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FA Cup 5th Round - home to Palace

braineclipse said:
ipods/mp3 players have their shuffle function tweaked to not truly be random as truly random systems do not seem instinctively random to human beings.

Not seen actual numbers, but I imagine the funny thing is that this sort of draw happens exactly as often as one would expect it to.
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I wondered about this, and something interesting seems to have been happening since the start of the Premier League era. There's 64 teams in the 3rd round, so assuming about 20 top-flight teams, you'd expect to meet one of them roughly a third of the time, which, over the past 60 years (as far back as I went), is just about the observed rate.

If you consider the 2 sides scheduled to meet us in the league either side of 3rd round weekend, you'd expect the odds of our being drawn against one of those in the 3rd round to be 2 in 63 (say about 1 in 30), and if you extend the window to 2 league games either side, it'd be about 1 in 15.

Looking at the years 1956 to 1992, those numbers are borne out, but from then onwards, including this year, we'll have played the same side in the same week in league and cup 3rd round at a rate of 1 year in every 6. 1 in 4, if you make the window 2 league games either side. An interesting cluster of happenstances.
 
mudshark said:
I wondered about this, and something interesting seems to have been happening since the start of the Premier League era. There's 64 teams in the 3rd round, so assuming about 20 top-flight teams, you'd expect to meet one of them roughly a third of the time, which, over the past 60 years (as far back as I went), is just about the observed rate.

If you consider the 2 sides scheduled to meet us in the league either side of 3rd round weekend, you'd expect the odds of our being drawn against one of those in the 3rd round to be 2 in 63 (say about 1 in 30), and if you extend the window to 2 league games either side, it'd be about 1 in 15.

Looking at the years 1956 to 1992, those numbers are borne out, but from then onwards, including this year, we'll have played the same side in the same week in league and cup 3rd round at a rate of 1 year in every 6. 1 in 4, if you make the window 2 league games either side. An interesting cluster of happenstances.
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Wow.. Good job looking up the actual numbers :)
 
Fourth Round Proper draw numbers

1 Watford
2 West Bromwich Albion or Bristol City
3 West Ham United
4 Derby County
5 Exeter City or Liverpool
6 Tottenham Hotspur or Leicester City
7 Colchester United
8 Peterborough United
9 Northampton Town or Milton Keynes Dons
10 Arsenal
11 Newport County or Blackburn Rovers
12 Ipswich Town or Portsmouth
13 Bournemouth
14 Wycombe Wanderers or Aston Villa
15 Sheffield Wednesday
16 Oxford United
17 Walsall
18 Bury or Bradford City
19 Manchester United
20 Everton
21 Crystal Palace
22 Eastleigh or Bolton Wanderers
23 Nottingham Forest
24 Carlisle United or Yeovil Town
25 Chelsea
26 Stoke City
27 Leeds United
28 Cardiff City or Shrewsbury Town
29 Huddersfield Town or Reading
30 Burnley
31 Emirates Marketing Project
32 Hull City
 
Looking at the 10 replays (plus one match postponed), we have a strong chance of being televised, in fact with Lineker no doubt being the presenter it would not surprise me if the Beeb show our match again
BT may pick Liverpool v Exeter City.

As far as the 4th round draw goes. Once United,Chelsea and Arsenal have got their home draws against Walsall,Oxford United and Colchester United. It will be a trip to Eithad which awaits the winner of our match.
 
I don't want to hear about Bowie, get on with the draw. Whose brilliant idea was it to not do the draw last night as usual?
 
Jordinho said:
I don't want to hear about Bowie, get on with the draw. Whose brilliant idea was it to not do the draw last night as usual?
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Monday is actually the traditional day for the draw, iirc, though it used to be a lunch time thing


What channel is it on btw?
 
billyiddo said:
Monday is actually the traditional day for the draw, iirc, though it used to be a lunch time thing
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I remember it being before the last Sunday tie on many occasions, which was a bit silly. This is just crap though, a football draw in what seems to be an entertainment show of some sort.
 
Good draw. Should give us motivation to get past Leicester. A seemingly safe passage to the fith round. But it will, of course, give Leicester motivation too.
 
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