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Predict The Run In

metalgear said:
wouldn't just [ Arsenal's CL odds x Spurs 4th place ] be enough?
Click to expand...

No, its only when the CL winners finish outside the top 4 that 4th would miss out in the way we did last season (Chelsea finished 6th) so it would need to be [Arsenal's CL odds 33/1 x Arsenal finish outside top 4 4/5 x Spurs 4th place 8/11 = 104.7/1]
 
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If last year's scenario repeats itself I'll be finished with football. That would be just too hard to take. Unthinkable, although I'm thinking about it now and it scares the brick out of me.
 
Manchester United showed the same respect to us at our place as they did to RM tonight.
I think 4th is in the bag, 3rd is more than likely and 2nd ain't impossible.
As for Arsenal winning the ECL the bookies are offering 40-1.
 
Updated after this weekend's results. City replacing Everton and Liverpool as neither will finish in the top 5 (Arsenal and Chelsea to prove me wrong please) and slight adjustments to my predictions.

[table="width: 600, class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]Emirates Marketing Project[/td]
[td]Tottenham[/td]
[td]Chelsea[/td]
[td]Arsenal[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Aston Villa (A)[/td]
[td]Arsenal (H)[/td]
[td]West Brom (H)[/td]
[td]Tottenham (A)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Wigan (H)[/td]
[td]Liverpool (A)[/td]
[td]Fulham (A)[/td]
[td]Everton (H)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Everton (A)[/td]
[td]Fulham (H)[/td]
[td]West Ham (H)[/td]
[td]Swansea (A)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Saudi Sportswashing Machine (H)[/td]
[td]Swansea (A)[/td]
[td]Southampton (A)[/td]
[td]Reading (H)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Man Utd (A)[/td]
[td]Everton (H)[/td]
[td]Sunderland (H)[/td]
[td]West Brom (A)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]West Brom (H)[/td]
[td]Chelsea (A)[/td]
[td]Tottenham (H)[/td]
[td]Norwich (H)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Tottenham (A)[/td]
[td]Emirates Marketing Project (H)[/td]
[td]Liverpool (A)[/td]
[td]Fulham (A)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]West Ham (H)[/td]
[td]Wigan (A)[/td]
[td]Swansea (H)[/td]
[td]Man Utd (H)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Swansea (A)[/td]
[td]Southampton (H)[/td]
[td]Man Utd (A)[/td]
[td]QPR (A)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Reading (A)[/td]
[td]Stoke (A)[/td]
[td]Aston Villa (A)[/td]
[td]Wigan (H)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Norwich (H)[/td]
[td]Sunderland (H)[/td]
[td]Everton (H)[/td]
[td]Saudi Sportswashing Machine (A)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

I'll weight the teams as follows, expected number of points in brackets (home/away):

Top 1: Man Utd (0/0, anything here is a bonus)

CL contenders: Emirates Marketing Project, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal (1/1, 6 points in total)

Mid table: Everton, Liverpool, Swansea, West Brom, Stoke, Sunderland, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Fulham, Norwich, West Ham (3/1, 40 points in total)

Bottom 5: QPR, Wigan, Southampton, Reading, Aston Villa (3/3, 30 points in total)

If anyone matched this over the course of a season they would get 76 points, leaving some margin for fudgeups. :) It's mostly intended to rate the different run ins and you never now when teams will start to switch off towards the end of the season.

As it stands:

Emirates Marketing Project 56
Tottenham 51
Chelsea 49
Arsenal 47

Come end of season:

Emirates Marketing Project 80 (24/33 points won)
Chelsea 73 (24/33 points won)
Tottenham 72 (21/33 points won)
Arsenal 67 (20/33 points won)

Assuming the teams fighting relegation put up a fight and get a draw at home:

Emirates Marketing Project 76
Tottenham 70
Chelsea 69
Arsenal 65

Using last season's results from the same fixtures:

Emirates Marketing Project 83
Tottenham 72
Chelsea 72
Arsenal 58

*all this assuming I've counted correctly when adding up
 
raceforcl.png
 
Seriously tough games coming up. Long long way to go this season. This last week has helped our cause a lot.
 
Who'd be a Spurs fan hey? Instead of bathing in the joys of a derby day win I'm now paralysed with fear about games v City, Everton, Liverpool, Chelsea, away to Stoke and Swansea!
 
10 games to go, the real countdown starts now and its getting edgy, with all the teams contending doing well and no changes in positions over the last two games.

12 game unbeaten run, our longest in the EPL, looking good if we can keep ourselves fit.
 
Chelsea's last 6 are pretty tough even villa away fighting for survival. Arsenal have a nice run of about 5 bankers but then have tough games in 4 of their last 5, city should breeze to 2nd.

In summary the 3 London clubs have a pretty tough end to the season. We just need to make sure we win the ones we should a hope to pick up the odd result against Chelsea city Liverpool or Everton, I don't think we'll lose all those anyway.
 
Swansea away next for Arsenal. That ISN'T easy at all. They outclassed Arsenal at The Emirates.
 
What i have noticed though is next week..

Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea, City and Man Utd all don't play.

Just us and Liverpool play out of the top teams. So a BIG chance for us to go 2 points behind City (if they beat Villa) or level (if they draw) or above (if they lose) into second place. 5 points clear of Chelsea, 10 points clear of Arsenal, 12 points clear of Everton and a whopping 15 points clear of Liverpool.
 
I have to say, I think Arse have the easiest run-in by far over us and Chelsea.
Cannot see them dropping many, especially once they get a hammering from Bayern and have nothing else to play for.

I said this before the Arse game and I'll say it again. IF we take 6 points from Arse and Liverpool (and we're half-way there), then I think we'll finish 3rd or 4th. But anything less and you watch the pressure mount. Everyone is getting excited about the 7 point lead, but if we lose to Liverpool and Arse win their next game, that'll be four point lead as we approach games against City and Chelsea when they are playing Norwich & Fulham. GOT TO WIN AT ANFIELD.
 
Cotswold said:
I have to say, I think Arse have the easiest run-in by far over us and Chelsea.
Cannot see them dropping many, especially once they get a hammering from Bayern and have nothing else to play for.

I said this before the Arse game and I'll say it again. IF we take 6 points from Arse and Liverpool (and we're half-way there), then I think we'll finish 3rd or 4th. But anything less and you watch the pressure mount. Everyone is getting excited about the 7 point lead, but if we lose to Liverpool and Arse win their next game, that'll be four point lead as we approach games against City and Chelsea when they are playing Norwich & Fulham. GOT TO WIN AT ANFIELD.
Click to expand...


I don't think Arsenal will come away from Swansea with a win. Swansea schooled them last time, and are also on a high after winning the League cup.


Which is their next game. Unfortunately we have the same game to play. I fear Swansea more than i fear Liverpool. If you press Liverpool they will make errors, they play the passing game far too religiously, with players who are not technically gifted enough under pressure.
 
Arsenal could definitely knocking on our door very soon if we don't keep winning. The thing is its very difficult to keep a sustained run like this, most would probably guess that as we've already got our new record we are long overdue a loss. Either way somewhere we will drop some points inevitably, and I fully expect Arsenal to be fairly close to us come the end of the season. Long long way to go.
 
I'm dont think that our run-in is as frightening [on paper] as people are suggesting, certainly not much worse than Chelsea's. I'd back us to be competitive in all of those games...the ONLY thing that worries me is that we've gone 12 games unbeaten, and I dont quite know how to interpret this. On the one hand, we dont usually DO long unbeaten runs like this, so you'd be tempted to think that its going to end soon. On the other hand, maybe this is a sign of the sort of team we are now? Last season our 10/11 game was amazing, but it felt like we could have had a 'Wigan at home' at any moment. This little unbeaten spell seems to have gone under the radar; I know, the media have gone mad at times but within the club it feels a bit less "dreamlike". Whether this is down to the way Redknapp played it up, or the football we were playing, I dont know. Yesterday was the first derby we've played for AGES where it actually felt like we were playing on a level/superior footing. The Man Utd game at home was similar. We're definitely showing the better teams far less respect than we used to, regain composure much quicker when we go through a spell of the other team being on top.

Our players form also seems slightly more stable imo. Everyone's been saying that Bale is going to stop scoring/playing well, but he seems like he has genuine belief in what he's doing...its less dramatic and scintillating at times, but more assured and efficient.I dont think its as easy to completely subdue him when the spotlight is on him these days. Dembele hasnt been driving forward the way he was next to Sandro, but he still fulfills his defensive duties brilliantly imo. Even at his worst, he's still good enough to stop teams overrunning us in the middle for long periods. I think Arsenal are much more prone to implosion now...they seem fragile, even when playing 'well', whereas in our games I get the impression that even when we're distinctly average we have another 'gear' to move into. I reckon we're due another blip soon, but i dont think it will be the disaster that people anticipate, or that Arsenal/Liverpool will be mentally strong enough to make it one. If we win or draw at anfield, i'll really start to believe :D
 
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