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Coronavirus
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
Hootnow
Jermaine Jenas
We were talking about this yesterday. It will be interesting to see what happens in China (and SK to some extent) now they've relaxed their measures. HK relaxed for a little bit and had a spike in imported cases from Hong Kongers coming back from abroad.
Even the measures China has in place now aren't sustainable for 18 months (or at least would cause severe economic damage). It will be a very very difficult stage.
Interesting to see how different countries cope if Covid-19 carries on in the same way and doesn't mutate into something a bit different.
Gilzeantoscore
Justin Edinburgh
No there are no exit strategies, just holding strategies, waiting for a vaccine to emerge. That is the state of play at present.
monkeybarry
Jack Jull
It will be minimising casualties - lock, release, lock, release.... repeat.
Stop the economy completely grinding a halt.
Stop people going crazy.
It will interested to see what happens in more liberal countries at lockdown no.3 (July/August?)
It a vaccine is in sight, it might be ok.
If not, rioting and marshall law?
I might be overstating that. But not convinced I am.
milo
Jack L. Jones
The article is covers a lock/release approach. It suggests that behavioural scientists are questioning the public response to loosening and tightening restrictions. You could see that compliance might drop off with each lockdown and that prompting a more authoritarian response from the government. If we do see a relaxation in the next few months, then I think that July and August would be the second lockdown.
Rorschach
Sonny Walters
Have you heard anything about people getting re-infected?
Also, well done mate. Ledge.
That is precisely what they did, yet he was very alarmist from the start - I think we'll look back at this in the future and realise we needlessly damaged huge parts of the economy.So you can analyse the data better than a literal world leading expert in his field? An analysis that you have misrepresented in the first place?
As you've been at pains to point out when people criticse Levy for having no experience in managing big companies and understanding the difficult decisions he has to make, I assume you have also never had to deal with anything where your decision making can cause thousands of deaths.
My very hazy memory is that their modelling initially was ridiculously broad in terms of potential numbers of cases but that they refined it (as you do with models) and they downgraded numbers of cases. Happy to be corrected on that. Just as I'm happy to point that a model is just that, a model. It tries to predict how things will turn out but can't say 400%. If you want something that gets it 400% right all of the time, its called a crystal ball. I can sell you some alongside Poch's lemons.
Yes, I probably can analyse data better than Ferguson, it's a sector I've spent a large chunk of my career working in and I'm very good at it. I'm sure you don't need telling just how much your colleagues struggle with properly analysing data - the medical profession is renowned for it.
jts1882
Dean Richards
I'd also wonder about how businesses could handle having to open and close. The uncertainty for people and businesses seems a recipe for chaos.
They have less than a month, IMO.
Hootnow
Jermaine Jenas
Truly amazing, there has never been a better time to post perhaps my favourite eponymous effect:
You 100% cannot analyse data better than him, especially his own data and particuraly when you have seemingly not read his paper.
That is not some blind defence of doctors, I agree many of my colleagues are not amazing at analysing data. Of course though, Professor Ferguson is not a doctor. He does not have an MBBS. He is an epidemiologist and specialises in mathematical biology. Literally his entire life has been spent on researching and modelling this stuff.
Before you start disparaging someone's work (especially a world renowned expert in the field), it might be worth doing a few things:
-Actually getting his job and background correct.
-Actually reading the paper he released.
-Once reading that paper, realise that the conclusions you've drawn from it are not actually what he has recommended.
-Realise that the paper you've linked to which you think triumphantly directly contravenes the modelling (and of course in your view, just so happens to basically agree with your view) a) actually quotes that model's figures and b) does not actually disagree with the Imperial paper's conclusions.
-Show perhaps some humility and appreciate that it is OK to admit you are not an expert on literally every single topic matter ever.
-Just as your go to defence for Levy is that us mere plebs cannot possibly comprehend making decisions for a company turning over hundreds of millions, perhaps appreciate that you may struggle to understand the thought processes of people making decisions affecting 65 million people and multiple trillions of pounds.
-Considering the lockdowns that have gone on throughout most of the world, perhaps ask yourself why the epidemiologists and experts in most countries are disagreeing with Scara on the internet.
-And understand that we are not over-reacting to theoretical scenarios but to actual situations which have already happened in China, Italy and Spain and the health systems being overwhelmed in those places.
We'll have to agree to disagree on my ability then.
You 400% cannot analyse data better than him, especially his own data and particuraly when you have seemingly not read his paper.
That is not some blind defence of doctors, I agree many of my colleagues are not amazing at analysing data. Of course though, Professor Ferguson is not a doctor. He does not have an MBBS. He is an epidemiologist and specialises in mathematical biology. Literally his entire life has been spent on researching and modelling this stuff.
Before you start disparaging someone's work (especially a world renowned expert in the field), it might be worth doing a few things:
-Actually getting his job and background correct.
-Actually reading the paper he released.
-Once reading that paper, realise that the conclusions you've drawn from it are not actually what he has recommended.
-Realise that the paper you've linked to which you think triumphantly directly contravenes the modelling (and of course in your view, just so happens to basically agree with your view) a) actually quotes that model's figures and b) does not actually disagree with the Imperial paper's conclusions.
-Show perhaps some humility and appreciate that it is OK to admit you are not an expert on literally every single topic matter ever.
-Just as your go to defence for Levy is that us mere plebs cannot possibly comprehend making decisions for a company turning over hundreds of millions, perhaps appreciate that you may struggle to understand the thought processes of people making decisions affecting 65 million people and multiple trillions of pounds.
-Considering the lockdowns that have gone on throughout most of the world, perhaps ask yourself why the epidemiologists and experts in most countries are disagreeing with Scara on the internet.
-And understand that we are not over-reacting to theoretical scenarios but to actual situations which have already happened in China, Italy and Spain and the health systems being overwhelmed in those places.
I knew I remembered Ferguson from something else. He did precisely the same thing with FMD - take good data, put them into an inaccurate model and create alarmist results.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
It is why testing is so vital. We've known this for about a month. Without a vaccine or a cure (neither imminent), the only solution of sorts is to actively test. That way people who have antibodies can keep things going, and we can contain the virus more effectively.
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
Hootnow
Jermaine Jenas
Yes, considering you didn't even know what his background and entire life's research has gone towards and until 3 minutes ago, thought he was a medical doctor, we will have to strongly disagree on your ability.
You should get your model out to the world governments. I'm sure they'd appreciate being able to come out of lockdown much earlier. And pay you handsomely for it.
Rorschach
Sonny Walters
You work in the burn unit, right?
I'm not sure where you get the impression I thought he was a doctor from. Maybe it's not your interpretation of the term, but for me, medical profession covers those in research too. I exclude pharmaceutical manufacturers from my opinion, their work is usually exemplary.
I have a perfectly good solution to this problem, unfortunately it's not an easy one to sell to the public. People on the whole don't do deferred gratification - it's not within their ability.
Seedy Ron
Jimmy Neighbour
Are we going to have up have a round of applause one evening for you propping an entire industry up Marky?
Hootnow
Jermaine Jenas
''I'm sure you don't need telling just how much your colleagues struggle with properly analysing data - the medical profession is renowned for it.''
'Colleague/ medical profession"
I have never come across someone who refers to a mathematician as being in the medical profession, regardless of what their area of research may be. Especially considering you know I'm a medical doctor, slightly strange wording to refer to him as a 'colleague'. There are of course some medical doctors who are involved in research but Ferguson is not one.
Apart from when I did some PH work in the past, I would never come across someone like Ferguson at all and wouldn't consider him any more of a colleague as a normal front line doctor than I would a professor of media studies.
Also, for all the criticisms of mathematicians and physicists, inability to properly analyse data is not one I've personally heard before.
You have however mentioned on here in the past how you have been treated by doctors who did not understand trial data and stats very well (which is true).
Trump seems to want to get the economy back up and running ASAP so I'm sure he especially would love to get your expertly formulated opinion. Regardless of what you think, I'm pretty sure most world governments aren't too keen on lockdown and an economic downturn.
Hootnow
Jermaine Jenas
Its unclear at the moment. Bit early in the UK's curve but there's some stuff coming out of China of 3-10% of recovered patients later testing positive. They seem to be asymptomatic though and unclear if they're still transmitting the disease.
I haven't personally read the papers though so can't be too sure.
My mistake - I must have misread your previous posts as I thought you were in PH now and had been an MD. In which case I'd have expected you to work closely with people like Ferguson.
I'm not saying his analysis is wrong - I couldn't without taking the same steps he has, probably taking longer than he did and needing a team to do so. My concern is that the govt is reacting to advice from someone who I have heard of for three papers - two of which were overly alarmist in their predictions, costing time and money that wasn't required. The stakes are now significantly higher than in either of those two cases - I would prefer the govt to be using someone else's work.