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Politics, politics, politics

milo said:
I've skim read two of them. As the MPs who viewed them said, they are high level "as is" papers with no assessment of the impacts of different scenarios on the sector. The sector comments have been redacted by the Select Committee.

Jo Swinson made some notes on the sectoral comments and tweeted them yesterday. I'd agree with her on the quality/usefulness of the papers too

https://twitter.com/x/status/943567178372132866

I almost hope that Davis is lying and that they created these to avoid releasing the real papers. It would be really worrying if this is all they have got to base the most important decisions facing this country in over half a century on.
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They must be going for the softest of soft Brexit surely? If not the level of negligence could actually be criminal.
 
DTA said:
They must be going for the softest of soft Brexit surely? If not the level of negligence could actually be criminal.
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I don't see how they can do anything else and meet the commitment on the Irish border.

The negligence cuts the other way too. If they genuinely believe that there are benefits from Brexit, detailed impact assessments would help identify them as shape policy to make sure that we take advantage of them.

I think that the government has no objective other than surviving each day.
 
Been pretty disturbed at reading about Ryanair charging people a administration fee when they leave the company. I never thought I would be one to say the should be a union but I think workers rights have been shat on. I can not wait till we are out of the gangster club and can truly shape our country and how we are run.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
Been pretty disturbed at reading about Ryanair charging people a administration fee when they leave the company. I never thought I would be one to say the should be a union but I think workers rights have been shat on. I can not wait till we are out of the gangster club and can truly shape our country and how we are run.
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notsure-1.jpg
 
DTA said:
That's a fair point. What' your thoughts about that Brexiteers? @nayimfromthehalfwayline @Gutter Boy @parklane1 @parklane81 @scaramanga et al
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Personally I think economics is just 'slow journalism' (i.e. with the context of time it can provide past commentary, but is no good looking forward because it doesn't look at bigger socio-political factors), and that Brexit is politics reasserting itself over economics (unrestrained market forces).

As a country we've made a political decision about which sphere of influence we want to belong to (our own looking globally, rather than submissive in a regional bloc), and now we implement that. It's never really been about the marginal gains or losses for the corporations for me. That's micro compared to the socio-political drive.
 
Gutter Boy said:
Personally I think economics is just 'slow journalism' (i.e. with the context of time it can provide past commentary, but is no good looking forward because it doesn't look at bigger socio-political factors), and that Brexit is politics reasserting itself over economics (unrestrained market forces).

As a country we've made a political decision about which sphere of influence we want to belong to (our own looking globally, rather than submissive in a regional bloc), and now we implement that. It's never really been about the marginal gains or losses for the corporations for me. That's micro compared to the socio-political drive.
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But as Milo says... they are potentially missing the opportunities that would make Brexit a succss by not doing their due diligence.

But as an aside, it's not profits of large corporations that i am worried about.

It's the devaluation of the pound for instance, which causes inflation which makes everything more expensive for 'normal people's which in turn pushes interest rates up, which means that people with mortages struggle and have less money to spend at their local shop. Which because the local shop had to take out a loan to lease the shop, means he can't service that loan and goes out of business.

So fudge global businesses bottom lines, I care about people being worse off.

Incidentally global business will undoubtedly be better off under a Tory Brxit.

The more I think about it.... the more I think...fudge it if Brexit is going to happen.... and if it' not going to a soft Brexit... then let it be a fudging hard left Brexit.... led by Cornyn... so those right wing clams (And not all on the right are clams) like Murdock et al that supported Brexit for their own nefarious gains will truly feel the pains of their actions
 
DTA said:
That's a fair point. What' your thoughts about that Brexiteers? @nayimfromthehalfwayline @Gutter Boy @parklane1 @parklane81 @scaramanga et al
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My feelings are a mixed.

As @r-u-s-x points out (potentially sarcastically) my first thought is "how do you know the unknowable?". Until we start to understand what Brexit looks like how can we possibly predict anything?

And, honestly, if they just came out and said as much I would respect that. On the basis that as possibilities narrow we really flesh these ideas/potential risks/rewards etc out.

As it is, the way they present themselves is as incompetent. Which is of course concerning without changing the underlying fact that, honestly, how are we supposed to predict what will happen?

They also manage to present themselves as not having any idea what they WANT Brexit to look like. Now, we have all seen snipets, but at no point have the specced it out. Is this negotiation strategy? Is this a genuine case they have no plan/idea? Is it, yet again, really poor communication?

I dont know, and as @milo says, they could really be drumming up some positivity by talking up the potential of Brexit. It is baffling that they are not.

Instead, the over riding feeling I have is that politics in this country just hasnt been paying attention and learning their lessons. Both sides are just too entrenched in party point scoring, rather than serving the people.

I really feel like they should be paying attention to the changing tone in the electorate. Corbyn, to his credit, showed people are very willing to vote for change. I doubt his intention, I think he was just trying to get one over on the Tories, but the point remains - people want something different.

Brexit, love it or loathe it, is a huge fudging opportunity for everyone. Change is in the air, people are geared up for it - they just want a vision that appeals and proper leadership to follow. By now I would have expected some people to step forward with ideas, with intent, but it just isnt happening.

As I said, politics in this country just isnt learning...

So, it may be that we have to wait until post Brexit, a real slump - before the demand for change is heard.

And even that I find quite appealing, to be honest.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
My feelings are a mixed.

1.
As @r-u-s-x points out (potentially sarcastically) my first thought is "how do you know the unknowable?". Until we start to understand what Brexit looks like how can we possibly predict anything?

And, honestly, if they just came out and said as much I would respect that. On the basis that as possibilities narrow we really flesh these ideas/potential risks/rewards etc out.

As it is, the way they present themselves is as incompetent. Which is of course concerning without changing the underlying fact that, honestly, how are we supposed to predict what will happen?

They also manage to present themselves as not having any idea what they WANT Brexit to look like. Now, we have all seen snipets, but at no point have the specced it out. Is this negotiation strategy? Is this a genuine case they have no plan/idea? Is it, yet again, really poor communication?

I dont know, and as @milo says, they could really be drumming up some positivity by talking up the potential of Brexit. It is baffling that they are not.

Instead, the over riding feeling I have is that politics in this country just hasnt been paying attention and learning their lessons. Both sides are just too entrenched in party point scoring, rather than serving the people.

I really feel like they should be paying attention to the changing tone in the electorate. Corbyn, to his credit, showed people are very willing to vote for change. I doubt his intention, I think he was just trying to get one over on the Tories, but the point remains - people want something different.

Brexit, love it or loathe it, is a huge fudging opportunity for everyone. Change is in the air, people are geared up for it - they just want a vision that appeals and proper leadership to follow. By now I would have expected some people to step forward with ideas, with intent, but it just isnt happening.

As I said, politics in this country just isnt learning...

So, it may be that we have to wait until post Brexit, a real slump - before the demand for change is heard.

And even that I find quite appealing, to be honest.
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Firstly, yes we don' know what Brexit looks like. So what any competent person would do is produce multiple detailed impact assessments on the varous scenarios. To not do so is fudging negligent.

Secondly I grew up quite poor, not so much where we didn't have food. My mum and dad worked hard so we always had more than enough to eat. But heating was a concern at some points we didn' have 'luxuries'like a phone or a coloured tv until i was well in to my teens.

So the prospect of a major economic down turn scares me. Does it not you.
 
I couldnt care less. I know Ill survive.

I grew up poor too. I dont think a bit of hardship does people as much harm as they think, there are valuable lessons there which can lead to great things.

An economic downturn that leads to genuine change in both politics and society? Is that really a bad thing?

And yes, while it would be nice to have seen every conceivable angle covered, what then? We would have a notion that things might get worse? We have that already. Just look at this thread and every conceivable level of doom mongering it contains. Look at every piece of commentary out there. Its basically a sport at the moment.

Id like to know what that department HAS been doing, before judging how negligent they are. Its possible there has been some really good, forward thinking, work going on. Work that will impact both the negotiations and post Brexit state. That being the case, is it such a bad thing they did little more than pander to the muppets in the house with these impact assessments?

Of course, that NOT being the case, what the fudge have they been doing? Again - to me - a far more pertinent question than "why havent we got impact assessments up the wazoo?"
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
I couldnt care less. I know Ill survive.

I grew up poor too. I dont think a bit of hardship does people as much harm as they think, there are valuable lessons there which can lead to great things.

An economic downturn that leads to genuine change in both politics and society? Is that really a bad thing?

And yes, while it would be nice to have seen every conceivable angle covered, what then? We would have a notion that things might get worse? We have that already. Just look at this thread and every conceivable level of doom mongering it contains. Look at every piece of commentary out there. Its basically a sport at the moment.

Id like to know what that department HAS been doing, before judging how negligent they are. Its possible there has been some really good, forward thinking, work going on. Work that will impact both the negotiations and post Brexit state. That being the case, is it such a bad thing they did little more than pander to the muppets in the house with these impact assessments?

Of course, that NOT being the case, what the fudge have they been doing? Again - to me - a far more pertinent question than "why havent we got impact assessments up the wazoo?"
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You're making some assumptions there.

Firstly a major political and societal change may very well be for the worse not better. So no I'm not going to commit to saying it' worth it until I know at least what the vision is.

I have countered many of @Gutter Boy points on here but the truth is he sets out a vision. And to be honest its one that i think maybe worth an economic down turn to achieve.

Similarly @scaramanga sets out his vision of what can be achieved. I don' think that deregulation and letting market forces control supreme is positive. But at least he sets out a vision.

Where is the vision from those that are controlling Brexit?

Your second assumption is that proper impact assessents show there will be an economic downturn... why? And so? If Brexit is a good thing they should also include the predicted benefits.... And if there are not predicted benefits.... what the fudge are we doing?

Your third assumption is that they have been doing anything at all? And what they are doing is more important than proper impact assements. And we are supposed to take that on faith... fudge that.
 
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DTA said:
You're making some assumptions there.

Firstly a major political and societal change may very well be for the worse not better. So no I'm not going to commit to saying it' worth it until I know at least what the vision is.
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And yet for many a remainer, that exact same logic is not good enough views of the Economy(and Brexit in general). I see it as more ironic than hypocritical, but its worth pointing out none the less.

People seem very quick to believe any negative essay that comes up, yet want to 'wait and see' on a different matter?

DTA said:
Your second assumption is that proper impact assessents show there will be an economic downturn... why? And so? If Brexit is a good thing they should also include the predicted benefits.... And if there are not predicted benefits.... what the fudge are we doing?
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It was a passing comment. In reality its likely to be a mix of both, different sectors having differing fortunes.

The point is, its a piece of string argument. tinkle into the wind and see what way it blows. Far to many moving parts at this time to really get an understanding. So what exactly do you expect?

If they say itll be better there will be 1000 naysayers calling foul. If they say it will be worse its political suicide. And either way is just a punt, isnt it?

Look at the variables, at even the highest level
Soft Brexit : Economy = good? Marginally down?
Soft Brexit + no financial passport : Economy significantly down?
Hard Brexit : ITS THE END OF THE WORRRLD!!!
Hard Brexit + CETA/variant trade deal : Actually pretty good?
Hard Brexit + WTO terms : Is it actually that bad? Having factored in NOT paying into the EU budget over the long term?
...

I mean, seriously - where to even begin? What is it you are expecting to have been delivered exactly?

DTA said:
Your third assumption is that they have been doing anything at all? And what they are doing is more important than proper impact assements. And we are supposed to take that on faith... fudge that.
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I dont make such an assumption at all. I posit they MAY be doing valuable work, in which instance - does your view on the impact assessments change?
YOU assume they arent. I am categoric in saying I dont know...


Now dont get me wrong, the papers look pathetic. What I dont know is why.

As I said, if these were done just to pander to the house while the department get on with more important things - then honestly I really dont care. Storm in a tea cup. If this is the actual quality of work they are doing? Well things should get interesting pretty quick because its hilariously poor.

This is from the 'About Us' section on their site:
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union/about

Our objectives are to:
  1. lead the UK’s negotiations to leave the EU and establish a deep and special partnership between the EU and the UK;

  2. work with the devolved administrations, Parliament, EU Member States and Institutions and a wide range of other interested parties throughout the negotiations;

  3. lead and coordinate cross-government work to seize the opportunities and ensure a smooth process of exit, including the required domestic legislation, on the best possible terms;

  4. continue our work across Whitehall and in Brussels to coordinate European business, exercise our rights and meet our obligations as a member of the EU until we exit;

  5. attract and develop great people and organise ourselves flexibly to deliver our objectives efficiently and effectively.
Which does sound to me like they have plenty to be getting on with, so I hope its the former more than the latter (of course).

Of course, if you feel you can do better it seems they also have some roles available:
Perhaps that last one being open is why the papers werent up to scratch?! ;O)
 
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