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Coronavirus

I find that all convincing and backed up with a boatload of analysis, real world observations and fits my own current gut felt narrative - that it’s over, and our own interventions are causing much more damage than just letting it run it’s course.

I disagreed with Legohamster and Scara some months back when they each held the opinion that excess deaths was just taking the highly susceptible early. Well they appear to have been correct, although mortality was actually playing catch-up rather than getting ahead of itself - but I’m happy to concede that it appears they were much more correct than I was.

It’s comforting in a way that he predicts a natural rise in deaths to match typical seasonal mortality, we should expect to see this and not panic when the roller coaster of numbers hits the apex.

Thw epidemic is over but the disease is still present, and not one to catch if you can avoid it.

End the panic. Get out. Nature knows best.

Before you start wan king them off too hard lets see what the cold weather brings. Viral load seems a big factor in morbidity in this disease. People will still catch it when the weather and environment is hot/warm (see India etc) but the mortality rate seems lower compared to where we were at the start of this. Of course this may be because therapeutics have advanced (the main reason why I supported lock down in the first place) but it may also be because this virus is not as potent in the heat, something that research points to.

I hate the fact that the old and frail are seen as an inconvenient but necessary sacrifice to keep the economy going despite what the have given to society, the tax they have paid, the other contributions they have made... but all that matters not as long as Starbucks etc can keep their offshore not taxable profits rolling in. F uck that.

For me, I dont see the old and frail as expendable, I think we have a responsibility to protect those weaker that us, and we must do so even if it is at our expense.

But even if you don't belive as I do... i urge you to think about 'long Covid' it has left mathron runners unable to climb a flight of stairs. I know I couldn't run a marathon and maybe only 10% of people on here could... are you willing to roll that dice?
 
Before you start wan king them off too hard lets see what the cold weather brings. Viral load seems a big factor in morbidity in this disease. People will still catch it when the weather and environment is hot/warm (see India etc) but the mortality rate seems lower compared to where we were at the start of this. Of course this may be because therapeutics have advanced (the main reason why I supported lock down in the first place) but it may also be because this virus is not as potent in the heat, something that research points to.

I hate the fact that the old and frail are seen as an inconvenient but necessary sacrifice to keep the economy going despite what the have given to society, the tax they have paid, the other contributions they have made... but all that matters not as long as Starbucks etc can keep their offshore not taxable profits rolling in. F uck that.

For me, I dont see the old and frail as expendable, I think we have a responsibility to protect those weaker that us, and we must do so even if it is at our expense.

But even if you don't belive as I do... i urge you to think about 'long Covid' it has left mathron runners unable to climb a flight of stairs. I know I couldn't run a marathon and maybe only 10% of people on here could... are you willing to roll that dice?

point to where I have said they are expandable and we should not shield them ?

Are you this outraged when flu rips through care homes every year?

you moan about those writing off tax etc - who is going to pay the tax if there are less jobs ?

Long covid is the new give it 2 weeks
 
point to where I have said they are expandable and we should not shield them ?

Are you this outraged when flu rips through care homes every year?

you moan about those writing off tax etc - who is going to pay the tax if there are less jobs ?

Long covid is the new give it 2 weeks

Can you please stop with the false equivalence. Covid is not the flu! Also, you have a really bad case of the Rees Moggs and for that you have my sympathy, in that anyone who complains is labeled as a 'moaner' a 'carper.' This framing of the issue is another pathetic effort to get the most incompetent government in modern times off the hook. What you don't think people are justified in 'moaning'? Maybe when the care home killing fields hit 60.000 dead? What a joke!
 
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Can you please stop with the false equivalence. Covid is not the flu! Also, you have a really bad case of the Rees Moggs and for that you have my sympathy, in that anyone who complains is labeled as a 'moaner' a 'carper.' This framing of the issue is another pathetic effort to get the most incompetent government in modern times off the hook. What you don't think people are justified in 'moaning'? Maybe when the care home killing fields hit 60.000 dead? What a joke!

Do you know what really is a joke?

Mass hospital waiting lists
Increased cancer/Heart deaths
Mass unemployment
Increase in child abuse
Increase in domestic abuse
Increase mental health issue
Increased poverty
NHS being shut for anything other than covid
National debt being passed on to the next generation
Job prospects being damaged for youngest
Education ruined for 2 years

all of which affect way more than your made up figure of 60k

but you carp on about a single issue, it’s almost like you are pro all the above just to score cheap political points.

I assume you were equally as outraged at the 50k deaths from the flu in 2018?
 
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Gotta say, watching the UK (most of the world) try to attempt to fight this virus makes me glad to live in Melbourne, where, despite being in lockdown for over 6 months now, we have true light at the end of the tunnel.
 
Do you know what really is a joke?

Mass hospital waiting lists
Increased cancer/Heart deaths
Mass unemployment
Increase in child abuse
Increase in domestic abuse
Increase mental health issue
Increased poverty
NHS being shut for anything other than covid
National debt being passed on to the next generation
Job prospects being damaged for youngest
Education ruined for 2 years

all of which affect way more than your made up figure of 60k

but you carp on about a single issue, it’s almost like you are pro all the above just to score cheap political points.

I assume you were equally as outraged at the 50k deaths from the flu in 2018?


Yep, all brought to you by your friendly incompetent Tory government. So quit ya moaning!
 
Before you start wan king them off too hard lets see what the cold weather brings. Viral load seems a big factor in morbidity in this disease. People will still catch it when the weather and environment is hot/warm (see India etc) but the mortality rate seems lower compared to where we were at the start of this. Of course this may be because therapeutics have advanced (the main reason why I supported lock down in the first place) but it may also be because this virus is not as potent in the heat, something that research points to.

I hate the fact that the old and frail are seen as an inconvenient but necessary sacrifice to keep the economy going despite what the have given to society, the tax they have paid, the other contributions they have made... but all that matters not as long as Starbucks etc can keep their offshore not taxable profits rolling in. F uck that.

For me, I dont see the old and frail as expendable, I think we have a responsibility to protect those weaker that us, and we must do so even if it is at our expense.

But even if you don't belive as I do... i urge you to think about 'long Covid' it has left mathron runners unable to climb a flight of stairs. I know I couldn't run a marathon and maybe only 10% of people on here could... are you willing to roll that dice?

I dont think the old and frail are seen as an inconvenience but all we have left after this is data and lessons. We should have protected the weak and elderly earlier and alot better and there is no doubt we would have been in alot better place, with or without lockdown and for me thats been the biggest killer, not the delay in lockdown. If we had shielded those at most risk without a total lockdown we would have been clear now.

Its just a fact now looking back that those that moved on to pastures new were over a certain age or with secondary illness. When you look at the flat data globally under 50 and the percentage of deaths is extremely low and most of them come with a secondary underlining condition. The majority of deaths come from 60 - 80 plus. That was the case last December - where we are now so includes your winter toll too so I dont believe these is going to be a second coming to manipulate those stats like you fear, I hope I am right.

In terms of Marathon runner situation, I totally get that, its not good but then not to be blase those stories are dwarfed by the stories where people make a full recovery and like the common flu some people take longer than others to get back to the norm.

Im not pouring scorn on what has been an awful virus but we are getting to the realms where the long term affect of Lockdown is going to change the world into something we dont recognise than the future death toll which is important for me because its about what we do from now, we cant bring back the dead but we need to shape the future.

If you look at most jobs and the likelihood of them return to pre virus levels you are looking at the end of next year. If I look at my own industry its reliant on people who gave us contracts having their jobs, they dont, so those people have to get their jobs back which is based on the companies getting enough business to employ the people, to then get enough time under their belt and enough more money to sign overseas contracts. The timeline alone is 12 months to normality, in that time my company will have gone under because we cant wait for that moment. When consumer operators that are open already and have been for 2/3 months are laying off 2000 to 5000 people then we have problems.

Come the end of the lockdown which we are still in and at threat to be under till the new year you are going to get near to 1 sixth of the country in unemployment, that is going to kill more people than the virus ever did, someone listed earlier the major issues that have come from lockdown, the longer this goes on the worse it is going to get and people will not be pointing towards just the deathtoll.

Like I said its horrendously sad for those that have died and grave mistakes have been made, but we have a choice, we all sit indoors and pretend that is going to bring them back but take a slow death walk into the abyss or we look to move forward and do so not in guilt and knowing that it is not p1ssing on the memories of the dead.

I am up for blaming the Government for their incompetents, its where the bulk of blame lies. But lets not let that replace the need for us to move forward and save the country for the sake of peoples existence
 
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Before you start wan king them off too hard lets see what the cold weather brings. Viral load seems a big factor in morbidity in this disease. People will still catch it when the weather and environment is hot/warm (see India etc) but the mortality rate seems lower compared to where we were at the start of this. Of course this may be because therapeutics have advanced (the main reason why I supported lock down in the first place) but it may also be because this virus is not as potent in the heat, something that research points to.

I hate the fact that the old and frail are seen as an inconvenient but necessary sacrifice to keep the economy going despite what the have given to society, the tax they have paid, the other contributions they have made... but all that matters not as long as Starbucks etc can keep their offshore not taxable profits rolling in. F uck that.

For me, I dont see the old and frail as expendable, I think we have a responsibility to protect those weaker that us, and we must do so even if it is at our expense.

But even if you don't belive as I do... i urge you to think about 'long Covid' it has left mathron runners unable to climb a flight of stairs. I know I couldn't run a marathon and maybe only 10% of people on here could... are you willing to roll that dice?

Can you watch the presentation one more time and propose an alternative scientific analysis and forecast.

What you’ve written above is an abusive fear riven rant.

And then point out where it I said we expose the frail and vulnerable?
 
Ha clown.

I didn’t vote for them.

but as we’ve discovered this morning it’s all about political point scoring for you and screw the deaths and misery - that is far worse that voting for this shower.

Did I say that you voted for them? If being stupid was painful. you would be rolling on the floor in agony. Political point scoring? Yeah I would call it holding the government to account and not making excuses for them by having a go at their critics..
 
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Gotta say, watching the UK (most of the world) try to attempt to fight this virus makes me glad to live in Melbourne, where, despite being in lockdown for over 6 months now, we have true light at the end of the tunnel.

There won’t be true light at the end of the tunnel until there’s a vaccine, I’m afraid. Move out of lockdown and the virus will start to increase again, as per the rest of the world.
 
There won’t be true light at the end of the tunnel until there’s a vaccine, I’m afraid. Move out of lockdown and the virus will start to increase again, as per the rest of the world.

By that time 1 - 6 or 7 will be unemployed in the UK, this country cant have 10m on the job scrap heap with no relevant jobs available to move into, people cant even move sideways for work let alone work back in their own industries. This is not going to end well at all
 
Did I say that you voted for them? If being stupid was painful. you would be rolling on the floor in agony. Political point scoring? Yeah I would call it holding the government to account and not making excuses for them by having a go at their critics..

Jesus Christ you are Dim, no wonder you are hiding behind the sofa in case you get the rona you are clearly unable to read data and are swayed with ease.

At what point have I defended the Gov?

please point out - where I have said - yeah they are doing well?

the fact I’m so against a pointless lockdown surely shows I’m anything but supportive

Holding the Gov to account by wanting more to suffer? Sounds like point scoring to me
 
There won’t be true light at the end of the tunnel until there’s a vaccine, I’m afraid. Move out of lockdown and the virus will start to increase again, as per the rest of the world.


Finding a positive outside care homes or hospitals is a real needle in a haystack: 0.08% of tests.

There is no reason to lock down the country again
 
The fact I’m so against a pointless lockdown surely shows I’m anything but supportive

Thats where I am TBH

I was anti lockdown you can go back on here and see that, so I cant be pro government. Those that screamed for it got it, there were posts on here at the time saying the government only changed to a lockdown because the public demanded, seem to remember it was SpurMeUp, might be wrong but seem to remember that. Fact is we have it, we still have it, its not strict but we still have it and time is stopping still. These people who wanted it now want a plan B to survive without an economy, but that was the trade off, we were never going to get both. Some argue wanting an economy is like a life v money trade off but its not, whats the alternative, you cant have a country without work and money, it would be an even bigger broken system

I sometimes find it slightly one dimensional to just talk about the government faults at play on here, I also feel that when you dare to highlight a public error people take it as if you are somehow defending the government when you are clearly not.
 
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Can you watch the presentation one more time and propose an alternative scientific analysis and forecast.

What you’ve written above is an abusive fear riven rant.

And then point out where it I said we expose the frail and vulnerable?

No one minus sacra (lol) has ever suggested we expose anyone - but that is literally the only argument people have

the facts are there for all to see 307 people under the age of 60 without medical conditions have died from the virus

can you explain the logic of shutting everything down instead of
Shielding the at risks


Thats where I am TBH

I was anti lockdown you can go back on here and see that, so I cant be pro government. Those that screamed for it got it, there were posts on here at the time saying the government only changed to a lockdown because the public demanded, seem to remember it was SpurMeUp, might be wrong but seem to remember that. Fact is we have it, we still have it, its not strict but we still have it and time is stopping still. These people who wanted it now want a plan B to survive without an economy, but that was the trade off, we were never going to get both. Some argue wanting an economy is like a life v money trade off but its not, whats the alternative, you cant have a country without work and money, it would be an even bigger broken system

I sometimes find it slightly one dimensional to just talk about the government faults at play on here, I also feel that when you dare to highlight a public error people take it as if you are somehow defending the government when you are clearly not.

People don’t like admitting they are part at fault - why are people still getting tests without symptoms? (Common sense surely comes into play) why are 27 percent of people turning up for tests without a booking?

track and test is a pile of brick and that’s on this bent government. But the above doesn’t help
 
No one minus sacra (lol) has ever suggested we expose anyone - but that is literally the only argument people have

the facts are there for all to see 307 people under the age of 60 without medical conditions have died from the virus

can you explain the logic of shutting everything down instead of
Shielding the at risks




People don’t like admitting they are part at fault - why are people still getting tests without symptoms? (Common sense surely comes into play) why are 27 percent of people turning up for tests without a booking?

track and test is a pile of brick and that’s on this bent government. But the above doesn’t help

Yeh the government have done a HUGE amount wrong, the dithering, the testing etc. Done lots right on the finance side, propping up everyones salary from week one when no one knew how bad this was going to be was very good.

The Public have got things wrong, there is no doubt there is confusion out there but there are wholesale levels of people doing what they like which is not helpful. That group of lads from Wales going to Doncaster for the St Leger and coming back to create a major lockdown, as an example. Even if you are confused with the rules, you use your head, there are no excuses for that level of stupidity or the people meeting in London to protest or the raves in my opinion. I think those things are relevant to be discussed TBH away from the government stuff people everyone just seems to chuck the government in to caveat all people acting like helmets.
 
By that time 1 - 6 or 7 will be unemployed in the UK, this country cant have 10m on the job scrap heap with no relevant jobs available to move into, people cant even move sideways for work let alone work back in their own industries. This is not going to end well at all

Finding a positive outside care homes or hospitals is a real needle in a haystack: 0.08% of tests.

There is no reason to lock down the country again

As I’ve been saying for months, lockdown or not, the economy isn’t going back to anywhere near normal until there’s a vaccine. A large proportion of the population aren’t going into the office; public transport is operating way below capacity; most people aren’t travelling abroad; city centres are like ghost towns at night.

And that’s without lockdown.

People don’t want to catch it. They aren’t prepared to take risks. So, without a vaccine (or very very good therapeutic treatments) it ain’t going to improve.
 
As I’ve been saying for months, lockdown or not, the economy isn’t going back to anywhere near normal until there’s a vaccine. A large proportion of the population aren’t going into the office; public transport is operating way below capacity; most people aren’t travelling abroad; city centres are like ghost towns at night.

And that’s without lockdown.

People don’t want to catch it. They aren’t prepared to take risks. So, without a vaccine (or very very good therapeutic treatments) it ain’t going to improve.

I still see us in a technical lockdown as its restrictions stopping offices opening not want or will.

We were planning to reopen next month with the bubbles and restrictions we can't, staff want too, we have had a huge surge in worrying metal health signs from the team that our HR and others constantly firefight

Transport is no issue in London, my service as the same East, West and North of London are regular

If people were that scared they wouldn't be going out in their millions to pubs, eat out to help out wouldn't have been a storming success, the local shop wouldn't be packed. You could return to work is a safe an environment as you could a pub without doubt.
 
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