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I aint no Sheikh-but lets talk weather
- Thread starter ricky2tricky4city
- Start date
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
Leeds Spur
Banned
Off to Tenerife next week. 30 degrees thank GHod!!
southstand1882
Mitchell Thomas
Off to Edinburgh next week. It's tinkling down with rain
ricky2tricky4city
Steffen Freund
Looks like the temps are finally picking up next week. And some atlantic swell actually swinging the right way for once. Its been a funny old pattern for sure, but in teh water thurs/fri looks nailed on. 
Sheikh Ma Nuggets
Tony Parks
Brief update on further ahead...
Summer 2012
Precipitation Anomaly % Deviation (Jun - Aug 12)
http://oi50.tinypic.com/2qu7z1g.jpg
This is the latest output which gives an indication as to the pressure (height) anomaly: orange = higher pressure, blue = lower pressure. As you can see, over our region, we have a strong anomalously high pressure signal. It proposes that this anomalously high pressure is prevalent through the months of June, July & August, ie: our summer months, in the Northern Hemisphere.
So what does that mean to us? Well, in simple terms, lower pressure precludes warmer, drier weather - so, if you have a signal for higher prevailing pressure, then the signs are much better. This is why I was mentioning that height rises were crucial to how good/bad our summer would be.
In terms of reliability: this particular model is refreshed every 30 days or so, and the important factor is that - over the last 90 days - the signal for strong heights over NW Europe has been consistent, indeed actually getting stronger. So, there's a good trend there. It can change though, so - as with all weather models - caution must be observed.
There's no point asking me about specific temperatures or such like, as - at this range - you just can't tell. It's very much like winter though: strong/low heights, in the right places, set favourable conditions. This graph sets favourable conditions for warmer temperatures, over those particular months.
I did say early May would continue the unsettled theme and, through the mid-point we'd see a pattern change into June, and that is looking absolutely rocksolid It's always been a matter of patience on this, and anyone who wrote summer off based on a wet April is/was talking out of their arse. Strong, consistent evidence for an enjoyable summer ahead...
Summer 2012
Precipitation Anomaly % Deviation (Jun - Aug 12)
http://oi50.tinypic.com/2qu7z1g.jpg
This is the latest output which gives an indication as to the pressure (height) anomaly: orange = higher pressure, blue = lower pressure. As you can see, over our region, we have a strong anomalously high pressure signal. It proposes that this anomalously high pressure is prevalent through the months of June, July & August, ie: our summer months, in the Northern Hemisphere.
So what does that mean to us? Well, in simple terms, lower pressure precludes warmer, drier weather - so, if you have a signal for higher prevailing pressure, then the signs are much better. This is why I was mentioning that height rises were crucial to how good/bad our summer would be.
In terms of reliability: this particular model is refreshed every 30 days or so, and the important factor is that - over the last 90 days - the signal for strong heights over NW Europe has been consistent, indeed actually getting stronger. So, there's a good trend there. It can change though, so - as with all weather models - caution must be observed.
There's no point asking me about specific temperatures or such like, as - at this range - you just can't tell. It's very much like winter though: strong/low heights, in the right places, set favourable conditions. This graph sets favourable conditions for warmer temperatures, over those particular months.
I did say early May would continue the unsettled theme and, through the mid-point we'd see a pattern change into June, and that is looking absolutely rocksolid
It's always been a matter of patience on this, and anyone who wrote summer off based on a wet April is/was talking out of their arse. Strong, consistent evidence for an enjoyable summer ahead...
Last edited:
Leeds Spur
Banned
Thank fudge for that!!! 7 degrees here today!!!!!
southstand1882
Mitchell Thomas
Leeds Spur
Banned
The one thing I miss about the south. The weather!!
Kingdawson
Banned
Brief update on further ahead...
Summer 2012
Precipitation Anomaly % Deviation (Jun - Aug 12)
http://oi50.tinypic.com/2qu7z1g.jpg
This is the latest output which gives an indication as to the pressure (height) anomaly: orange = higher pressure, blue = lower pressure. As you can see, over our region, we have a strong anomalously high pressure signal. It proposes that this anomalously high pressure is prevalent through the months of June, July & August, ie: our summer months, in the Northern Hemisphere.
So what does that mean to us? Well, in simple terms, lower pressure precludes warmer, drier weather - so, if you have a signal for higher prevailing pressure, then the signs are much better. This is why I was mentioning that height rises were crucial to how good/bad our summer would be.
In terms of reliability: this particular model is refreshed every 30 days or so, and the important factor is that - over the last 90 days - the signal for strong heights over NW Europe has been consistent, indeed actually getting stronger. So, there's a good trend there. It can change though, so - as with all weather models - caution must be observed.
There's no point asking me about specific temperatures or such like, as - at this range - you just can't tell. It's very much like winter though: strong/low heights, in the right places, set favourable conditions. This graph sets favourable conditions for warmer temperatures, over those particular months.
I did say early May would continue the unsettled theme and, through the mid-point we'd see a pattern change into June, and that is looking absolutely rocksolid
you seem unnaturally clever.
Leeds Spur
Banned
Meteorology is very interesting!
Terrific debunk of Global Warming gonads here:
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/warmists-are-wrong-cooling-is-coming.html
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/warmists-are-wrong-cooling-is-coming.html
LutonSpurs
Eric Dear
I hear gale force winds this week, what is the outlook for the rest of June? still same as above sheikh?
ricky2tricky4city
Steffen Freund
C'mon sheikh its been nearly 3 weeks
we better not be falling back into that May pattern, those low pressures keep heading straight for us, surely thats far to south. do we need that azores high to bully them further north??
that hot spell got me all giddy......eating outside in the evening, ice cold beers, lunch on the beach etc arhhhh life's just better
whats going on sheiky
we better not be falling back into that May pattern, those low pressures keep heading straight for us, surely thats far to south. do we need that azores high to bully them further north??
that hot spell got me all giddy......eating outside in the evening, ice cold beers, lunch on the beach etc arhhhh life's just better
whats going on sheiky
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DHSF
Les Ferdinand
Yes thanks... more skirts flying about and girls struggling to hold em down.
Yeah I know im a perv... and
Kingdawson
Banned
Sheik just posted so he's online i think. Sheikh let us know wagwan with the weather forecast these coming weeks...
Sheikh Ma Nuggets
Tony Parks
I haven't had a chance to look at any weather data for a while chaps, so I'll take a looksee later on and see what the lay of the land is.
My general observation is that the current weather isn't greatly surprising/out-of-kilter for early June, ie: heavy thundery showers. Generally this is because the sun is reaching its strongest, and if you have low pressure dominant, then this greatly increases the chance of explosive convection through the afternoons. To turn this pattern, you need a pressure build - ideally to our south or east (north/west tends to bring in clear skies, but colder airflow) so - hopefully(!) - this is in the offing soon. Shall get back to you...
My general observation is that the current weather isn't greatly surprising/out-of-kilter for early June, ie: heavy thundery showers. Generally this is because the sun is reaching its strongest, and if you have low pressure dominant, then this greatly increases the chance of explosive convection through the afternoons. To turn this pattern, you need a pressure build - ideally to our south or east (north/west tends to bring in clear skies, but colder airflow) so - hopefully(!) - this is in the offing soon. Shall get back to you...