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Politics, politics, politics

r-u-s-x01 said:
That's the point I am trying to make, I just can't see the bullying aspect, even if they decide wto levels its not bullying.
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There is no bullying aspect. People are so used to seeing international relations as us versus them that they find it difficult to think otherwise.
 
@indianspur
That is a reply.

Peace in western Europe really is quite young, only 65-70 years and the conditions outlined in that guys response are the kind that are likely to create displacement and economic difficulties across mainland Europe.

For all its faults, the EU has created a platform whereby Europe as a whole can coexist without the need for large-scale internal wars. This is a price the UK should have been prepared to bear.
And I know the UK has this (deplorable) arrogance about being an island and somewhat immune to the effects - but it's something we need to seriously guard against. Especially with upcoming elections in the US (and deep internal social issues), France and Germany. Spain being content to have no Govt (be interesting to see how that pans out), Russia bombing Syria and whatever fallout comes from the west regarding Assad's position.

Without wanting to sound melodramatic, I think we are heading for some real worldwide instability if a couple of scenarios go a fractious way
 
the dza said:
Yes, but at what level does it have to fall to before the people in charge think "sh1t, we've got a problem" ?

It's gone lower v the US Dollar than at any time during my lifetime, but then we've been in the EU for my lifetime as well. Do the alarm bells ring when it's at parity? Lower?
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In all honesty, I think the Tories will be quite happy for inflation and the impact of being a net importer - no money for public funds = sell services to business to run...... and all because the people voted FOR it.
 
monkeybarry said:
In all honesty, I think the Tories will be quite happy for inflation and the impact of being a net importer - no money for public funds = sell services to business to run...... and all because the people voted FOR it.
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They won't be happy when people start noticing prices going up. The price of petrol is pretty noticeable and there is normally resistance to its price going up.
 
milo said:
They won't be happy when people start noticing prices going up. The price of petrol is pretty noticeable and there is normally resistance to its price going up.
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They have 4 more years of Govt and no prospect of an opposition in sight.
Push for price increases now along with a democratic excuse that as soon as it's mentioned turns the people on each other, make a few bob for their mates, stabilise it in two years and by the time the ballot paper comes most voters will only think of the new price as "the norm"

It's win-win for Tories.
 
monkeybarry said:
They have 4 more years of Govt and no prospect of an opposition in sight.
Push for price increases now along with a democratic excuse that as soon as it's mentioned turns the people on each other, make a few bob for their mates, stabilise it in two years and by the time the ballot paper comes most voters will only think of the new price as "the norm"

It's win-win for Tories.
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I don't think that May can risk it. The next election is long enough away that it is still not a foregone conclusion that she'll be facing Corbin. Once you've lost a reputation for economic competence, it can be very difficult to regain it.
 
milo said:
I don't think that May can risk it. The next election is long enough away that it is still not a foregone conclusion that she'll be facing Corbin. Once you've lost a reputation for economic competence, it can be very difficult to regain it.
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True.
But I think Brexit has enough weight as an excuse for economic performance.
That said, they will rooster up Brexit, and that reputational damage will be huge

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monkeybarry said:
True.
But I think Brexit has enough weight as an excuse for economic performance.
That said, they will rooster up Brexit, and that reputational damage will be huge
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The question is, can Labour pin the blame for any damage on bad handling by the government? Kier Starmer is an astute choice of Shadow Brexit Secretary. A barrister's approach could be very effective in picking this apart and none of the three Brexiteers are details people.
 
monkeybarry said:
@indianspur
That is a reply.

Peace in western Europe really is quite young, only 65-70 years and the conditions outlined in that guys response are the kind that are likely to create displacement and economic difficulties across mainland Europe.

For all its faults, the EU has created a platform whereby Europe as a whole can coexist without the need for large-scale internal wars. This is a price the UK should have been prepared to bear.
And I know the UK has this (deplorable) arrogance about being an island and somewhat immune to the effects - but it's something we need to seriously guard against. Especially with upcoming elections in the US (and deep internal social issues), France and Germany. Spain being content to have no Govt (be interesting to see how that pans out), Russia bombing Syria and whatever fallout comes from the west regarding Assad's position.

Without wanting to sound melodramatic, I think we are heading for some real worldwide instability if a couple of scenarios go a fractious way
Click to expand...

The island mentality that keeps us safe and out of war is of course a fallacy, we've been actively involved in just about every continental European war worth mentioning between the major powers.
At various times we've been at war with the Dutch, Spanish, Portuguese, Danes, Italians, French monarchy, French revolutionaries, French empire, the Russians, several of the German states, the German state and actually quite a few times alliances of some or most of them at once.

I like and agree with a lot of that article but I don't like the tone tbh.
 
glorygloryeze said:
Wow, what an impasse. i wonder what effect that will have on EU Politics (esp the upcoming elections in France and Germany) and Economics..
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Or the make up of Spain?
Shoe horn in a weak Government and ramp up the Basque, Catalonian and the other region (can't remember the name) that has an appetite for greater autonomy.
Political turmoil not exactly new to Spain. Only 40 years since being a dictatorship.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
monkeybarry said:
Or the make up of Spain?
Shoe horn in a weak Government and ramp up the Basque, Catalonian and the other region (can't remember the name) that has an appetite for greater autonomy.
Political turmoil not exactly new to Spain. Only 40 years since being a dictatorship.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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Yes; certainly if Spain was to break up into regions like that, i could see them being even more subsumed into the EU - and give Scotland's independence goal a massive boost...
 
glorygloryeze said:
Yes; certainly if Spain was to break up into regions like that, i could see them being even more subsumed into the EU - and give Scotland's independence goal a massive boost...
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More likely mass devolution rather than break ups, I don't think any of the regions seriously think they could go it alone.
And if they did they are likely to not get the requisite political acceptance to join the EU.

A Basque powerbase movement would have large ramifications for southern France too

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glasgowspur said:
The island mentality that keeps us safe and out of war is of course a fallacy, we've been actively involved in just about every continental European war worth mentioning between the major powers.
At various times we've been at war with the Dutch, Spanish, Portuguese, Danes, Italians, French monarchy, French revolutionaries, French empire, the Russians, several of the German states, the German state and actually quite a few times alliances of some or most of them at once.

I like and agree with a lot of that article but I don't like the tone tbh.
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It is a terrible article, written in the typical cliched, sneering xenophobic tone of the brexit politician, with no balance. The negotiations on Brexit haven't even started and the author has already adopted a position of belligerent defiance and looking down his nose at the EU. It does a great disservice to the legitimate concerns that millions of people have/had to the EU "project." To belittle Poland for example, one of the strongest Eastern bloc economies in the EU, with a growth rate we can only dream of, is pathetic. It is pure hyperbole to claim that "until brexit no one in the UK has been able to comment about the EU," or that Britain had somehow lost its identity or sovereignty. In fact many Europeans looked on at us in envy at the deals and concessions we were able to eke out. We were not part of the Euro zone, opted out of Schengen etc. The very nature of alliances is that both sides compromise. To dismiss the EU as a "failing project" is also wide of the mark. To get 28 states, with different languages, cultures, and religions around a table and get constructive decision making on trade, food control, security and law and order is an incredible feat. I have a friend from Saudi Arabia who points out that the Arabs are amazed by what is achieved by the EU as despite sharing the same language and religion they cannot achieve any similar kind of constructive Union. It is also one of the reasons why I am so sad to leave the union and believe that it is, on balance, the wrong decision for the UK.

However, amongst the nonsense were 2 valid points; firstly that the pace of integration and expansion is too fast consequently crippling some of the less robust eastern bloc economies such as Romania (which is why there are so many migrants from there); secondly that the populations from other European countries remain sceptical about the Union and feel unconsulted on many of the decisions taken by the politicians (incidentally that seems to be how many are also feeling about their national governments so maybe it is indicative of a wider disconnect between politicians and their electorate). If another major European power, acquiesces to pressure from its electorate and calls a referendum on membership, it is likely it will lose at this time. If a major Eurozone country leaves, it could be curtains for the Union. The European Commission would do well to learn some lessons from Brexit and not to ride roughshod over the concerns of the populations of its member states.
 
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monkeybarry said:
More likely mass devolution rather than break ups, I don't think any of the regions seriously think they could go it alone.
And if they did they are likely to not get the requisite political acceptance to join the EU.

A Basque powerbase movement would have large ramifications for southern France too

Sent from my Nexus 5X using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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All about what a group of peoples/nation feels though. Look at Scotland; i bet 10 years ago no-one would think a referendum would even take place, never mind a groundswell of thinking that they can govern themselves.

Also, what is the requisite political acceptance to join the EU?
 
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