Politics, politics, politics

[Gutter Boy]

All the talk of the Irish border/customs union. If the EU has free movement of people and there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and The Republic (which is what everyone says they want) and there is no hard border down the Irish Sea (as The DUP -- who keep The Tories in power -- insist can't happen), then how will movement of people work between Britain and Ireland?

There's already a hard border down the Irish Sea. It's called the Irish Sea. Unless you fancy rowing/swimming, you have to enter Britain via a port or airport, at which point all non UK or Irish citizens would need visas/passports.

I guess the danger is Northern Ireland potentially becoming a Jungle-style holding area for migrants

 

[Gutter Boy]

Which is the crux of Brexit. People can talk about sovereignty and all the rest of it, but immigration is the issue that swung the vote to leave.

So the hardcore Brexiters like Mogg, Gove, Johnson etc. must know that there has to be a hard border in Ireland to police the movement of people. It's either that or stay in the single market, surely there is no other solution? A soft border won't stop people crossing, so if free movement ends, there has to be a hard border somewhere, surely?

We're gonna end up with Norway plus customs union (they might give this arrangement a different name) or hard brexit, there's no middle ground if free movement is to end. Personally, whilst I think there are issues with free movement, I don't think ending it is worth the aggravation. Labour will slowly drift to the former arrangement imo.

The voting age majority in Northern Ireland will likely become nationalist (estimated 2021) the same time the transition agreement expires (estimated 2021). So the solution that can't be uttered at the moment because of the DUP is a reunified Ireland

 

[monkeybarry]

I wonder if they are throwing it, trust that Corbyn has enough support to keep the leadership, he’ll drive the brexit shambles bus over the cliff anyway, they can then blame the inevitable economic meltdown on labour, “them foreigns that are still here and the bloody remainers who refuse to shoot rainbows out of their butts”.

That's what I thought they would do with May.
This time I don't think so.
It's win win though - as you say, Corbyn taking over this Brexit would utterly destroy Labour.
They will push a hard Brexit candidate into the leaderlifeboat (it's not a ship) first.

 

[scaramanga]

There's already a hard border down the Irish Sea. It's called the Irish Sea. Unless you fancy rowing/swimming, you have to enter Britain via a port or airport, at which point all non UK or Irish citizens would need visas/passports.

I guess the danger is Northern Ireland potentially becoming a Jungle-style holding area for migrants

Which makes it an EU problem, not a UK one. They've done a very good job of making it sound like a UK problem but in reality the only part of the UK undocumented immigrants can access is the bricky bit nobody wants.

 

[Gutter Boy]

The EU are keen to erect borders when it’s a poorer country on the outside. Look at what they did with Neum. They forced Croatia to cut off the southern bit of itself with two borders (and tear up a treaty that had been working perfectly well for 300 years) because they wanted to end Croatia's travel arrangement with Bosnia. Croatia is having to build a 20 mile bridge now to circumvent it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neum

 

[the dza]

There's already a hard border down the Irish Sea. It's called the Irish Sea. Unless you fancy rowing/swimming, you have to enter Britain via a port or airport, at which point all non UK or Irish citizens would need visas/passports.

I guess the danger is Northern Ireland potentially becoming a Jungle-style holding area for migrants

I'm not disagreeing with you, but in that case, what is it that the DUP are rejecting when they reject the concept of a border in the Irish Sea?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...t-accept-brexit-border-in-irish-sea-1.3311275

Ms Foster said that Ms May already “has been categorical” in accepting the DUP requirement. “Her Majesty’s government have a clear understanding that the DUP will not countenance any arrangement that could lead to a new Border being created in the Irish Sea,” she said.

__________

Is it just goods that they are worried about, not people?

 

[Rorschach]

I'm not disagreeing with you, but in that case, what is it that the DUP are rejecting when they reject the concept of a border in the Irish Sea?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...t-accept-brexit-border-in-irish-sea-1.3311275

Ms Foster said that Ms May already “has been categorical” in accepting the DUP requirement. “Her Majesty’s government have a clear understanding that the DUP will not countenance any arrangement that could lead to a new Border being created in the Irish Sea,” she said.

__________

Is it just goods that they are worried about, not people?

The Dup see any divergence as a step towards a united Ireland. Simple as that really.

 

[the dza]

The Dup see any divergence as a step towards a united Ireland. Simple as that really.

I understand why they don't want to be cut away from the rest of the UK and pushed closer to the Republic. But specifically, what is it that (potentially) changes with regards the Irish Sea Border?

 

[Gutter Boy]

I understand why they don't want to be cut away from the rest of the UK and pushed closer to the Republic. But specifically, what is it that (potentially) changes with regards the Irish Sea Border?

All it should change re people is that EU26 nationals have to go into the RoW queue at Belfast airports and port

 

[Rorschach]

I understand why they don't want to be cut away from the rest of the UK and pushed closer to the Republic. But specifically, what is it that (potentially) changes with regards the Irish Sea Border?

Not sure I quite get the question. There is no Irish sea border now, no border anywhere in fact so that will change. Customs and excise will need to be charged at some location and that by rights should be along the real Rep and North border, but that is definitely not going to happen. One thing I'm sure of is the hard border will not be making a return. Pushing the defacto border to the NI ports and airport is probably somewhat workable but the DUP will kick up blue murder on that idea. I can't see a solution that will suit everyone.

 

[Rorschach]

All it should change re people is that EU26 nationals have to go into the RoW queue at Belfast airports and port

There is no passport checking between UK/Ireland at the sea ports because of the common travel arrangement. The airports are a lot stricter now of course but that was not always the case. Easily changed at the sea ports of course.

 

[Baleforce]

There is no passport checking between UK/Ireland at the sea ports because of the common travel arrangement. The airports are a lot stricter now of course but that was not always the case.

I may be getting confused and misremembering but I’m pretty sure I once flew from London to Dublin with a couple of Irish mates who used their driving licenses rather than passports as ID.

 

[Rorschach]

I may be getting confused and misremembering but I’m pretty sure I once flew from London to Dublin with a couple of Irish mates who used their driving licenses rather than passports as ID.

You could once upon a time but airport security checks are lot stricter (everywhere) now.

 

[Baleforce]

You could once upon a time but airport security checks are lot stricter (everywhere) now.

This would have been between 10 and 15 years ago tops.

 

[Mikey10]

Even at the height of The Troubles there was never a hard border. There are literally hundreds of country roads between NI and the ROI - monitoring them all is simply impossible. Any checks will need to be on those entering the ROI and the Irish Govt won’t go for that - meaning the checks would need to take place on the UK mainland and that ain’t gonna happen either.

FUBAR is the military term, I believe.

 

[Parklaner81]

There is no passport checking between UK/Ireland at the sea ports because of the common travel arrangement. The airports are a lot stricter now of course but that was not always the case. Easily changed at the sea ports of course.

I'm pretty sure I've returned from the Republic via air without passport checks on more than one occasion in recent years too.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I may be getting confused and misremembering but I’m pretty sure I once flew from London to Dublin with a couple of Irish mates who used their driving licenses rather than passports as ID.

The EU lets people use ID cards instead of passports. That never worked for Brits though because we were determined enough to resist them

 

[Baleforce]

We can use ID cards (such as driving licenses) for flights to NI instead of passports though right?

 

[the dza]

Not sure I quite get the question. There is no Irish sea border now, no border anywhere in fact so that will change. Customs and excise will need to be charged at some location and that by rights should be along the real Rep and North border, but that is definitely not going to happen. One thing I'm sure of is the hard border will not be making a return. Pushing the defacto border to the NI ports and airport is probably somewhat workable but the DUP will kick up blue murder on that idea. I can't see a solution that will suit everyone.

Thank you. What I'm trying to get at is how people move around now, between UK mainland and N.Ireland, and what it is that the DUP are objecting to re. potential changes. Arlene Foster has said she rejects any border in the Irish Sea, so I assumed the current arrangement is that people cross between NI and UK Mainland very freely, and that this isn't a problem when we are all in the EU -- but then how does it work when the Republic is in EU with free movement, and no borders between Republic---NI and NI----UK Mainland?

Basically, I want to try and understand if a customs union with us and the EU is enough to keep everything moving (no hard border or new Irish Sea border), or do we need single-market membership (or equivalent) so that we have free movement of people from the EU?

If a customs union gets the job done, then Labour's current plan is ok. If not, then they'll need to go further.

Sorry, I am really mangling the wording of my questions here!

 

[scaramanga]

Thank you. What I'm trying to get at is how people move around now, between UK mainland and N.Ireland, and what it is that the DUP are objecting to re. potential changes. Arlene Foster has said she rejects any border in the Irish Sea, so I assumed the current arrangement is that people cross between NI and UK Mainland very freely, and that this isn't a problem when we are all in the EU -- but then how does it work when the Republic is in EU with free movement, and no borders between Republic---NI and NI----UK Mainland?

Basically, I want to try and understand if a customs union with us and the EU is enough to keep everything moving (no hard border or new Irish Sea border), or do we need single-market membership (or equivalent) so that we have free movement of people from the EU?

If a customs union gets the job done, then Labour's current plan is ok. If not, then they'll need to go further.

Sorry, I am really mangling the wording of my questions here!

Currently there are no checks on goods or people going from Ireland to NI or from NI to anywhere else in the UK. That's because there's free movement of goods and people between the EU and UK and because NI is part of the UK respectively.

One of those three facts would have to change if we were to remove the free movement of goods, people or both. Either there would need to be a border between Ireland and NI (impossible in reality), a border between NI and the rest of the UK (very easy but govt would be defeated as the bigots won't vote for it) or NI would have to leave the UK.

My personal choice is to leave the customs union, have no border and do as follows:

1. Place all illegal immigrants and those who fail residency tests in NI next to the border. After all, the only responsible thing would be to leave them at a land border - we can't Chuck them out to sea
2. Set up an NI corporation tax rate of 5%, halve business rates and cap personal taxation at £100k for 5 years
3. Discount all exports through NI by whatever the EU import tariff rate is
4. Remove in and out of work benefits for non UK residents so as to avoid any incentive to cross from Ireland to NI

We could also discount the import of cheap tat as long as it is resold externally to the UK with some form of rebate - essentially breaking their protectionist racket of tariffs.

Do that and we make the border the EU's problem and not ours. Not to mention that we'd steal most of the business from anywhere in commuting range of the border.