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Coronavirus

So, London in lockdown tier 2 from Friday.

Am i correct in thinking, i can't go to a friends house for a beer, but we can go to the pub and have a beer?
 
Diamond Lights said:
ALL ABOARD THE BANTER BUS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1316681176933900288
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Ignoring political views for a second, I understood if you test positive then you are contacted 10 times by the tracing team with that being a mix of calls and text messages so I can't understand why people don't respond to that number of contacts. I mean if I'd tested positive I'd want to provide details so stop others getting it as well.
 
scaramanga said:
Same data, different focus.

Pretty much impossible to determine if it's a curve at that scale. The closer scale shows it to be fairly straight right now.
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And the case numbers curve makes a mockery of the first deaths curve TBH.

And the case number is hugely influenced by the number of confirmed cases with people returning to University and reporting positive cases. The increase also corresponds with track and trace being introduced even badly.
 
Diamond Lights said:
So, London in lockdown tier 2 from Friday.

Am i correct in thinking, i can't go to a friends house for a beer, but we can go to the pub and have a beer?
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No. Tier 2. You can’t go to a pub or restaurant with someone you don’t live with, nor can you sit with them at a private residence.

you can however sit on the garden or park where the existing rule of six still applies.

Tier 3. Zombie land.
 
johnola said:
No. Tier 2. You can’t go to a pub or restaurant with someone you don’t live with, nor can you sit with them at a private residence.

you can however sit on the garden or park where the existing rule of six still applies.

Tier 3. Zombie land.
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I thought that, but then reading the Gov info, it reads to me that you can still meet in a pub garden outdoors with people you don't live with?

Venues following COVID-secure guidance can host more people in total, but no one must mix indoors with anyone who they do not live with (or have formed a support bubble with) unless exemptions apply. Outdoors, you can meet in groups of up to 6 people.


This includes in:


  • pubs and restaurants
  • shops
  • leisure and entertainment venues

  • places of worship

I might be wrong, surprisingly the new tier ranking (probably world beating) isn't very clear cut. Probably by design than accident.
 
Diamond Lights said:
I thought that, but then reading the Gov info, it reads to me that you can still meet in a pub garden outdoors with people you don't live with?

Venues following COVID-secure guidance can host more people in total, but no one must mix indoors with anyone who they do not live with (or have formed a support bubble with) unless exemptions apply. Outdoors, you can meet in groups of up to 6 people.


This includes in:


  • pubs and restaurants
  • shops
  • leisure and entertainment venues

  • places of worship

I might be wrong, surprisingly the new tier ranking (probably world beating) isn't very clear cut. Probably by design than accident.
Click to expand...

Yep. The restriction is on mixing households in indoor environments. You can still meet in a group of up to 6 from multiple households in outdoor settings, including private gardens. Which is fine. Until it starts to rain.
 
Mikey10 said:
And the mortality rate in Italy (a country with a medical system comparable to ours) is currently less than 0.06%
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Globally the crude mortality rate is estimated to be 0.26% based on the likelihood that more people have had the virus that confirmed.

New York had 10 times the cases than confirmed based on subsequent antibody tests

Based on that and even wiggle room either way it still means the majority of people will only have a tickle and headache (to quote you)
 
Diamond Lights said:
I thought that, but then reading the Gov info, it reads to me that you can still meet in a pub garden outdoors with people you don't live with?

Venues following COVID-secure guidance can host more people in total, but no one must mix indoors with anyone who they do not live with (or have formed a support bubble with) unless exemptions apply. Outdoors, you can meet in groups of up to 6 people.


This includes in:


  • pubs and restaurants
  • shops
  • leisure and entertainment venues

  • places of worship

I might be wrong, surprisingly the new tier ranking (probably world beating) isn't very clear cut. Probably by design than accident.
Click to expand...
You've read that and it's not very clear?:rolleyes:

It's other people, whom aren't clear on it, making it not clear.

As someone said previously, people who want to be confused, will be.
 
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Grays_1890 said:
Globally the crude mortality rate is estimated to be 0.26% based on the likelihood that more people have had the virus that confirmed.

New York had 10 times the cases than confirmed based on subsequent antibody tests

Based on that and even wiggle room either way it still means the majority of people will only have a tickle and headache (to quote you)
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- Global death rates based on confirmed deaths vs. confirmed tested is 3% (everyone who uses a sub 1% number is estimating an exponentially higher infected but not confirmed rate)
- Competent medical systems only work within a certain control range, i.e. yes, if you can keep hospitalizations under a certain rate, people will survive, if you overwhelm the system, then the death rates will spike and 3% will be the low side.
- The other issue is long term effects on survivors who have had symptoms which could be a disaster by itself.

So many people don't understand large numbers .. sub 1% of the world death rate would be a death toll never seen before ...

Data for who cares

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/ai/ai-for-health-covid-data
 
Raziel said:
- Global death rates based on confirmed deaths vs. confirmed tested is 3% (everyone who uses a sub 1% number is estimating an exponentially higher infected but not confirmed rate)
- Competent medical systems only work within a certain control range, i.e. yes, if you can keep hospitalizations under a certain rate, people will survive, if you overwhelm the system, then the death rates will spike and 3% will be the low side.
- The other issue is long term effects on survivors who have had symptoms which could be a disaster by itself.
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On the first point yes thats is the point because not everyone who has had Covid has reported it or has had it recorded. If there is truth that the first case was in December then you are already missing two to three months of data. In the case that they think 45-50% of people aged under 45 will not show any signs then the number of cases will be higher than those reported by some way.

The last point is based on a yet to be proven theory that people who have been healthy through the virus are somehow going to develop some long term effect. Are there long covid victims? Yes but is it affecting those that show no signs? No and is it in mass numbers...no. So that is very much throwing a dart at what might happen rather than what has happened.

What is a fact is that locking people away means they are unlikely to go to the Drs for much more severe and deadly illness that Covid and illnesses that will strick down fit and healthy people of all ages, that is a proven fact which many Drs and scientists are warning against.

Experts predicting that when coroners catch up with their backlog the extent of home deaths aka suicides and people who died from avoiding treatment is going to become apparent.
 
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Grays_1890 said:
On the first point yes thats is the point because not everyone who has had Covid has reported it or has had it recorded. If there is truth that the first case was in December then you are already missing two to three months of data. In the case that they think 45-50% of people aged under 45 will not show any signs then the number of cases will be higher than those reported by some way.

The last point is based on a yet to be proven theory that people who have been healthy through the virus are somehow going to develop some long term effect. Are there long covid victims? Yes but is it affecting those that show no signs? No and is it in mass numbers...no. So that is very much throwing a dart at what might happen rather than what has happened.

What is a fact is that locking people away means they are unlikely to go to the Drs for much more severe and deadly illness that Covid and illnesses that will strick down fit and healthy people of all ages, that is a proven fact which many Drs and scientists are warning against.
Click to expand...

The Who published a peer review paper last night downgrading the virus to below flu.
 
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