Politics, politics, politics

[DTA]

I wont lie, when it was released I didnt follow that graphic well at all - my understanding was that it appears to show we would be happy with a CETA style deal, before a hard brexit.

This article confirms my understanding as correct.

Then it quotes some online response, including "a blogger".

That article doesnt actually say much else. So Im not sure what you think it proves.

It outlines all the possible deals we can get. Ignore what the UKs 'red lines' are because all we voted for was to leave the eu.... so from Norway to canada is open to us.

But that is all that is open to us... with very minor divergence, just like the first round.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

No, it doesnt. It outlines all the deals there currently are, and how only the last suit us based upon the red lines we put forth.

Ive seen nothing definitive to say what is and isnt open to us. And that article certainly isnt it.

 

[DTA]

No, it doesnt. It outlines all the deals there currently are, and how only the last suit us based upon the red lines we put forth.

Ive seen nothing definitive to say what is and isnt open to us. And that article certainly isnt it.

Then you haven' been paying attention.

The EU says there is no bespoke deal. It says pick one of the deals available. The UK says we want a bespoke deal and here are our red lines.. the EU says... we already told you no bespoke deal.

They dance around for a few months David Davis gets a headache ( he doesn't like homework) and calls Teresa May in.... she agrees to almost everything the eu said in the firat place. This is what happened in the firat round (as i predicted in this thread) and it will be what will happen in the second round.... why?

Because (as I predicted in this thread even before the vote) it is too politically expensive for the EU to give us a better deal leaving then we do remaining.

Also I looked at how the EU negotiated with Greece. They were unwavering some would say ruthless. They were 100% willing to take the pain of Greece leaving to preserve the integrity of the EU. In fact their closing gambit was 'how much do you want to leave' we want you to leave how much will it cost us'

 

[DTA]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...gures-ifg-turnover-a8123361.html?S2ref=283968

Mean while they are still taking the tinkle out if you Brexiteers... they are not taking Brexit seriously? Why is that? Why is the department in a shambles? Why is there so many job vacancies open... they are taking this out of you! They are not doing it properly. Are you happy with that?

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

So show me where we are given totally limited options on any possible deal. It shouldnt be hard. A Huff post opinion piece doesnt really cut it.

As to Greece, with respect to them, they arent us. While people like to point out we are "only 50 million people" compared to their 500 million, these same people also decry us being downgraded to the worlds 6th largest economy.

Which is it? Tiny Island or enormous economy?

Whichever way you cut it, losing us completely is a huge hit to the EU. Losing Greece? Hardly one they would lose sleep about.

 

[the dza]

Be you leaver, remainer, Tory or Labour -- just wanted to wish a Merry Christmas to my fellow sad qunts in the politics thread. May the new year bring us even more bickering!

 

[DTA]

So show me where we are given totally limited options on any possible deal. It shouldnt be hard. A Huff post opinion piece doesnt really cut it.

As to Greece, with respect to them, they arent us. While people like to point out we are "only 50 million people" compared to their 500 million, these same people also decry us being downgraded to the worlds 6th largest economy.

Which is it? Tiny Island or enormous economy?

Whichever way you cut it, losing us completely is a huge hit to the EU. Losing Greece? Hardly one they would lose sleep about.

Ignore the opinion from the huff post and concentrate on the graphic.... that is straight from the EU negociating team.... no bespoke deal... Pick an option.

Yeah Greece is much smaller than us.... but you know what, they are much more integrated into the EU ... euro no borders etc etc. Also when the EU called Greece's bluff the EU economy was in a much worse place . That is not the case now.

 

[DTA]

Be you leaver, remainer, Tory or Labour -- just wanted to wish a Merry Christmas to my fellow sad qunts in the politics thread. May the new year bring us even more bickering!

fudge off.


Only joking my friend. Have a great Xmas and new year!

 

[SpurMeUp]

Gosh where to start!

As usual, haste in posting a rebuttal leads to the missing of the intention or point.

Of course you have to model the offshoot/other factors. What if, say, part of our strategy was to trade heavily with India to supplement any potential loss of EU trade? You wouldnt just model the EU part of that equation would you? And if you did, what good would your model be?

And that key point, is after you have completely over looked what I have repeatedly said. Which was, why are models so important AT THIS TIME...

So we shouldn't model anything at all now is what you are saying? But we should model every possible scenario in the future. When is this point when we start modeling? Is it 5 minutes before Brexit occurs? That would be like viewing the house you're buying for the first time when all the solicitors legal work was done, and the purchase funds cleared. You would never do that on a personal level, why would you in this instance? Not sure who was posting in haste to be frank.

Ive been making it italic and everything, to point out that timing is key. Just as Ive stated my point of view is based entirely on that factor. RIGHT NOW I really dont see the big deal. Later on? Maybe anger will be entirely justified.

And that leads to another fairly pertinent point - why should we be making judgements NOW? When we have only got to stage 1 in the process at which point we have agreed to settle our debts, no more. We havent even begun to look forward.

Brexit's not much more than a year away. Why the hell have we not even begun to look forward!!? What is it you are waiting for?

My pointing to CETA is not me modelling anything, incidentally. Repeatedly I have used it to illustrate two things, and two things alone
1) The EU will set up a free trade deal with countries not part of the EU
2) The EU will set up a free trade deal that DOES NOT include free movement of people.

These are facts. Something you are keen on. And yet, facts that directly counter opinions you repeatedly state as fact.

My OPINION is that using CETA as both a precedent, and potential starting point for a SIMILAR (read:not the same) deal is a good idea.

CETA does not include any provision for services. The UK's economy is 80% service based. So CETA shows us that the EU will agree trade deal with non-EU countries that are of no use to us.

Britain enjoyed a £14bn trade surplus with the EU last year in services, fuelled by the strength of the City of London as Europe’s financial capital, and by Britain’s strength in providing legal and tax advice, along with other business services. https://www.ft.com/content/c9f8506c-df17-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c

Let me ask you a relatively simple question. Do you think the EU would give Davis and the UK CETA plus services, without free movement? You can weigh things up and make an informed guess. What's your hunch?

Lets try and flip your belief on the economy on its head, because an extremely basic idea seems to allude you.

Do YOU think that the economy is now set, and that post Brexit it will be the same? Simple yes or no.

If Yes, fine - we have to agree to disagree. If no - then what exactly is your point? Because "no" is my point. "No" dictates the economy will change because our future status will be understood. Which also dictates the economy today is nothing but a reaction to the current uncertainty, something Brexit will rectify for better or worse.

And again, I resent the notion I am somehow not looking. Somehow being lead blindly. I am very simply being dispassionate about the situation and looking at it for what I think it is. At no point have I stated I am blindly behind Brexit, no matter what. At no point have I said I think it will all be great. Nor have I denied potential down sides.

AllI have done is refuted rather flimsy points made against, while essentially keeping my powder dry on responding in a big way until I know what actually is going to happen.

The current slow down in our economy is attributable to what? Brexit. Brexit is causing uncertainty and is pretty likely to affect the UKs ability to trade freely to some degree. Therefore its a reaction to uncertency but more than that, its a reaction to the prospects of Brexit. If Brexit was something else entirely, for example the Norway model and we were allowed to make trade agreements with other countries, and Donald Trump was onside looking to reward the UK with a peachy trade deal, then do you think the pound would stay low, or investors would continue to halt investments into the UK? No. So Brexit as we see it now, is causing the downgrade now.

When do you think we should make an assessment of Brexit then? Economists did it pretty extensively pre-vote. People who are probably more qualified than our government have modelled and studied it. When is the magic time to say ok go, start modelling? And what do you do with the information? Another vote? Or you do the analysis once everything is signed off and we're committed to Brexit? Don't forget, at this point, we could reverse article 50, in a years time the UK will have no choice at all.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Ignore the opinion from the huff post and concentrate on the graphic.... that is straight from the EU negociating team.... no bespoke deal... Pick an option.

Yeah Greece is much smaller than us.... but you know what, they are much more integrated into the EU ... euro no borders etc etc. Also when the EU called Greece's bluff the EU economy was in a much worse place . That is not the case now.

I read it very simply as "heres where they fit in the existing set up". Defining our red lines by existing relationships.

I see nothing about it dictating they are the only options available.

Its a very basic graphic, I really dont see that it proves much of anything. More will become clear when negotiations start.

And whatever you think of Greece, they just dont compare to us. 47th largest economy in the world...

 

[DTA]

I read it very simply as "heres where they fit in the existing set up". Defining our red lines by existing relationships.

I see nothing about it dictating they are the only options available.

Its a very basic graphic, I really dont see that it proves much of anything. More will become clear when negotiations start.

And whatever you think of Greece, they just dont compare to us. 47th largest economy in the world...

No disrespect but you read it wrong. The EU have repeatedly said no Bespoke deal. This graphic shows the options available to us. Ignore our red lines as they are the folly of the hard Brexiteers.

All we voted for (narrowly, and with much deception) is to leave. How we leave is completely up in the air. Even Farage was favoring the Norway model before the ref.

 

[DTA]

@nayimfromthehalfwayline

@SpurMeUp reiterates a point that I made before.

Now is the time for impact assements... if not now, then when? If we do impact assements when the negotiations finish, then what? It' a done deal. So what' the point? Unless you are suggesting another referenum... what' the point of impact assements when we are locked in?

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

So we shouldn't model anything at all now is what you are saying? But we should model every possible scenario in the future. When is this point when we start modeling? Is it 5 minutes before Brexit occurs? That would be like viewing the house you're buying for the first time when all the solicitors legal work was already done, and the purchase funds cleared. You would never do that on a personal level, why do would you in this instance? Not sure who was posting in haste to be frank.

We start modelling when we can do so in a meaningful way. Its not a hard concept to grasp, surely?

We start negotiations, options become much more clearly defined, we then have parameters within which to actually model with some accuracy.

Common sense, no? Doing something when you can do it with purpose?

As I asked previously, what do you think COULD have been achieved with impact assessments at this time?

Brexit's not much more than a year away. Why the hell have we not even begun to look forward!!? What is it you are waiting for?

Options! Right now we can model absolutely everything. Finger in the air, pie in the sky, pull a number out of your ass...

As soon as things get under way, as soon as lines are drawn and we know more tangibly what we are dealing with, then yes - lets model things and lets get it as right as we can.

CETA does not include any provision for services. The UK's economy is 80% service based. So CETA shows us that the EU will agree trade deal with non-EU countries that are of no use to us. In short it shows the EU will enter free trade agreements, big deal. It has little relevance to us.

Britain enjoyed a £14bn trade surplus with the EU last year in services, fuelled by the strength of the City of London as Europe’s financial capital, and by Britain’s strength in providing legal and tax advice, along with other business services. https://www.ft.com/content/c9f8506c-df17-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c

Let me ask you a relatively simple question. Do you think the EU would give Davis and the UK CETA plus services, without free movement? You can weigh things up and make an informed guess. What's your hunch?

I dont know how many times Ive emphasised that I do not think we will do an exact copy of the CETA deal. Please stop assuming that is the case.

Big deal? It has MASSIVE relevance to us. We want free trade, we dont want free movement - CETA proves its possible. It is insulting you are so dismissive of it.

My hunch? I was thinking earlier maybe a CETA-like deal plus financial services - with us paying for the financial passport. And I see no reason at all why free movement would need to be insisted upon.

And, right now, I can think of no reason why it should be.

The current slow down in our economy is attributable to what? Brexit. Brexit is causing uncertainty and is pretty likely to affect the UKs ability to trade freely to some degree. Therefore its a reaction to uncertency but more than that, its a reaction to the prospects of Brexit. If Brexit was something else entirely, for example the Norway model and we were allowed to make trade agreements with other countries, and Donald Trump was onside looking to reward the UK with a peachy trade deal, then do you think the pound would stay low, or investors who stop putting money into the UK? No. So Brexit as we see it now, is causing the downgrading.

When do you think we should make an assessment of Brexit then? Economists did it pretty extensively pre-vote. People who are probably more qualified than our government have modelled and studied it. When is the magic time to say ok go, start modelling? And what do you do with the information? Another vote? Or you do the analysis once everything is signed off and we're committed to Brexit? Don't forget, at this point, we could reverse article 50, in a years time the UK will have no choice at all.

So you cant say Yes or No then, only muddy the topic?

It is not a reaction to the prospects of Brexit, that is entirely my point. It is a reaction to not knowing yet what those prospects are. Very simple.

For example, if your Norway example comes to bear, I fully expect the economy to react to that reality. Be that for better or worse. The point is the economy today is based on the fact nobody knows what will happen at all. Not even enough to start making predictions and forecasts on.

Ignoring your tone, when do I think we can start modelling and making more informed decisions? Easy, when we actually have some information! Its not rocket science, is it?

Is it better to flail blindly and panic because its dark, or to wait until the light goes on to see if there is actually a monster? And if there is a monster, see how big it is? how scary?

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

No disrespect but you read it wrong. The EU have repeatedly said no Bespoke deal. This graphic shows the options available to us. Ignore our red lines as they are the folly of the hard Brexiteers.

All we voted for (narrowly, and with much deception) is to leave. How we leave is completely up in the air. Even Farage was favoring the Norway model before the ref.

And no disrespect to you, but youve done nothing to prove that.

If it is such public knowledge, show me where we are limited.

And, show me where an incredibly basic infographic was explained to be biblical in its meaning.

It really shouldnt be difficult, should it?

@nayimfromthehalfwayline

@SpurMeUp reiterates a point that I made before.

Now is the time for impact assements... if not now, then when? If we do impact assements when the negotiations finish, then what? It' a done deal. So what' the point? Unless you are suggesting another referenum... what' the point of impact assements when we are locked in?

Ive asked a few times now. Please explain to which degree we are able to model these things, without knowing the first thing about what brexit looks like.

Please also explain how informative they will be. I assume they must be very accurate and reliable, for you to care so much - so why dont you explain it all to me.

 

[DTA]

And no disrespect to you, but youve done nothing to prove that.

If it is such public knowledge, show me where we are limited.

And, show me where an incredibly basic infographic was explained to be biblical in its meaning.

It really shouldnt be difficult, should it?



Ive asked a few times now. Please explain to which degree we are able to model these things, without knowing the first thing about what brexit looks like.

Please also explain how informative they will be. I assume they must be very accurate and reliable, for you to care so much - so why dont you explain it all to me.

So just to be clear. You are asking me to find quotes where the EU say there is not going to be a bepoke deal? Is that correct? If so I'm happy to oblige. If not what are you asking For?

 

[SpurMeUp]

@nayimfromthehalfwayline you therefore think we should model Brexit when we have the terms of the UK-EU trade deal? Pretty much when Parliament will actually have a vote. If the models come back looking unfavourable for the UK economy, how should our MPs vote?

The delusion that we'll get everything on a plate from Brexit is naive. The US is not going to be opening up and giving us an easy trade deal, why would they put our interests in front of their own? You know the Norway model includes free movement right? I am genuinely sad that politicians and people are so deluded. They think the UK can dictate terms. It's almost like a kid wanting something to be true so very much, that they convince and lie to themselves and others.

As with the exit bill, the terms were laid out to us, not vice versa. We were told by Brexiteers that we'd tell them, and it would be easy to leave on our terms. It didn't happen with the brexit bill, but it will with the trade deal? Why do you think with trade we'll be able to dictate terms to the EU, and make them give us a better deal for us than their own member countries get?

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

So just to be clear. You are asking me to find quotes where the EU say there is not going to be a bepoke deal? Is that correct? If so I'm happy to oblige. If not what are you asking For?

Youve stated, repeatedly, and categorically that we have a select number of choices. Providing only an infographic in a poorly constructed clickbait article.

You tell me without question we cannot do something, and now hours later have provided nothing to back it up.

How do you suppose that looks?

@nayimfromthehalfwayline you therefore think we should model Brexit when we have the terms of the UK-EU trade deal? Pretty much when Parliament will actually have a vote. If the models come back looking unfavourable for the UK economy, how should our MPs vote?

The delusion that we'll get everything on a plate from Brexit is naive. The US is not going to be opening up and giving us an easy trade deal, why would they put our interests in front of their own? You know the Norway model includes free movement right? I am genuinely sad that politicians and people are so deluded. They think the UK can dictate terms. It's almost like a kid wanting something to be true so very much, that they convince and lie to themselves and others.

As with the exit bill, the terms were laid out to us, not vice versa. We were told by Brexiteers that we'd tell them, and it would be easy to leave on our terms. It didn't happen with the brexit bill, but it will with the trade deal? Why do you think with trade we'll be able to dictate terms to the EU, and make them give us a better deal for us than their own member countries get?

No. And at this point I can only assume you are deliberately miss representing my posts to then post whatever suits your desired narrative.

And then you have the front to throw words like delusion and naive at me as well. All while never actually countering the points being made. Classic.

 

[DTA]

Youve stated, repeatedly, and categorically that we have a select number of choices. Providing only an infographic in a poorly constructed clickbait article.

You tell me without question we cannot do something, and now hours later have provided nothing to back it up.

How do you suppose that looks?

The infographic is by the EU themselves. Like I said forget the article if you like.

But please do answer my question. Are you asking for me to find you direct quote from the EU saying there will be no bespoke deal? If so I' happy to oblige. If not what are you asking for? Please don' ignore this again. It' poor form

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

The infographic is by the EU themselves. Like I said forget the article if you like.

But please do answer my question. Are you asking for me to find you direct quote from the EU saying there will be no bespoke deal? If so I' happy to oblige. If not what are you asking for? Please don' ignore this again. It' poor form

I think you read far to much into a simple graphic.

And I know what you are doing, you are setting me up so you can quote Braniers "no bespoke deal" one liner. And you'll take that as gospel.

While ignoring we have our own stated red lines, which you will conveniently ignore or dismiss (with a swipe at the Tories while you're at it). What suits your agenda is good, what doesnt suit it doesnt count, right?

Both statements, lets be honest, are opening gambits. Trying to set starting positions in a negotiation. I think it would be foolish, personally, to take either as gospel.

What I havent seen, aside from that single line, is anything at all to say "Here is what is on offer" "Here is what we are prepared to do". Only "No Bespoke deals".

What does that even mean? And - looking at your graphic - the EU currently has 7 different arrangements with differing states. Are none of these Bespoke? Do none of these contain/omit things that suit the other party in order to reach an agreement?

Is CETA not the very definition of bespoke?

And this is the thing. Yes, Im more in favour of leave than remain, but - I am not dogmatic about it. I am simply yet to see compelling arguments as to why remaining is such a good thing. So many things put forward by remainers are so easily deconstructed, and as soon as that happens the conversation is moved on and those points ignored. It becomes tedious, to say the least.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Ive asked a few times now. Please explain to which degree we are able to model these things, without knowing the first thing about what brexit looks like.

Please also explain how informative they will be. I assume they must be very accurate and reliable, for you to care so much - so why dont you explain it all to me.

And in order to save you from poor form on your part, why dont you answer this question that has so far been ignored?