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Coronavirus

Robspur12 said:
Not sure what you are trying to interpret with that graph. Daily Cases are still much higher than they were at any time during the previous COVID waves. There is no sense of relief to be gained from that chart. Goes back to what I was saying earlier, everyone presents info as if they are experts in COVID or data analysis.

Edit: I am also aware in the lead up to Christmas that there are a lot of people testing positive on home LFTs but not following up with PCR tests to stay off the Gov radar. So cases are even higher. What we know: Omicron is highly infectious, significantly more so than previous strains. Even if it is milder that infectivity will by sheer number of people infected likely to result in an increase in hospitalisations. There is nothing else certain at the moment.
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Is that certain?
Not every illness leads to hospitalisation.
 
Robspur12 said:
I have not seen any sensible commentators making claims about death rates. But it is true in some areas of London the case rates are doubling in a fairly short period of time.

But what we can say is we are a long way from being out of the woods which is the suggestion in the post from @Gutter Boy. I am not advocating a lock down but I am surprised that the government have not put forward some sensible restrictions such as reducing attendances at big events.

Edit: I am not surprised actually. Not when we have a government looking nervously over their shoulders at their MPs rather than putting the country first. Even Sweden are putting in more restrictions than us
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Your right, that quote didn't come from anyone sensible, it came from SAGE.
6000 deaths a day for January is 186000, more than covid in almost two years, almost a third of the uk annual death toll.
If they honestly believe that and politicians are delaying lock down they should resign and go public to shame the government and force action.
Or is their pay to important to them?
 
glasgowspur said:
Is that certain?
Not every illness leads to hospitalisation.
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No it doesn’t and numbers are not certain, it was poor wording from me, but playing the percentages if omicron is even half as virulent it’s greater infectivity will very likely lead to more hospitalisations because it just hits more people. That’s what Chris Whitty is saying I do believe him.
 
glasgowspur said:
Your right, that quote didn't come from anyone sensible, it came from SAGE.
6000 deaths a day for January is 186000, more than covid in almost two years, almost a third of the uk annual death toll.
If they honestly believe that and politicians are delaying lock down they should resign and go public to shame the government and force action.
Or is their pay to important to them?
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Yes we’ve never had that number of deaths from covid itself. It sounds utterly barmy. But I don’t know that they actually said this or is it what the media are reporting? As I said the only tsunami at the moment is the amount of covid info and “experts” out there making their opinions heard.
 
Robspur12 said:
I have not seen any sensible commentators making claims about death rates. But it is true in some areas of London the case rates are doubling in a fairly short period of time.

But what we can say is we are a long way from being out of the woods which is the suggestion in the post from @Gutter Boy. I am not advocating a lock down but I am surprised that the government have not put forward some sensible restrictions such as reducing attendances at big events.

Edit: I am not surprised actually. Not when we have a government looking nervously over their shoulders at their MPs rather than putting the country first. Even Sweden are putting in more restrictions than us
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Sage.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...d-infections-omicron-deaths-restrictions-sage
 
Robspur12 said:
Again that article is reported in a very sensational manner. It’s agenda driven journalism. I have absolutely no idea what were the parameters around those models. The ranges are huge.
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Its over 2 million deaths a year, just from omicron.
If they believe that then they need to act.
If they don't believe it they need to call out the modelling.
If they didn't say it they need to call out the for driving fear and hysteria.
 
glasgowspur said:
Its over 2 million deaths a year, just from omicron.
If they believe that then they need to act.
If they don't believe it they need to call out the modelling.
If they didn't say it they need to call out the for driving fear and hysteria.
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It’s not the job of Sage to make public pronouncements. They are advisors to the government. Just look at the criticism aimed at Chris Whitty for speaking when invited to do so at a Downing Street press conference. I have no idea about the parameters they are modelling. What if the models were theoretically looking at x2 or x4 the virulence? Without seeing their report I couldn’t comment.
 
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Robspur12 said:
Again that article is reported in a very sensational manner. It’s agenda driven journalism. I have absolutely no idea what were the parameters around those models. The ranges are huge.
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Yes it is. But it is shaping public opinion, which puts pressure on the politicians to do something. Which we've seen wales and scotland do.

The question is, is the danger real? In real world data are we seeing something that requires more tougher measures?
 
Lilbaz said:
Yes it is. But it is shaping public opinion, which puts pressure on the politicians to do something. Which we've seen wales and scotland do.

The question is, is the danger real? In real world data are we seeing something that requires more tougher measures?
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That's the million dollar question! In terms of the current trends and ignoring the sensationalist stuff, on balance yes we need to dial up slightly to curb the number of infections or to coin a phrase "flatten the curve." It's not just about hospitalisations though. It is also the effect on the infrastructure of the country if so many people are either unfit for work or self isolating. We have to find a way to reduce transmission. That may happen as more of the population are boostered and it should certainly be helped along with some additional controls on mixing in large groups and rules on face coverings extended to more settings. But it is not an exact science. I guess we may l have to accept some more restrictions in Jan.
 
Robspur12 said:
That's the million dollar question! In terms of the current trends and ignoring the sensationalist stuff, on balance yes we need to dial up slightly to curb the number of infections or to coin a phrase "flatten the curve." It's not just about hospitalisations though. It is also the effect on the infrastructure of the country if so many people are either unfit for work or self isolating. We have to find a way to reduce transmission. That may happen as more of the population are boostered and it should certainly be helped along with some additional controls on mixing in large groups and rules on face coverings extended to more settings. But it is not an exact science. I guess we may l have to accept some more restrictions in Jan.
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Number of daily cases have fallen the last couple of days. Yes many people are isolating which could be helped by shortening the isolation period from 10 to 7 days.

The real question is, does omicron make people severely ill? If it doesn't, then instead of trying to stop it. We should let it go.
 
Robspur12 said:
That's the million dollar question! In terms of the current trends and ignoring the sensationalist stuff, on balance yes we need to dial up slightly to curb the number of infections or to coin a phrase "flatten the curve." It's not just about hospitalisations though. It is also the effect on the infrastructure of the country if so many people are either unfit for work or self isolating. We have to find a way to reduce transmission. That may happen as more of the population are boostered and it should certainly be helped along with some additional controls on mixing in large groups and rules on face coverings extended to more settings. But it is not an exact science. I guess we may l have to accept some more restrictions in Jan.
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As many businesses close for two weeks over the festive season is this not actually the best time to have the wave.
Approached and handled correctly (hypothetical, we all know that the government can't and joe public won't act sensibly) this should be a blessing.
What would you rather have, no amazon delivery of tat for two weeks, or normality?
No home delivery of take away food, or being able to visit family and friends?
Won't happen of course, but there is more than one way out of this.
 
will dig out the article if i can find it, but a study found previous strains were infectious 2-3 days after contact. Omicron can be infectious from 24hrs later, making massive difference in 'test and trace' ability. Really a game changer this variant.
 
glasgowspur said:
As many businesses close for two weeks over the festive season is this not actually the best time to have the wave.
Approached and handled correctly (hypothetical, we all know that the government can't and joe public won't act sensibly) this should be a blessing.
What would you rather have, no amazon delivery of tat for two weeks, or normality?
No home delivery of take away food, or being able to visit family and friends?
Won't happen of course, but there is more than one way out of this.
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I think you are right, now is not the time to introduce measures given that businesses will close down anyway and the importance of seeing loved ones at Christmas. However, we should have done it before the numbers rose to the level they are currently because the high numbers going into the Christmas break with all the mixing is concerning. As I said extend face coverings to more settings, limit attendance at big events and provide proper financial support to hospitality.
 
Diamond Lights said:
will dig out the article if i can find it, but a study found previous strains were infectious 2-3 days after contact. Omicron can be infectious from 24hrs later, making massive difference in 'test and trace' ability. Really a game changer this variant.
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Think the tracing bit went out the window months ago.
 
Diamond Lights said:
will dig out the article if i can find it, but a study found previous strains were infectious 2-3 days after contact. Omicron can be infectious from 24hrs later, making massive difference in 'test and trace' ability. Really a game changer this variant.
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Test and trace only works with very small numbers. There's no point at all when every 5th person you pass in the street has it.
 
Robspur12 said:
I think you are right, now is not the time to introduce measures given that businesses will close down anyway and the importance of seeing loved ones at Christmas. However, we should have done it before the numbers rose to the level they are currently because the high numbers going into the Christmas break with all the mixing is concerning. As I said extend face coverings to more settings, limit attendance at big events and provide proper financial support to hospitality.
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I don't understand the big event logic. It can only pass from the person who came into the event with it to the people they are close to (closer than a meter for more than 15 minutes). It's not like it fans out like Chinese whispers through the entire crowd. I.e. infectious people would infect about the same number of people at a small event as at a large one.
 
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