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Coronavirus

johnola said:
Oh blimey sorry to hear that. I think you are the first person I have heard report on the booster jab too.
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Cheers…but don’t feel too sorry for me. Gave me an excuse to lie on the sofa all day reading and watching documentaries, whilst necking paracetamol every four hours. :D
 
glorygloryeze said:
How about if there are 10,000 children who got measles; 9,500 of them had been vaccinated, 500 had not been.
500 of these children died;

Scenario 1: of those who died 450 had been vaccinated, whilst 50 had not been.

Scenario 2: of those who died 50 had been vaccinated, whilst 450 had not been.

If the vaccine was effective, which of the above scenarios would you expect?
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Sorry to be rude glorygloryeze but you clearly don't have a good grasp of the maths.
Assuming* each subset of kids is roughly the same in terms of fitness, age, health, gender etc.
Either scenario could happen, depending on how deadly the disease is and how efficacious the vaccine is.

In scenario 1: Vaccinated deaths = 450/9500 = 4.7% death rate and unvaccinated deaths = 50/500 = 10% death rate, so vaccination clearly works and more than halves your risk of death.
In scenario 2: Vaccinated deaths = 50/9500 = 0.5% death rate and unvaccinated deaths = 450/500 = 90% death rate, so vaccination is incredibly powerful as almost everyone without it died, yet with it only 0.5% died!

You don't seem to grasp that if 99.9999% of people are vaxxed, then almost everyone in hospital would be vaxxed.

*This is another fatal flaw in your reasoning. Nearly all the decrepit old giffers have been vaxxed, so of course the people dying from the disease (i.e. decrepit old giffers) have been vaxxed... that does not mean the vax doesn't work. Surely you can see that?
 
Been thinking. We're not getting herd immunity. Hospitalisations and deaths have been pretty flat for a few months now. What if this is the new normal? That we will have roughly 10,000 people in hospital at any point and 100 or so deaths a day. Like a year long flu (delta seems so transmissable it's less seasonal than the other variants). Pretty depressing.
 
Lilbaz said:
Been thinking. We're not getting herd immunity. Hospitalisations and deaths have been pretty flat for a few months now. What if this is the new normal? That we will have roughly 10,000 people in hospital at any point and 100 or so deaths a day. Like a year long flu (delta seems so transmissable it's less seasonal than the other variants). Pretty depressing.
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Not quite. Every time people get covid, you get it much less worse. The vaccines have now taken the first big hit for most. So the endgame is everyone getting it every year or two, but at worst it's indistinguishable from a cold.

It's not a bad virus, it's just a novel one. So once the population has had enough exposure to it, it effectively disappears (though technically it doesn't)
 
Gutter Boy said:
Not quite. Every time people get covid, you get it much less worse. The vaccines have now taken the first big hit for most. So the endgame is everyone getting it every year or two, but at worst it's indistinguishable from a cold.

It's not a bad virus, it's just a novel one. So once the population has had enough exposure to it, it effectively disappears (though technically it doesn't)
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Yet everyone has already been exposed. I think in august 94% of the population had antibodies. This has stayed roughly the same and even dropped due to them waning. Yet hospitalisations and deaths haven't fallen. They've stayed roughly the same.
We're assuming that it will get milder. But what if we're wrong?

Hope we're not. Obviously.
 
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Bullet said:
Sorry to be rude glorygloryeze but you clearly don't have a good grasp of the maths.
Assuming* each subset of kids is roughly the same in terms of fitness, age, health, gender etc.
Either scenario could happen, depending on how deadly the disease is and how efficacious the vaccine is.

In scenario 1: Vaccinated deaths = 450/9500 = 4.7% death rate and unvaccinated deaths = 50/500 = 10% death rate, so vaccination clearly works and more than halves your risk of death.
In scenario 2: Vaccinated deaths = 50/9500 = 0.5% death rate and unvaccinated deaths = 450/500 = 90% death rate, so vaccination is incredibly powerful as almost everyone without it died, yet with it only 0.5% died!

You don't seem to grasp that if 99.9999% of people are vaxxed, then almost everyone in hospital would be vaxxed.

*This is another fatal flaw in your reasoning. Nearly all the decrepit old giffers have been vaxxed, so of course the people dying from the disease (i.e. decrepit old giffers) have been vaxxed... that does not mean the vax doesn't work. Surely you can see that?
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Lilbaz said:
Yet everyone has already been exposed. I think in august 94% of the population had antibodies. This has stayed roughly the same and even dropped due to them waning. Yet hospitalisations and deaths haven't fallen. They've stayed roughly the same.
We're assuming that it will get milder. But what if we're wrong?

Hope we're not. Obviously.
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It's not antibodies that help with longer-term immunity, that's the T-cells. I think they reckon people who have had real world exposure have something like 26 times the level of them (and with a broader range), compared to those just vaccinated. The hospitalisations and deaths are also skewed massively by the unvaccinated.

I see the way out of this is to keep exposing the healthy to it while antibodies levels are so high (they will never be this high again), and basically let that growing collective resilience just completely blunt it. Its the only way out of it really.
 
Gutter Boy said:
It's not antibodies that help with longer-term immunity, that's the T-cells. I think they reckon people who have had real world exposure have something like 26 times the level of them (and with a broader range), compared to those just vaccinated. The hospitalisations and deaths are also skewed massively by the unvaccinated.

I see the way out of this is to keep exposing the healthy to it while antibodies levels are so high (they will never be this high again), and basically let that growing collective resilience just completely blunt it. Its the only way out of it really.
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Yes tcells kill infected cells and produce antibodies. Antibodies are the first line of defence though. With them waning it means you are more likely to get an infection. As you get older your tcells are not as fast at reacting to infection.

Flu is not novel. Yet for the last hundred years every winter there are thousands of flu deaths. Even with vaccinations. This well become the same. It will to a certain degree anyway. This is the endemic equilibrium. I hope it is lower than it is now. But as i've said it has been flat with everyone in the country being exposed by now.
 
The symptom study has seen a slight uptick of new cases today 64,810. People currently infected has fallen nicely though to 1,002,687.
 
parklane1 said:
All my three jabs were Pfizer. No problems with the first two but the booster has kicked my arse however i also had the Flu jab with the 3rd one so it could have been that has done it.
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I had Pfizer for my first 2 jabs and not due my booster until January.

However I had my flu vaccine last Friday which has totally wiped me out these past 4 days.
 
SteveAWOL said:
I had Pfizer for my first 2 jabs and not due my booster until January.

However I had my flu vaccine last Friday which has totally wiped me out these past 4 days.
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Yeah my mum had a bad reaction to the flu jab this year. Lost strength in one of her legs for a week. All 3 covid shots she was fine.
 
SteveAWOL said:
I had Pfizer for my first 2 jabs and not due my booster until January.

However I had my flu vaccine last Friday which has totally wiped me out these past 4 days.
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I have never had a flu jab untill last week but because the gave me the choice to have it along with my booster for Covid i took it, do not think i would do so again to be honest.
 
Lilbaz said:
Yes tcells kill infected cells and produce antibodies. Antibodies are the first line of defence though. With them waning it means you are more likely to get an infection. As you get older your tcells are not as fast at reacting to infection.

Flu is not novel. Yet for the last hundred years every winter there are thousands of flu deaths. Even with vaccinations. This well become the same. It will to a certain degree anyway. This is the endemic equilibrium. I hope it is lower than it is now. But as i've said it has been flat with everyone in the country being exposed by now.
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Exactly this.
It will probably take another year or two to reach normalised levels - you have to kill off the old and vulnerable first.
The vaccines will keep protecting as much as possible and exposure will create immunity over time as will mutations as covid changes to keep itself alive.
Fast forward five years, someone dying of COVID will be normal.
Fast forward ten years, someone dying of COVID will be the same as flu in terms of thought process.
Over time the covid strain and vaccine correlation will reach a sort of equilibrium too.
But in answer to your first point above - yes, we are now In normal. Covid is part of society, people will die, we'll probably have to wear masks a fair bit and for a few years get a test before traveling anywhere.
 
monkeybarry said:
Exactly this.
It will probably take another year or two to reach normalised levels - you have to kill off the old and vulnerable first.
The vaccines will keep protecting as much as possible and exposure will create immunity over time as will mutations as covid changes to keep itself alive.
Fast forward five years, someone dying of COVID will be normal.
Fast forward ten years, someone dying of COVID will be the same as flu in terms of thought process.
Over time the covid strain and vaccine correlation will reach a sort of equilibrium too.
But in answer to your first point above - yes, we are now In normal. Covid is part of society, people will die, we'll probably have to wear masks a fair bit and for a few years get a test before traveling anywhere.
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It will mean we have to expand the nhs though. There will be overlap with flu, as in people catching and dying from one won't be a patient to the other. But there will be more hospitalisations each year.

As you say it will probably be a couple of years till we see properly how we stand. But learning to live with covid might be a bit painful.
 
Ok finally the dashboard updated. Cases although week on week are higher are coming down again day by day. Some of that may have been half term finishing. Also wales had a problem last week of reporting cases. So may mean last week a bit lower this week a bit higher.
 
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