge analytica using military grade propaganda tools to influence the vote.

Etc etc.

And if it hadn't been such a close result, despite all those things.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I sort of agree, but there must be some pluses or you'd think the Norwegians (as in their populace) would be wanting to join the EU.

I think its to do with the nature of their trade, IE fishing and natural resources - full EU membership would run counter to their economic policies around it (I think!).

On which basis it wouldnt suit us.

The argument is that the EFTA court would end up being quite an important arbitrator, and that most discussions about trade, and particularly in financial services, would end up happening under EEA auspices. So the trade union would strengthen, and political/monetary union would be a less attractive option for many of the EU27.

It's not an argument I'd champion myself, but it's not an idiotic one.

Interesting, something to look into.

I could kind of agree with that or at least respect that opinion (even though I wouldn't like it). IF (in no particular order):

1) vote leave didn't overspend
2) the Russians weren't involved
3) a binary choice wasnt ludicrous for such a complex far reaching decision.
4) the public were better informed of what the EU actually is/does.
5) vote leave didn't use lies (big red buss) fear of Turkey joking the EU etc etc.
6) the involvement of the Alt right and state sponsored social media manipulation
7) Cambridge analytica using military grade propaganda tools to influence the vote.

Etc etc.

I really think you are too wrapped up in all the conspiracies.

A vote was offered, both sides campaigned badly, a decision was made.

That decision should be honoured.

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

I really think you are too wrapped up in all the conspiracies.

The Electoral Commission's findings are hardly conspiracy theory. I agree that the source of Aaron Banks' cash and so on is still in the realm of inference and suspicion.

 

[Gutter Boy]

The choices would have to be options that are workable with the EU and on the table, so that the result of the vote could be executed. The EU has already sh1t all over Chequers and I don't think the government sees Ukraine deal as viable.

Chequers and Ukraine are pretty much the same. The only difference is Ukraine includes more alignment + access for services and capital

Chequers = goods; but not labour, services or capital
Ukraine = goods, services and capital; but not labour

 

[DTA]

We tried for an improvement in terms and got told where to go, hence the referendum.

Given the absolute venom with which I get told "Why would they offer us a better deal", well, why would they offer us a better deal?

Surely it would be more sensible for the EU to leverage their position into something preferable for them, not us - in the event of a Remain U-turn. In exactly the same way remainers think they should in exit negotiations now.

1) The EU don't actually want us to leave (it's not sensible for us or them). A second referendum would still have to be won by remain.

Giving us the same or slightly better terms will mean that remain has a good chance.

2) if it is the EU28 then we are part of them and they will work with us to ensure the strength of the union (which again... Includes us) and we can be a genuine alternative to trump and Putin. That's their obligation to us. Awesome.

If it is to be the EU27. Then we are a third party and they have no obligation to us at all. So they will use every leverage that it is at their disposal to ensure that they EU27 get the best deal possible.

 

[DTA]

I don't like PR. It makes me accidentally vote for facists.

I won't ever vote Tory, Labour or Lib Dem, so once I've voted for my candidate, I just end up filling up the other preferences with the loonies. But sometimes the facists have unsuspecting party names and they get a tick along with the Pirate Party and Bus Pass Elvis Party

Then pay more attention.

 

[the dza]

Chequers and Ukraine are pretty much the same. The only difference is Ukraine includes more alignment + access for services and capital

Chequers = goods; but not labour, services or capital
Ukraine = goods, services and capital; but not labour

Very well, but Chequers, as things stand, is not an option. So if the two deals are that similar, then neither is really viable.

We know that WTO is an option (even if a terrible one). EEA is an option and CETA with Irish Sea Border is viable. If there was to be a further vote to ratify the type of "out" we want as a country, there can be no grey area or doubt. The EU would have to be 100% on board (as with those 3 options) and our government would have to be able to execute the result, without any magic thinking or such b0ll0cks.

 

[DTA]

I think its to do with the nature of their trade, IE fishing and natural resources - full EU membership would run counter to their economic policies around it (I think!).

On which basis it wouldnt suit us.



Interesting, something to look into.




I really think you are too wrapped up in all the conspiracies.

A vote was offered, both sides campaigned badly, a decision was made.

That decision should be honoured.

It's not conspiracy... All of what I wrote is fact. The only thing that is debatable is the extent of the influence.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Ah. I'm beginning to wonder whether you might be something of an outlier, politically speaking. Who is the preferred candidate? Kippers? Green? Best of the loonies?

Green - I'm left libertarian. Jenny Jones is my closest voice at Westminster

So for me the Tories are too evil, Labour are too authoritarian/keen on social control, and Lib Dems are a bit like Labour but also Europhile

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

Green - I'm left libertarian. Jenny Jones is my closest voice at Westminster

So for me the Tories are too evil, Labour are too authoritarian/keen on social control, and Lib Dems are a bit like Labour but also Europhile

I miss the days when that was true of Labour. If there's one thing I like, it's a centre-left party that's authoritarian and keen on social control. That's my problem with the LDs, but their soundness on Europe keeps me loyal.

I thought that Momentum had swept up all the left libertarians in their happy-clappy embrace, so well done for steering clear of the Jezziah.

 

[the dza]

Green - I'm left libertarian. Jenny Jones is my closest voice at Westminster

So for me the Tories are too evil, Labour are too authoritarian/keen on social control, and Lib Dems are a bit like Labour but also Europhile

Out of curiosity, in a first past the post system, with the choice likely a Tory government or a Labour one, which do you prefer?

 

[Gutter Boy]

Very well, but Chequers, as things stand, is not an option. So if the two deals are that similar, then neither is really viable.

We know that WTO is an option (even if a terrible one). EEA is an option and CETA with Irish Sea Border is viable. If there was to be a further vote to ratify the type of "out" we want as a country, there can be no grey area or doubt. The EU would have to be 400% on board (as with those 3 options) and our government would have to be able to execute the result, without any magic thinking or such b0ll0cks.

The EU have only pushed back the technicalities of the tariff collection, not the principle of goods-only alignment/access

Guy Verhofstadt in particular keeps talking about 'the association agreement', which is the language of Ukraine

Even though the goods alignment is a part-betrayal of Brexit, it does seem to me the only way out. There is a slender Commons majority for it, and the EU's narrative can be that it's not cherry picking (which keeping all 3 the freedoms except FoM would, its compromising on 1 for the sake of peace in Ireland)

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

The EU have only pushed back the technicalities of the tariff collection, not the principle of goods-only alignment/access

There's substantial disquiet in the EU about the goods-only bit, as it's impossible to separate goods from services in the bulk of manufacturing industry these days.

 

[the dza]

The EU have only pushed back the technicalities of the tariff collection, not the principle of goods-only alignment/access

Guy Verhofstadt in particular keeps talking about 'the association agreement', which is the language of Ukraine

Even though the goods alignment is a part-betrayal of Brexit, it does seem to me the only way out. There is a slender Commons majority for it, and the EU's narrative can be that it's not cherry picking (which keeping all 3 the freedoms except FoM would, its compromising on 1 for the sake of peace in Ireland)

Assuming we don't get a 2nd vote on the type of leave we're gonna take, then I hope you are right. Because this would be much better than no-deal, imo.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I miss the days when that was true of Labour. If there's one thing I like, it's a centre-left party that's authoritarian and keen on social control. That's my problem with the LDs, but their soundness on Europe keeps me loyal.

I thought that Momentum had swept up all the left libertarians in their happy-clappy embrace, so well done for steering clear of the Jezziah.

Corbyn is too statist on social policy, and the anti-Semitism thing is a major issue. I'm not a socialist economically either - that's too twentieth century. Degrowth is my thing.

Out of curiosity, in a first past the post system, with the choice likely a Tory government or a Labour one, which do you prefer?

Good question. For me it's a bit like watching Arsenal-Chelsea.

Strangely my preference is for a two-term alternation between them, so one crushes the state and the next redistributes things more fairly. The alternation between corporatism and statism checks the worst of both of them.

I want Labour to win in 2022 after Brexit is secure.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

1) The EU don't actually want us to leave (it's not sensible for us or them). A second referendum would still have to be won by remain.

Giving us the same or slightly better terms will mean that remain has a good chance.

2) if it is the EU28 then we are part of them and they will work with us to ensure the strength of the union (which again... Includes us) and we can be a genuine alternative to trump and Putin. That's their obligation to us. Awesome.

If it is to be the EU27. Then we are a third party and they have no obligation to us at all. So they will use every leverage that it is at their disposal to ensure that they EU27 get the best deal possible.

They already declined us better terms. Why would they go back on that now?

And, given the way in which they have nailed us on negotiation so far, why would they suddenly give us our own way to stay rather than try to push us more toward closer union - as is the desired destination of the bloc?

It's not conspiracy... All of what I wrote is fact. The only thing that is debatable is the extent of the influence.

Its all done, and cant be changed, so what good does banging on about it do looking ahead? You might not like how (you think) the decision was arrived at, but it was, and here we are.