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Coronavirus

Hotshot-Tottenham said:
First dose.

An achievement without doubt but they’re not full vaccinations until the second dose is done.

We need to vigilant of the govt happily and glibly spinning that fact.
Click to expand...

I posted the bit in italics below on 31Dec, note the bit in bold which implies one dose is plenty. Depends on the vaccine though I guess, which one are we talking about here? And there was also talk of only giving 1 dose to X people rather than giving 2 doses to X/2 people... I haven't followed this closely enough to know if that is the plan/case??? Anyone know?



Many are citing a figure of 52% for protection after the first dose. That isn't useful.

The 52% value is a useless AVERAGE from the Pfizer trial data, for the 21 days between the first and second doses.

Until day 10 the placebo and trial groups have very similar data. This is *expected* - no vaccine has an effect until days later, when the immune system has had time to develop a response.

Looking at the day 0 to day 10 period there is an efficacy of 10%.
Looking at the day 10 to day 22 period there is an efficacy of 86% (+/- confidence intervals).

The 52% figure is a mush of those two completely different scenarios. It's not useful. People shouldn't be citing it in this context.

86% is a much more accurate and relevant figure.
 
Bullet said:
I posted the bit in italics below on 31Dec, note the bit in bold which implies one dose is plenty. Depends on the vaccine though I guess, which one are we talking about here? And there was also talk of only giving 1 dose to X people rather than giving 2 doses to X/2 people... I haven't followed this closely enough to know if that is the plan/case??? Anyone know?

Many are citing a figure of 52% for protection after the first dose. That isn't useful.

The 52% value is a useless AVERAGE from the Pfizer trial data, for the 21 days between the first and second doses.

Until day 10 the placebo and trial groups have very similar data. This is *expected* - no vaccine has an effect until days later, when the immune system has had time to develop a response.

Looking at the day 0 to day 10 period there is an efficacy of 10%.
Looking at the day 10 to day 22 period there is an efficacy of 86% (+/- confidence intervals).

The 52% figure is a mush of those two completely different scenarios. It's not useful. People shouldn't be citing it in this context.

86% is a much more accurate and relevant figure.
Click to expand...
Here’s the graph from Pfizer’s phase 3 vaccine trial which (some of) the press seem to be (deliberately) misinterpreting...

https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

“The VE for the prevention of COVID-19 disease after Dose 1 is 82% (95% CI: 75.6%, 86.9%), in the all-available efficacy population. Based on the number of cases accumulated after Dose 1 and before Dose 2, there does seem to be some protection against COVID-19 disease following one dose; however, these data do not provide information about longer term protection beyond 21 days after a single dose.”

6BB6AB2A-56C9-4505-A66F-FFE0F4D1380A.jpeg
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
 
Last edited:
Maybe the answer is between the two.
In France, all shops are open(ex restaurants) until the curfew - now 6pm. After that you must have a self cert to justify why you’re out in case picked up by the police.
Businesses can still trade(9-10hrs) and you have lots of time in the open to alleviate any isolation/mental health issues from being indoors.
 
LutonSpurs said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1351100612793020417

For all the average deaths are lower tossers.
Click to expand...
To put that into some perspective, here are the years (from ONS data) where the deaths per 100,000 of population were higher than in 2020:

2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980....

...and all the other years for all of history.
 
Looking at the vaccincation data why is it changing ??

This was from the other day

upload_2021-1-18_17-22-52.png

Wonder why it's dropped down on the 16th from 298k to 277k
upload_2021-1-18_17-23-9.png
 
johnola said:
You are much more wrong than they are.
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I’m not saying one dose has no effect.

I’m saying two doses is the “full vaccination” as prescribed by those that made the vaccines.

It’s more a comment on how this government will spin absolutely anything and happily skate over what might be more inconvenient details in search of any positive headline or a trending hashtag rather than being upfront and engaging in the substance of the matter.
 
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