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Coronavirus

Finney Is Back said:
We haven’t locked down…. We have reintroduced some sensible measures to buy time for more data to come through.
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We haven't. Ireland have and our media is scaring people into wanting one. Theres talk of plan c's and plan d's.

If the amount of people in hospital starts peaking, then yes bring in more restrictions.
 
Diamond Lights said:
This is a good read that was posted just a few hours ago. Take it as gospel or call it flimflam, just sharing of interest:

https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-omicron-question

Also covers the question you've raised @Grays_1890 - but basically early evidence is that vaccine escape is happening
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Thanks, that shows just how complex this all is, and how much we don't yet know.
I waded through a LOT of it and there was still a lot more to read and I gave up.

A key interesting point he makes is that if you have 2 viruses that are equally deadly in a test tube and infectious except:
One makes you feel awful from day one and you get huge unignorable sores all over your face so you can't/won't go out
vs
One you feel pretty much fine for the first week and then you start feeling bad

They are the same in all other terms but the second is far, far more of a worry for obvious reasons. The first one would be way more scary and newsworthy at first, but the second is far more deadly.
 
Bullet said:
Thanks, that shows just how complex this all is, and how much we don't yet know.
I waded through a LOT of it and there was still a lot more to read and I gave up.

A key interesting point he makes is that if you have 2 viruses that are equally deadly in a test tube and infectious except:
One makes you feel awful from day one and you get huge unignorable sores all over your face so you can't/won't go out
vs
One you feel pretty much fine for the first week and then you start feeling bad

They are the same in all other terms but the second is far, far more of a worry for obvious reasons. The first one would be way more scary and newsworthy at first, but the second is far more deadly.
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Yes exactly, because the second one will lead to expoential growth.

The R0 is really what's mindblowing about Omicron. Being in a room with 10 vaccinated people, with Delta, 1 was likely to be infected with Covid. Now it's 4. Just incredible mutation change from the virus. Hopefully to a more asymptomatic or less lethal variant, but that growth rate is staggering.
 
Mikey10 said:
Lol.

I'm all for getting back to normality - and I've worked in crowded classrooms for the best part of the last two years, so life has largely continued to feel reasonably normal to me.

I do chortle at the endless blind optimism of some on here, though. We've gone from 'Cases are falling, it's all over' a couple of months ago; through 'Almost everyone has now been exposed, so there is no one left to infect'; past 'No one will be re-infected - those who had SARS still have immunity 15 years later'; to 'It's a milder variant and it won't affect hospitilisations.'

Unfortunately, as the last fortnight has shown, normality is still some way off.
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I think the comments here are quite balanced personally. Obviously there are some who are less willing to give up their civil liberties more than others, but I find it quite refreshing to the endless doom mongering in the news media and on Twitter. The news has a negativity bias at the best of times but I find their narrative during covid as a whole has been appalling. What percentage of people who catch this disease die or end up in hospital seriously ill? You’d think it was 50%+ the way they talk. Most people in hospital right now with covid I’d be willing to be are unvaccinated but that’s not the narrative in the media.
 
Finney Is Back said:
We haven’t locked down…. We have reintroduced some sensible measures to buy time for more data to come through.
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There are calls from the media to lockdown any time a new variant surfaces or cases start to creep up. I fully agree we can’t be reckless and measures have to be introduced but the economy will become a basket case if we lock down any time a variant comes into play.
 
Diamond Lights said:
Yes exactly, because the second one will lead to expoential growth.

The R0 is really what's mindblowing about Omicron. Being in a room with 10 vaccinated people, with Delta, 1 was likely to be infected with Covid. Now it's 4. Just incredible mutation change from the virus. Hopefully to a more asymptomatic or less lethal variant, but that growth rate is staggering.
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That's not quite true. It's infecting an average of 4 people over the course of the 10 days you are infectious. You still need a reasonable level of exposure (closer than a meter for more than 15 minutes etc.).
 
The medicine professor at Oxford University was saying this morning that the two main symptoms of Omicron are a stuffy nose and backache. So basically being over 40 in winter.
 
Lilbaz said:
If the amount of people in hospital starts peaking, then yes bring in more restrictions.
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During a period of exponential growth the problem with that approach is that by the time the hospitals begin to be overwhelmed it is already way, way too late.

That is what the scientific community and the government are currently worried about.
 
Mikey10 said:
During a period of exponential growth the problem with that approach is that by the time the hospitals begin to be overwhelmed it is already way, way too late.

That is what the scientific community and the government are currently worried about.
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Thats why you look at data from a country already effected. To see what it's actually doing.
 
This Christmas is going to be a tragi-comedy.

A positive test is considerably more disruptive than is actually getting this bloody thing if you are vaccinated.
 
Mikey10 said:
During a period of exponential growth the problem with that approach is that by the time the hospitals begin to be overwhelmed it is already way, way too late.

That is what the scientific community and the government are currently worried about.
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We have to get the balance right though. We can’t and shouldn’t lock down if hospitals aren’t overrun and overwhelmed. We can’t keep locking down and printing money any time a new variant comes along. The alternative is the people that are so desperate for a lockdown are more than welcome to lock down themselves and never leave the house again, that way the rest of us can carry on with our lives, responsibly of course whilst adhering to any measures.
 
Gutter Boy said:
That's not quite true. It's infecting an average of 4 people over the course of the 10 days you are infectious. You still need a reasonable level of exposure (closer than a meter for more than 15 minutes etc.).
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Yes but in real world scenarios, it'll be more right? We don't have restrictions in the UK. So, in a Pub, Bar, Restaurant, House Party the weekend just gone. The growth of Omicron will be insane, because one infected person is going to spread it wider than just four people, especially as a large proportion of UK public has yet to receive a booster.

If you had a small house party today, 20 people, one person arrives with Omicron, you'll probably have more than just 4 leaving with Corona. And that R0 of 4 is based on fully vaccinated, the R0 of Omicron pre-Covid is considered to be like +9 as a minimum.
 
Lilbaz said:
Thats why you look at data from a country already effected. To see what it's actually doing.
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There isn't really that data available yet.

Anecdotally, the information coming out of SA seems to suggest the strain is milder - but you can't base the public health policy of a nation on anecdotal evidence from another country when the consequences have the potential to be so profound. SA also has economic and other reasons to be painting a positive picture, so scientists and government in the UK will have to apply a sceptical eye.

Hospitalisations up by 308 today (and up 10.4% on the week up to last Saturday) - that, of course, will be people who first got ill a fortnight or so ago, before the big increases of the last two days, and the weeks ahead.

Lilbaz said:
Be interesting to know if delta cases have fallen as omicron rises. As we saw when delta overtook alpha.
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Jenny Harries said today that the two will run together this winter - with Delta continuing to move particularly through the unvaccinated and children under 12.
Edit: Chris Whitty has just said the same thing in the press conference.
 
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