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Coronavirus

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Lilbaz said:
Tell them in sa. The admissions so far have been mostly incidental. They are not there for covid, they just have been tested when admitted and found positive. Majority have not required oxygen. Yes we need a couple of weeks to fully assess, but early indicators are very promissing.

https://www.lusakatimes.com/2021/12/05/345427/
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we had a similar start to the 2nd or 3rd wave wave in the uk, cases went exponential and hospitalisations and subsequent deaths remained low for quite some time, yet increased aggressively.It’s too early, simple as that. Let’s hope it is milder.
 
Hashegotthesackyet? said:
we had a similar start to the 2nd or 3rd wave wave in the uk, cases went exponential and hospitalisations and subsequent deaths remained low for quite some time, yet increased aggressively.It’s too early, simple as that. Let’s hope it is milder.
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The doctors in sa have said this is not like previous waves. Read the report or watch the vid.
 
Hashegotthesackyet? said:
It’s that simple eh? Time will tell.
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Did you even watch the vid or read the report?

Let me give you the highlights.
No increase in the number of patients in hospitals.
There has been a rise in the number of patients in hospital with covid. But 76% of those cases are incidental, they were admitted for reasons other than covid. Most didn't realise they had it.
70% of covid patients don't require oxygen. This is the same as would normally be expected without covid.
Only 1 double vaccinated person that had covid required oxygen. That was because they had copd.
Waste water checks showed that the wave in one city was already as high as previous waves the sample was taken about 2 weeks ago (medcram did a vid).
Average hospital stay is 2.8 days compared to 8.5 days in previous waves.
No increase in deaths.
The doctors that have worked through previous waves say this is totally different. Very mild disease.

Could this change? yes. Everyone could drop dead tomorrow.

But everything points to this being mild. Don't know why you have a problem accepting that.
 
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Lilbaz said:
Did you even watch the vid or read the report?

Let me give you the highlights.
No increase in the number of patients in hospitals.
There has been a rise in the number of patients in hospital with covid. But 76% of those cases are incidental, they were admitted for reasons other than covid. Most didn't realise they had it.
70% of covid patients don't require oxygen. This is the same as would normally be expected without covid.
Only 1 double vaccinated person that had covid required oxygen. That was because they had copd.
Waste water checks showed that the wave in one city was already as high as previous waves the sample was taken about 2 weeks ago (medcram did a vid).
Average hospital stay is 2.8 days compared to 8.5 days in previous waves.
No increase in deaths.
The doctors that have worked through previous waves say this is totally different. Very mild disease.

Could this change? yes. Everyone could drop dead tomorrow.

But everything points to this being mild. Don't know why you have a problem accepting that.
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tbf I didn’t read much of your post let alone the links. Not enough time has elapsed for the data so far to be meaningful. It’s pretty obvious.
 
Antibodies levels aren't meant to stay high - that's how they work. The idea of permanent boosters just seems inappropriate. Once this winter is out there needs to be more focus on monitoring the longevity of memory cell immunity.
 
If south africas hospitals start to get stretched that would be bad news. At the moment there has been no increase in the amount of people in hospital. There are plenty of people in hospital with covid. As there are outside. But there has been no increase in the number of people in hospital.
Nigeria has had omicron since october at least and there are no reports of hospitals under stress there either. Netherlands 6% of cases are now omicron. Instead of increasing pressure on hospitals as delta has been doing. Hospitalisations have now levelled off.

We have 3 times as many people suffering from colds at the moment than delta (according to tim spector), we're not worried about that. Because a cold doesn't increase pressure on the health service.

New data may come in the next week or so that changes things but so far it's looking good.

If it's not mild we should see an increase in deaths over the next 2 weeks in south africa. Can't see it if the amount of people in hospital hasn't increased though.
 
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Remember 76% of the omicron patients are incidental. They are there for other reasons than covid.
 
Lilbaz said:
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Remember 76% of the omicron patients are incidental. They are there for other reasons than covid.
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Well, yes and no. I think what you mean is they are there and do not appear to show a requirement for breathing intervention. We don't necessarily know the underlying symtoms causing them to be hospitalised are not linked to Omicron.

What you're interpreting with the data without evidence is that Omicron is not severe, which is only true regarding ventilation that we know of.

If 90% of the Omicron cases are being admitted to hospital because of blood clots, or heart or brain issues, well, that would be a problem no? Great, we dont have to worry about ventilation requirements, but we may face other issues, and that's the unknown right now. Obvs i'm not saying that's the case, but my point is, it's too early to know.

Conversely, if 90% of the admissions were because of a broken leg/arm then that would be something. Fingers crossed severity is lower.

But as other statto's have pointed out, if the R rate is so much more infectious, take the UK for example we have around 5 million unvaccinated, that assumes still a large uptick in admissions into hospital at some point.
 
Diamond Lights said:
Well, yes and no. I think what you mean is they are there and do not appear to show a requirement for breathing intervention. We don't necessarily know the underlying symtoms causing them to be hospitalised are not linked to Omicron.

What you're interpreting with the data without evidence is that Omicron is not severe, which is only true regarding ventilation that we know of.

If 90% of the Omicron cases are being admitted to hospital because of blood clots, or heart or brain issues, well, that would be a problem no? Great, we dont have to worry about ventilation requirements, but we may face other issues, and that's the unknown right now. Obvs i'm not saying that's the case, but my point is, it's too early to know.

Conversely, if 90% of the admissions were because of a broken leg/arm then that would be something. Fingers crossed severity is lower.

But as other statto's have pointed out, if the R rate is so much more infectious, take the UK for example we have around 5 million unvaccinated, that assumes still a large uptick in admissions into hospital at some point.
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The report said they are incidental not me. 76% of patients admitted are incidental and not there for covid (children were admitted as aprecaution). 70% of patients with covid did not require oxygen. The amount of people in hospital was not effected. In fact Gauteng the epicenter of the outbreak in sa, had the lowest amount of people in hospital and lowest death rate from covid of any region in sa. If omicron was causing strokes or heart attacks the total number of people in hospital would be spiking. This could change. But so far it's fine.

Everyone in the uk has been exposed. The ons antibody study showed 94% of the english population had some form of immunity in august (with waning antibodies it was probably higher). We've had millions of cases and vaccinations since then. We've got over a million infected now.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...s/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies
 
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