Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[P.D.]

The data quoted in that chart is very old (from a 2011 report). It is not clear if it is referring to the deployment of new nuclear but I would say it is not based on the numbers. New nuclear is about 2-4 times the price of renewables (more for SMRs) and only heading in one direction. Also, renewables can be deployed in a fraction of the time it takes to get a nuclear plant up and running, and time is of the essence for the climate now. Anything being built now won't stand a chance in the market by the time it comes online.

Just on the windy/sunny thing (a meme in climate circles). Yes those that design and balance the grid do understand this variance. The UK will need peaker plants of one technology or another until enough renewables are deployed and storage catches up. And it will.

You might not be aware that nuclear plants are also shut down regularly for a variety of reasons. Half of France's nuclear power plants were offline for one reason or another in 22. They are not as reliable as often imagined, and can only be used as base load. And those plants built beside the sea or rivers (all of them ) will have their own problems as the climate changes, with sea level rise and droughts. There is also a different problem with cheap renewable power in the market compared to more expensive base-load nuclear power, the flip side of the coin, but that is a whole other discussion which I won't get into.

Anyway in short, existing nuclear I'm down with but new stuff doesn't make sense is where I land.

We can't rely on an assumption that storage will just catch up for a whole country though. Is there anything available that's currently proven on the scale of the UK that could store 5 days worth of power for 75% of our needs? I'm sure storage will improve in the future but until we're nearer that time we need consistent reliable power which nuclear provides. Yes of course it needs maintenance but France didn't experience energy price spikes to the same degree as other countries because of their large nuclear fleet, their fleet is also quite old now I believe.

 

[Grays_1890]

It's not straightforward to undo in 6 months 14 years of the adverse effects of austerity, Brexit and Liz Truss blowing up the economy.

I'll judge them in three or so years time.

Hislops interview last week said exactly the same, was actually really well talked out. Basically saying that Starmer and Reeves are not great politicians but whats being levelled at them for blame is a total nonsense and there are people clearly ignoring what comes under the blame of the last lot.

 

[P.D.]

Hislops interview last week said exactly the same, was actually really well talked out. Basically saying that Starmer and Reeves are not great politicians but whats being levelled at them for blame is a total nonsense and there are people clearly ignoring what comes under the blame of the last lot.

To be fair they do need time but all we can judge them on right now is on what's happening and it doesn't look good for them. 2 ministers gone already, negative reactions from business and markets, scrabbling around for growth ideas etc - of course the press and twitter armies are going to comment. Same way we discuss Ange to death every day and analyse every game - it's all we have to go on.

 

[Grays_1890]

To be fair they do need time but all we can judge them on right now is on what's happening and it doesn't look good for them. 2 ministers gone already, negative reactions from business and markets, scrabbling around for growth ideas etc - of course the press and twitter armies are going to comment. Same way we discuss Ange to death every day and analyse every game - it's all we have to go on.

The growth ideas is a long term issue though, we literally are a country that is at the crossroads of what is next for the UK in terms of industry. There is only so much we can do with the industries we have. TBF to Rishi (and despite people hating him, the London mayor has worked hard to future proof industry in London) he had a good head on his shoulders about future growth but that in itself is going to take time to come to fruition. Other countries have stolen a march on us when it comes to emerging industries, we self harmed with many of our traditional industries that relied on import and export freedoms because of the B word.

The TV Doc What Britain buys and sells in a day gives a massive insight into where we are and why

 

[LutonSpurs]

There is really very little difference between this Labour government and Theresa May/Cameron governments.

 

[Kompakted]

So far the damage done in the markets is entirely down to Labour rhetoric (that and a general suspicion that Reeves is probably out of her depth). Her own PM wouldn't guarantee her job - an arm's length minion had to do that for him.

Wait until April when the changes actually take place and see what happens then.

Uk market volatility almost exactly mirrored the same volatility in US and European markets so I think these short term shocks are more to do with "New York coughs and London sneezes". People always point to UK being "worse than others" in terms of impact from these global events, but this always fails to factor in that the UK's economy is significantly based on facilitating global commerce and trade. The UK is the world's largest supplier of offshore finance services (i.e. services supplied to those that are not residing in/registered in the country) and cross-border banking. So when there's a global or regional downturn - we feel the consequences harder.

I think the inflationary and confidence/growth dampening measures introduced in the budget will take time to take hold propery but have been an exacerbating factor in market confidence in the UK and business confidence within the economy

 

[P.D.]

The growth ideas is a long term issue though, we literally are a country that is at the crossroads of what is next for the UK in terms of industry. There is only so much we can do with the industries we have. TBF to Rishi (and despite people hating him, the London mayor has worked hard to future proof industry in London) he had a good head on his shoulders about future growth but that in itself is going to take time to come to fruition. Other countries have stolen a march on us when it comes to emerging industries, we self harmed with many of our traditional industries that relied on import and export freedoms because of the B word.

The TV Doc What Britain buys and sells in a day gives a massive insight into where we are and why

Yeah agreed but on the flipside there's so much opportunity to move into industries of the future that we could potentially compete in - biotech, AI, SMRs, high end engineering etc are all possibilities but we need to move quickly. Europe has barely any tech unicorns for instance but the UK has a few plus some US VCs have set up offices here - should be easy to steal a march. The government has a massive majority to get things done if they're ambitious enough but when we spend 30 years arguing over a runway and £100m on a bat tunnel we're not going anywhere. I mean just our timezone and language gives us an advantage over many countries.

 

[Grays_1890]

Yeah agreed but on the flipside there's so much opportunity to move into industries of the future that we could potentially compete in - biotech, AI, SMRs, high end engineering etc are all possibilities but we need to move quickly. Europe has barely any tech unicorns for instance but the UK has a few plus some US VCs have set up offices here - should be easy to steal a march. The government has a massive majority to get things done if they're ambitious enough but when we spend 30 years arguing over a runway and £100m on a bat tunnel we're not going anywhere. I mean just our timezone and language gives us an advantage over many countries.

Yeh I agree, but to the original point about them needing ideas on growth, I agree also but its not just on them solely, this should have been in the planning for 20/30 years previous, you have to be ahead of the curve, I am confident like you we still have opportunity to do so.

But its like anything in government, if its not impacting the next 2/3 years they never did anything because its decisions that win votes they care about. Now the chickens come home (abit like the prison system debacle) and someone's left holding the can

 

[Rorschach]

We can't rely on an assumption that storage will just catch up for a whole country though. Is there anything available that's currently proven on the scale of the UK that could store 5 days worth of power for 75% of our needs? I'm sure storage will improve in the future but until we're nearer that time we need consistent reliable power which nuclear provides. Yes of course it needs maintenance but France didn't experience energy price spikes to the same degree as other countries because of their large nuclear fleet, their fleet is also quite old now I believe.

Agree. Just to reiterate my own point, existing nuclear should certainly be kept (and maintained) but new nuclear is too expensive and takes so long to roll out that it will certainly be obsolete by the time it happens. It is good for base power so as I say keep that until it can be replaced.

The future grid balancing issues are mostly to do with dispatchable power, and nuclear cannot be used for that. So what are the dispatchable options? At the moment gas plants, a bad option for multiple reasons. There is some pumped hydro and there are interconnectors. Ultimately though it will be batteries filling the dispatchable power gap. Utility-scale batteries are a thing already, albeit a pricy thing, but they are a perfect fit for this job and getting cheaper all the time. The UK has about 4GW or so already which is a good start. At some point the V2G market will ramp up and that will change the whole energy landscape, IMHO. Every EV owner will be the storage provider. It is a bit away but it is not as far as folks think.

If you are looking for some dark horses, in the energy space then enhanced geothermal is beginning to gain traction, and thermal storage in the storage space . And fusion is just 10 years away I hear.