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Politics, politics, politics

scaramanga said:
Currently there are no checks on goods or people going from Ireland to NI or from NI to anywhere else in the UK. That's because there's free movement of goods and people between the EU and UK and because NI is part of the UK respectively.

One of those three facts would have to change if we were to remove the free movement of goods, people or both. Either there would need to be a border between Ireland and NI (impossible in reality), a border between NI and the rest of the UK (very easy but govt would be defeated as the bigots won't vote for it) or NI would have to leave the UK.
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Would the UK gov't itself nix option 2, or is the problem that the DUP alone would block it? Because if it's the latter, surely they would have to come to recognise it as the lesser of three evils from their own point of view?

(forgive my naivety!)
 
Parklaner81 said:
Would the UK gov't itself nix option 2, or is the problem that the DUP alone would block it? Because if it's the latter, surely they would have to come to recognise it as the lesser of three evils from their own point of view?

(forgive my naivety!)
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there is only one evil in the eyes of the DUP, progress
 
scaramanga said:
Currently there are no checks on goods or people going from Ireland to NI or from NI to anywhere else in the UK. That's because there's free movement of goods and people between the EU and UK and because NI is part of the UK respectively.

One of those three facts would have to change if we were to remove the free movement of goods, people or both. Either there would need to be a border between Ireland and NI (impossible in reality), a border between NI and the rest of the UK (very easy but govt would be defeated as the bigots won't vote for it) or NI would have to leave the UK.
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That seems like a pretty good summary. Is it then fair to say what I said in an earlier post?

the dza said:
So the hardcore Brexiters like Mogg, Gove, Johnson etc. must know that there has to be a hard border in Ireland to police the movement of people.
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As you say, the DUP won't allow border changes between NI and UK Mainland and at the moment, NI isn't going to be leaving the rest of the UK (in time they might, but at the moment, they aren't going to). So that leaves option 1, which publicly nobody wants (but privately, I think Mogg etc. don't really care).

Unless free movement remains a thing, then it'd be business as usual? But I don't think that would fly with a huge chunk of the voters who voted to leave the EU.

It feels like the only solution (well, sort of) is to call another General Election. Either the Tories need enough MPs to do without the votes of the DUP or Labour need to win and offer an alternative solution to the problem. Labour want a/the customs union, so that takes care of the flow of goods, right? And I guess Labour wouldn't have to worry about the DUP so then it's the "Irish Sea" border that Arlene and her mob don't want. Problem solved?

The make-up of the current government, having to rely on the DUP, is making an already difficult problem even harder to solve.
 
Parklaner81 said:
Would the UK gov't itself nix option 2, or is the problem that the DUP alone would block it? Because if it's the latter, surely they would have to come to recognise it as the lesser of three evils from their own point of view?

(forgive my naivety!)
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I think the UK government would see option 2 as the only realistic option if we are to not have free movement of goods and people.

I don't see the DUP seeing sense as a likely scenario. He very existence of their party and their political opponents is testament to their inability to be practical and sensible when it comes to politics. They have the human rights voting record of a third world dictatorship and appear to be unable to get acquainted with this century, let alone this decade.

As he govt majority is so slim, they know they have disproportionate power and are able to simply be stubborn on the matter.
 
the dza said:
That seems like a pretty good summary. Is it then fair to say what I said in an earlier post?



As you say, the DUP won't allow border changes between NI and UK Mainland and at the moment, NI isn't going to be leaving the rest of the UK (in time they might, but at the moment, they aren't going to). So that leaves option 1, which publicly nobody wants (but privately, I think Mogg etc. don't really care).

Unless free movement remains a thing, then it'd be business as usual? But I don't think that would fly with a huge chunk of the voters who voted to leave the EU.

It feels like the only solution (well, sort of) is to call another General Election. Either the Tories need enough MPs to do without the votes of the DUP or Labour need to win and offer an alternative solution to the problem. Labour want a/the customs union, so that takes care of the flow of goods, right? And I guess Labour wouldn't have to worry about the DUP so then it's the "Irish Sea" border that Arlene and her mob don't want. Problem solved?

The make-up of the current government, having to rely on the DUP, is making an already difficult problem even harder to solve.
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I think another election is what the govt will go for, but not yet.

They'll progress with leaving the customs union and kick the border stuff into the long grass - they only need another 10 seats or for some Labour MPs to vote with their conscience rather than out of spite and they'll have he majority they need. 10 seats is a far smaller gap than that which could be made up by running a good (or even decent) campaign. A return to Cameron's "Don't vote for Labour, they'll fudge up a precarious economy. Look at that dumb fudge, he can't even handle a bacon sandwich, let alone a recession" campaign would see them sail past a Corbyn Labour party.
 
The ambiguity around nationality introduced by the Good Friday Agreement, the genius of the agreement actually, has already created a somewhat unique situation in NI. If you are born in NI you are British and Irish or both. You are now born into dual nationality which makes NI people defacto Europeans if they wish to be, and this will remain after Brexit unless the agreement is ripped up. Dissolving the GF agreement will not be allowed to happen by any party in this negotiation so this blurring of the lines will exist in one form or another even after Brexit.


The people issue could easily be solved by introducing passport control at the air and sea ports. The DUP doesn’t like this idea as they see it as another small step towards reunification of Ireland. But it is an obvious and simple solution.


The goods issue is rather more complicated as the source and destination of goods is a little harder to determine if someone is of the mind to try and hide the truth about it. Moving the customs border to the Irish seas is the only workable but not perfect option I can see.


I would suggest that NI should leverage its unique situation of having a foot in both camps and bring some money into the territory. Maybe a unique custom arrangement between Ireland, NI and the UK could be found, but this diverges from the European (and DUP) one size fits all approach. There is an opportunity here IMO.
 
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scaramanga said:
I think another election is what the govt will go for, but not yet.

They'll progress with leaving the customs union and kick the border stuff into the long grass
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Does Parliament have other ideas though? The government has delayed voting on the Lords' customs union amendment seemingly because there is a majority in Parliament who will vote against the government and stay in the customs union. I think I have that right, I'm not 100%

Which might explain the recent rumours (I think @milo posted them) about another General Election soon.
 
scaramanga said:
I think another election is what the govt will go for, but not yet.

They'll progress with leaving the customs union and kick the border stuff into the long grass - they only need another 10 seats or for some Labour MPs to vote with their conscience rather than out of spite and they'll have he majority they need. 10 seats is a far smaller gap than that which could be made up by running a good (or even decent) campaign. A return to Cameron's "Don't vote for Labour, they'll fudge up a precarious economy. Look at that dumb fudge, he can't even handle a bacon sandwich, let alone a recession" campaign would see them sail past a Corbyn Labour party.
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The conservatives Brexit bill could even make Jesser look competent........I thought that was impossible.
 
Rorschach said:
The ambiguity around nationality introduced by the Good Friday Agreement, the genius of the agreement actually, has already introduced a somewhat unique situation in NI. If you are born in NI you are British and Irish or both. You are now born into dual nationality which makes NI people defacto Europeans if they wish to be, and this will remain after Brexit unless the agreement is ripped up. Dissolving the GF agreement will not be allowed to happen by any party in this negotiation so this blurring of the lines will exist in one form or another even after Brexit.


The people issue could easily be solved by introducing passport control at the air and sea ports. The DUP don’t like this idea as they see it as another small step towards reunification of Ireland. But it is an obvious and simple solution.


The goods issue is rather more complicated as the source and destination of goods is a little harder to determine if someone is the mind to try and hide the truth about it. Moving the logical border to the Irish seas is the only workable but not perfect option I can see.


I would suggest that NI should leverage its unique situation of having a foot in both camps and bring some money into the territory. Maybe a unique custom arrangement between Ireland, NI and the UK could be found, but this diverges from the European (and DUP) one size fits all approach. There is an opportunity here IMO.
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If they were smart they'd wrangle some 'free city' status and turn themselves into a Macao-like entity
 
scaramanga said:
I think another election is what the govt will go for, but not yet.

They'll progress with leaving the customs union and kick the border stuff into the long grass - they only need another 10 seats or for some Labour MPs to vote with their conscience rather than out of spite and they'll have he majority they need. 10 seats is a far smaller gap than that which could be made up by running a good (or even decent) campaign. A return to Cameron's "Don't vote for Labour, they'll fudge up a precarious economy. Look at that dumb fudge, he can't even handle a bacon sandwich, let alone a recession" campaign would see them sail past a Corbyn Labour party.
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The electorate seems split at pretty-much 40-45% Tory - 40-45% Labour. I can't see that deadlock changing for the time being, so another election is going to be very tight/probably hung again.

The interesting thing is that the parties, while not affecting net numbers, have seemingly swapped big chunks of their voters. The Tories have made inroads with the anti-globalisation northern working class, while Labour have taken a comparable amount of business-focused London and the south-east middle class.
 
Gutter Boy said:
The electorate seems split at pretty-much 40-45% Tory - 40-45% Labour. I can't see that deadlock changing for the time being, so another election is going to be very tight/probably hung again.

The interesting thing is that the parties, while not affecting net numbers, have seemingly swapped big chunks of their voters. The Tories have made inroads with the anti-globalisation northern working class, while Labour have taken a comparable amount of business-focused London and the south-east middle class.
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Don't dispute any of what you're saying, but I have a hunch that there's a small but potentially significant portion of last year's Labour vote that might just have been kicking themselves since the GE. Anybody for whom brexit represents a political priority (for example, the 'Labour' UKIP vote) but refused to vote tory tinkled down their own leg to some extent in backing Corbyn. Will be very interesting indeed to see how his 'support' holds up next time.
 
Parklaner81 said:
Don't dispute any of what you're saying, but I have a hunch that there's a small but potentially significant portion of last year's Labour vote that might just have been kicking themselves since the GE. Anybody for whom brexit represents a political priority (for example, the 'Labour' UKIP vote) but refused to vote tory tinkled down their own leg to some extent in backing Corbyn. Will be very interesting indeed to see how his 'support' holds up next time.
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If the next election isn't till 2022 though, it should be fought on issues like renationalisation, reneging PFIs and privacy laws, where Corbyn's positions holds majority support. With Brexit complete/defused, the right manifesto could be as successful as 1945.
 
Gutter Boy said:
If the next election isn't till 2022 though, it should be fought on issues like renationalisation, reneging PFIs and privacy laws, where Corbyn's positions holds majority support. With Brexit complete/defused, the right manifesto could be as successful as 1945.
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I guess the key there then is the date of the next GE, and interim events. My comment was more made with a mind to an early election, as is hinted at earlier in the thread.
 
the dza said:
Does Parliament have other ideas though? The government has delayed voting on the Lords' customs union amendment seemingly because there is a majority in Parliament who will vote against the government and stay in the customs union. I think I have that right, I'm not 400%

Which might explain the recent rumours (I think @milo posted them) about another General Election soon.
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That's internal to the Conservative party - I don't take a lot of interest in that as it's all too tribal for me. I can't imagine any Conservative would seriously want an election right now - whilst they did way better in the council seats than any incumbent government could expect, there doesn't appear to be much of a sea change from the last election that would give them any kind of stable majority. There's also too many parties playing "Anyone but the Conservatives" right now.

I'd imagine it's all about internal power struggles (when isn't it with that lot?) and the beginning of an attempt on the leadership.
 
milo said:
I can't see it. 'Vote for us, we cannot agree what to do between ourselves' is not a great message to go to the country with.
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Might there be a confidence vote if the hardcore Brexiters think that May is phucking them over? Or if Parliament votes to stay in a customs union?

You are probably right though.
 
the dza said:
Might there be a confidence vote if the hardcore Brexiters think that May is phucking them over? Or if Parliament votes to stay in a customs union?

You are probably right though.
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Confidence votes don't really exist, as the did, since the Fixed Term Parliament Act was introduced. ERG could easily trigger a leadership competition but I think that they are focused on getting past next March and will worry about everything else after that.
 
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