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Coronavirus

Lilbaz said:
What about in places where omicron has already peaked and is declining now? Camden and islington are 2 areas where daily cases have been falling the last few days for example.
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Quite simply there is no need for restrictions, deep down we all know this all it will do is cause far more damage than good, same with the last lockdown !!
 
Lilbaz said:
What about in places where omicron has already peaked and is declining now? Camden and islington are 2 areas where daily cases have been falling the last few days for example.
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London tends to empty over Christmas, which could be a factor in this.

Certainly some promising signs, but still too early to get too excited imho.
 
Mikey10 said:
London tends to empty over Christmas, which could be a factor in this.

Certainly some promising signs, but still too early to get too excited imho.
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Camden cases peaked at over 300 fallen consistently for 4 days to around 175. Islington was over 400 now just over 200. In the same time frame. That is more than people going away for xmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

(Only goes to the 18th so you'd think would be even less now).
 
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Lilbaz said:
What about in places where omicron has already peaked and is declining now? Camden and islington are 2 areas where daily cases have been falling the last few days for example.
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Both South Africa and London omicron has seemed to do a very sharp inverted V peak. It's like it spreads rapidly, but that there's then a limited susceptible population somehow. It seems to hit a sudden wall, rather than going exponential
 
Gutter Boy said:
Both South Africa and London omicron has seemed to do a very sharp inverted V peak. It's like it spreads rapidly, but that there's then a limited susceptible population somehow. It seems to hit a sudden wall, rather than going exponential
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Lets hope the rest of the country follows the same path.
 
Gutter Boy said:
It can only pass from the person who came into the event with it to the people they are close to (closer than a meter for more than 15 minutes).
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This isn't true, and you keep saying it.
If someone with CV comes and talks to you and sprays you with breath/spittle. Or coughs on you. Or gives you something they were holding, all can transfer CV.

Those videos earlier with thousands of Spurs fans in the stairwell singing and chanting at the top of their voices, spraying the crowd with swirling breathy vapour...

For instance
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-19-infection-who-do-not-live-with-the-person
https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/coronavirus-covid-19-self-isolating-and-close-contacts
A close contact can be:
  • Anyone who lives in the same household as someone with COVID-19 symptoms or who has tested positive for COVID-19
  • anyone who has had any of the following types of contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19 with a PCR test:
    • face-to-face contact including being coughed on or having a face-to-face conversation within one metre
    • skin-to-skin physical contact for any length of time
    • been within one metre for one minute or longer without face-to-face contact
    • sexual contacts
    • been within two metres of someone for more than 15 minutes (either as a one-off contact, or added up together over one day)
    • travelled in the same vehicle
 
They are still going on with this 'half the severity but twice the cases is the same thing' flimflam. Clearly it's not. Someone cutting their hand off doing DIY is different pressure on health resources compared to 100 people pricking their finger. If everyone gets it half as sever (as opposed to half nothing, half everything), then it's fudging in the streets time

The important metric is severe cases only
 
Gutter Boy said:
They are still going on with this 'half the severity but twice the cases is the same thing' flimflam. Clearly it's not. Someone cutting their hand off doing DIY is different pressure on health resources compared to 100 people pricking their finger. If everyone gets it half as sever (as opposed to half nothing, half everything), then it's fudging in the streets time

The important metric is severe cases only
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No it's not - that's GCSE level thinking.

The import metric is hospital admissions Vs available medical resources.
Hospital admissions = all admissions to a hospital. Not just for covid.
Available medical resources = is reduced by staff isolating.
A delta severe vol does not directly correlate to an Omicron one.

If covid continues as it is, we'll probably get to a position next year where a mild case of COVID doesn't require isolation.
It is right to keep it this time because of the unknowns around Omicron when it first started and the minimal immunity.

We've now shown if a similar situation arises we could could get everyone jabbed up in 2-3 weeks, or certainly enough to make it manageable.
It's definitely still possible to get through without restrictions, but it'll be right on the line because of the timings involved - Xmas and new year & the couple of weeks delay in getting the booster program out.

There will need to be a change in NHS staffing policy too - London is always going to be the pinch point of high infections (isolation) and lower vax rates; to alleviate that NHS staff will need to operate like the Police and freely move between area on a short notice demand led model with public protection/heath as it's focus.
 
SO what is the current trend then? over 100,000 cases but hospital admissions are level and deaths dropping from what I saw yesterday? Granted was a quick look at the stats so sure there is someone on here with better insights
 
Short term Staff resourcing headaches for the few thousand critical care beds in the country is nowhere near as important as will be a newly dominant ‘mild’ variant in the very near mid term.
 
Grays_1890 said:
SO what is the current trend then? over 100,000 cases but hospital admissions are level and deaths dropping from what I saw yesterday? Granted was a quick look at the stats so sure there is someone on here with better insights
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Hospital admissions have risen in london but many are incidental (people there for other reasons but tested positive for covid). Although cases may have peaked already in london and are now falling. Early days though. But not looking too bad if the rest of the country follows.
 
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