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American politics

braineclipse said:
The Mueller investigation is progressing, it's slow going perhaps, but that's the nature of these things. In 6-9 months they might have enough to make impeachment the only real option. If his approval ratings among republicans drops by a chunk the political motivation to impeach will increase significant, even barring clear findings from the investigation.

The political swing is also looking significant. If the Democrats manage to take control of the Senate it would be a game changer for Trump and massively increase the chance if impeachment. A solid democratic candidates in 2020 looks a very solid favourite right now if up against Trump.

Not a betting man on such issues, but I think the chances of him being gone in a year are higher than him being there for another six.
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I hope Trump stays the full-term and runs again, against Sanders who would smash him. Pence would be a much harder opponent for Bernie Sanders. Unless there are any shenanigans, or Sanders chooses not to run, he will almost certainly win the Democratic nomination. He's far and away the most popular politician in the Democratic Party (the last polling on it that I saw, Sanders is the most popular politician in America). By 2020, it's not unrealistic to think that there could be President Sanders, with a Dem controlled Congress.
 
the dza said:
I hope Trump stays the full-term and runs again, against Sanders who would smash him. Pence would be a much harder opponent for Bernie Sanders. Unless there are any shenanigans, or Sanders chooses not to run, he will almost certainly win the Democratic nomination. He's far and away the most popular politician in the Democratic Party (the last polling on it that I saw, Sanders is the most popular politician in America). By 2020, it's not unrealistic to think that there could be President Sanders, with a Dem controlled Congress.
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Isn't he really old though?
 
Jurgen the German said:
Isn't he really old though?
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He is pretty old, 76, so 78 for 2020. But Trump will be 73 in 2020, so it's not like he has much scope to use that as a point of attack. Everything is pointing to Sanders running again, though I suppose if he feels he is too old, then he won't.
 
the dza said:
He is pretty old, 76, so 78 for 2020. But Trump will be 73 in 2020, so it's not like he has much scope to use that as a point of attack. Everything is pointing to Sanders running again, though I suppose if he feels he is too old, then he won't.
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That would make him comfortably the oldest president ever voted in and there is evidence that age is a disadvantage in a presidential race.

He'd also probably be destroyed in the primaries if the Democrats put up a centrist candidate who isn't a compulsive liar and a clam this time.
 
scaramanga said:
That would make him comfortably the oldest president ever voted in and there is evidence that age is a disadvantage in a presidential race.

He'd also probably be destroyed in the primaries if the Democrats put up a centrist candidate who isn't a compulsive liar and a clam this time.
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I doubt that very much. He'd start as the front runner with huge name recognition this time, I think he'd win it comfortably assuming the contest is fair -- but that remains to be seen.

Age is a disadvantage, but it's not like a 78 year old v a 55 year old. If it's against Trump, it's a 78 year old v a 73 year old (with the mental age of a toddler, so there's youth on Trump's side in that respect).
 
the dza said:
I doubt that very much. He'd start as the front runner with huge name recognition this time, I think he'd win it comfortably assuming the contest is fair -- but that remains to be seen.

Age is a disadvantage, but it's not like a 78 year old v a 55 year old. If it's against Trump, it's a 78 year old v a 73 year old (with the mental age of a toddler, so there's youth on Trump's side in that respect).
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Again, I think it's the primary that will be his problem. He will likely be facing someone a bit younger at that stage.

If the Democrats have learned their lesson from the last election (and I really hope they have) then they need to find a candidate that won't have half of their base staying at home on polling day. There are a lot of Democrats who own businesses or are on good salaries - those people will not vote for someone with Sanders' view on taxation.

If they put their weight behind Sanders, current polling suggests he'd walk past Trump, but if the Republicans line up a more traditional candidate, in line with more of their core values then the risk of him losing an election is high.

I'd imagine that if the Democrats want to put forward someone from the left, it will likely be Elizabeth Warren. She shares many of his policies, is less scary on tax and hadn't yet been tarred with the socialist brush - still a dirty word in the US. She's weak on Defence and way out on both unions and the minimum wage, but is overall a fairly strong candidate.

In all likelihood, they'll probably put forward Biden. Looking at the polls and he breadth of his supports, he's probably best placed for a run this time. He's also (according he Hill) 10 points ahead of Sanders at the moment.
 
scaramanga said:
Again, I think it's the primary that will be his problem. He will likely be facing someone a bit younger at that stage.

If the Democrats have learned their lesson from the last election (and I really hope they have) then they need to find a candidate that won't have half of their base staying at home on polling day. There are a lot of Democrats who own businesses or are on good salaries - those people will not vote for someone with Sanders' view on taxation.

If they put their weight behind Sanders, current polling suggests he'd walk past Trump, but if the Republicans line up a more traditional candidate, in line with more of their core values then the risk of him losing an election is high.

I'd imagine that if the Democrats want to put forward someone from the left, it will likely be Elizabeth Warren. She shares many of his policies, is less scary on tax and hadn't yet been tarred with the socialist brush - still a dirty word in the US. She's weak on Defence and way out on both unions and the minimum wage, but is overall a fairly strong candidate.

In all likelihood, they'll probably put forward Biden. Looking at the polls and he breadth of his supports, he's probably best placed for a run this time. He's also (according he Hill) 10 points ahead of Sanders at the moment.
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Joe Biden is 75, only a year younger than Sanders. So if he is the main opposition (according to that Harvard CAPS/Harris poll) then age won't be a factor. But, Biden may not want to run. Sanders might not even, so it could all be moot -- I just think he will and the things I've read, it seems he is preparing to.
 
The Democrats have got to find a younger better candidate than Sanders, who was in Congress as an independent and just joined up for convenience.

Do you really think the man who said the following can win in the US: "These days, the American dream is more apt to be realized in South America, in places such as Ecuador, Venezuela and Argentina...".
 
jts1882 said:
The Democrats have got to find a younger better candidate than Sanders, who was in Congress as an independent and just joined up for convenience.

Do you really think the man who said the following can win in the US: "These days, the American dream is more apt to be realized in South America, in places such as Ecuador, Venezuela and Argentina...".
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Yes -- because being a change candidate who fires up the base to turnout and vote is more important than any controversial statements made in the past. Trump is living proof.
 
the dza said:
Joe Biden is 75, only a year younger than Sanders. So if he is the main opposition (according to that Harvard CAPS/Harris poll) then age won't be a factor. But, Biden may not want to run. Sanders might not even, so it could all be moot -- I just think he will and the things I've read, it seems he is preparing to.
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I agree, and I don't think either will end up being the candidate. Had they been 10 years younger they might have been.

Warren seems the front runner right now, though predictions are difficult with such things.
 
braineclipse said:
I agree, and I don't think either will end up being the candidate. Had they been 10 years younger they might have been.

Warren seems the front runner right now, though predictions are difficult with such things.
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I think the establishment democrats will push Kamala Harris, if Biden doesn't want to run.
 
They have several possible high profile female candidates, but the question is how will they deal with the constant personal insults and lack of any actual political debate.
 
Jordinho said:
They have several possible high profile female candidates, but the question is how will they deal with the constant personal insults and lack of any actual political debate.
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IMO, there are plenty in the Democratic Party who would welcome the whole thing to be about identity politics and not at all about policy. That way, they don't have to commit to anything that upsets corporate donors and get elected on a sort of feel-good factor, where nothing substantial changes. At the end of that road, a competent, "reasonable" sounding version of Trump awaits.
 
Yes, they seem too be falling into the trap of making it about identity. Trump made it about identity but chose the majority and was able to run a simple populist campaign. Making it about minorities will be incoherent, as different minorities have different interests, and will be the perfect stategy to enable Trump to whip up his base.

braineclipse said:
I agree, and I don't think either will end up being the candidate. Had they been 10 years younger they might have been.

Warren seems the front runner right now, though predictions are difficult with such things.
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She would be older than Trump was on taking office. She's only three years younger than him. She would be substantially younger than Biden or Sanders, though. You'd think they could find someone a bit younger.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
Is Obama allowed to run again? i know it is two terms as a president but can he not make a come back after time on the sidelines?
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FDR was the only president allowed to serve three terms. He did so due to a special provision passed by congress on account of the war. It was thought that allowing him a third term would provide the nation with the political stability it would need in a time of crisis.
 
Gilzeantoscore said:
FDR was the only president allowed to serve three terms. He did so due to a special provision passed by congress on account of the war. It was thought that allowing him a third term would provide the nation with the political stability it would need in a time of crisis.
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He actually won a 4th term iirc, but he died during that.
 
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