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I aint no Sheikh-but lets talk weather

Sheikh Ma Nuggets said:
Our weather is being heavily influenced by the mean trough which has been slap bang on top of the UK for the last 18 days or so. This is allowing low pressure systems to whistle in and dump bucketloads of rain, very unstable air mass too - so plenty of convection/thunderstorms involved. The weekend looks decidedly wet, with Sunday in particular being something of a complete washout; frontal rain passing SW-NE over, giving another fair deluge. But there are signs of some change afoot, and a move to a drier period as heights build from the continent in the early part of next week. This will introduce less rain, clearer skies - but not exactly warm, as the flow will be polar. The sun is fairly strong at this time of the year though, so it'll be pleasant enough if you're out in it.

Further ahead is more reliant on how Nina phases. At present, it's looking like this changeable/wet weather pattern will remain until into perhaps the first half of May. Base state then suggests a transition to a more settled mid-month onwards, with a more pleasant June to look forward to. July & August are wholly dependent the tracking of the southern jet, current synoptic suggests wetter than average for the near continent - which isn't really good news for us as it proposes a lack of heights. A LOT of uncertainty about mid-late summer months though - so many influencing factors at play, more so than winter in fact. At this stage, I'd settle for an improving picture through May, then we'll take a view from that point onwards.

Just gotta curse the wet stuff for a little while longer though I'm afraid...
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There isn't a great deal worth of updates, only so far as to say that my forecast for the end of April/1st half of May is absolutely spot-on: changeable/wet weather pattern. We're still dug under this high-level trough, there is some indication for a height rise to our NW but not one which will herald the big pattern change that we're all after. It should, at least, be a little bit drier in the South, but the damp stuff remaining in the north.

June, one would hope, will be more pleasant - but we really do need some changes to start teleconnecting; base state, EN, MJO and AO composites. At the moment, there isn't a consistent enough signal across all indices to have much conviction that summer will suddenly show up on our doorstep come June. I doubt it'll be as wet, but whether we'll get warmth is another matter. July and August are still highly dependent on jet position, which - at present - remains, on a probability level, unfavourable.

The depressing factor is that, on the near continent, they're more than likely to have an absolute scorcher this summer - indeed, temperatures already climbing into the high 20's and touching 30 across some parts. It's all within touching distance, but the jet stream does a fantastic job of dissecting cold/hot and that's why we're stuck under this upper trough, feeding depression after depression our way. Our ideal scenario in this situation would be that the continental HP cell retrogresses west and starts to feed african winds over us - but, in order to get to that situation, we need height rises and - as yet - those are missing from our mix. One consolation I suppose, is that we're already in 'the nightmare scenario', so - chin up chaps - we can only improve from here!! :D
 
So the south west of France is looking good for the last 3 weeks in June!!! Sheikh you are a true weather GHod. (in fact the info i pass onto to my farmer friends is keenly sort after)
 
Yossarian said:
Bloody hell the internet is a scary place!

Anyone else heard of this?

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/bond-event-zero/
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Yep, bond events are of course possible - as is any cycle. What isn't accurately modelled though, is the impact of man, ie: all of the fossil fuels which we've been happily burning off, and how that impacts any cycle period. I've read in the past that cooldown rates might actually reach a state of equilibrium, therein causing a stagnation of the cycle for a while.

More likely to happen - possibly within our lifetime - is a polarity reversal in the Earth's magnetic core. There is already a weakening showing up in field measurements and it's accelerating alarmingly. Fairly new geophysics phenomenon, but one which has wide-reaching consequences for us all, most of which are not actually yet understood. The most recognisable effect though, would be that we'd all roast to fudge as the solar winds parch us. Beyond that, the unsettle equilibrium could act as a catalyst for things sudden climatic events such as a bond event.

But we're either due/over-due many things though, so I wouldn't worry too much about it. Man HAS changed the atmosphere over the last 50yrs or so, and little really is known about just how much that will impact the feedback mechanism which is inherent in all natures cycles.
 
The Bond Event is kickass if you like winter sports. Personally I reckon Yellowstone will take us out before we freeze.
 
I've just cleared all my debt. The coke and hooker party I could put on plastic at the moment is immense!
 
We will all be living on Mars by the time the sun explodes so don't worry. I just hope i get to meet the bird with 3 tits and sharon stone.
 
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