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Politics, politics, politics
- Thread starter markysimmo
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SpurMeUp
Les Howe
Cheers @milo
I think its commonly understood that until March 2018, the UK could continue in the EU on previous terms. But we wouldn't be able to use our brexit position to negotiate improved EU membership terms. Post March 2018, who knows, I don't think we'd get the same deal on opt outs.
As you said previous @milo its more about how the UK could reach a position to revoke article 50. So much water under the bridge, and while only a third voted to leave, and polls suggest a rerun may not give the same result, its hard to see a way that politicians can uncover a new mandate. There needs to be a strong change in public opinion and then MPs could act. But how does that come about? If the economy falters...it will take a few years to filter down with government cuts etc for people to feel the impact..
If fact politicians are going to face serious decision making challenges. Without another vote, or more info, how can they deliver a Brexit that people want? Or even cancel it if they don't want it. Its all uncharted territory and they are making it all up as they go. Furthermore, there is lack of leadership with the government itself divided on what brexit should be, so there is no strong momentum to move decisively in one direction. Is the status quo being in brexit limbo or staying in the EU?
What is clear is that the UK economy has suffered post Brexit. Growth is significantly down on were we would be had we not had the vote. The income the government has to spend is down, the cash reserves the country had have gone. Unless the economy picks up there will be freezes on spending (cuts in real terms). On the horizon is a position of impaired trade for the UK, and no clear vision for how we develop new international trade - why aren't we engaged in this trade already as say Germany is from within the EU? So will the UK be poorer for Brexit? I think certainally, the UK is already poorer according to 14 measures outlined in the FT. Will there be an uplift once we have a blue print and maybe just maybe an exciting feasible vision for post Brexit? Yes conceivably, but we'll be starting the race 2 laps behind, with handicaps to some of our trade and international investment into the UK.
The interesting dynamic is how the EU negotiations collapse. The EU will stick to their principles. If we don't allow free movement we won't get free trade. Car manufacturers, banks etc will have to change their setups for their exports and work with the EU. Thinking ahead, when this impasse happens, where do we go from there?
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SpurMeUp
Les Howe
Wow that's a big one.
Free trade between all EU countries, their dependicies and former colonies on equal footing. Allowing and indeed encouraging them to trade with each other and beyond.
Any trade deals negotiated with outside bodies must be equal for all member states.
If we must a parliament and any kind of political union then I think the single country veto should be abolished. 5% vote against and it's dead.
The parliament should also be scaled back, numbers wise. Do we really need that many?
The parliament should be a level outwith national government, looking at issues that national government can't or won't tackle.
Unfortunately that won't happen.
A commitment to a common defence strategy and arms spending agreements.
Wider scope on infrastructure projects. Projects that will link countries together, either physically, culturally or financially.
There's a lot tbh, some of the ideas of the EU are good in principle, the euro, but badly implemented, fudged or rushed.
FOM is another , great idea until the former eastern bloc countries joined. It should have been gradually implemented for them.
That is remarkably similar to the reality of the EU. FOM was gradually implemented for the new countries, the UK chose not to take up the gradual option however.
There is no commitment on a joint defense force but there is coordination.
The EUs main areas that it imposes laws are in agriculture and fisheries, trade the environment. They are acting on things like flights, pollution etc.
Trade deals are complex. Unless you undermine your own industries, you can't simple open everything up. Especially as others are not. The US is currently doing the opposite, putting US firms first over free trade.
glasgowspur
Luka Modric
In broad terms it probably is, but the devil is in the detail I suppose.
It's to easy in my opinion for good ideas to get bogged down, shunted off course or become something totally different from what was intended just under the same name.
And that brings me back to the size of it all.
I'm Scottish, so between devolved govt, national govt and EU parliament there's 1500 elected officials. 1500, 15 fudging 00.
Trade is extremely complex, but I think that's a choice rather than a necessity.
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ac0fd7f097e_story.html?utm_term=.ad7e48edef42
Hashtag freedom for Poland
Hashtag evil EU
Hashtag Brexit not the end of the world
Hashtag Hashtag.
Hashtag freedom for Poland
Hashtag evil EU
Hashtag Brexit not the end of the world
Hashtag Hashtag.
Here is another sign that Labour is on a journey to support the softest of Brexits and even possibly backing for a second referendum.
Labour's shadow chancellor John McDonnell revealed in a private meeting today that he has reviewed the party's last manifesto to assess whether its proposals - its planned nationalisations of energy, rail and Royal Mail for example, or its desire to set up a National Investment Bank that would support small businesses and innovation - would become impossible if the UK remained in the single market or indeed inside the EU.
He told those present that very few of Labour policies would be impossible if the UK stayed in the single market as a member of EFTA (like Norway) or if Brexit were never to happen.
"That felt significant to me" said one of those at the meeting.
That said McDonnell also made clear that he and Corbyn are some way yet from announcing that Labour will become the party of the Norway model or a second referendum.
"The impression they gave was that they did not want to lead public opinion in that direction, but would go there if that is what voters signal they want in coming months."
_______________________________
It feels like the Labour leadership are slowly pivoting to soft-brexit (something like the Norway option). They are right to do it slowly, imo (if indeed that is what they are doing, I'm only guessing).
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
Their hedging their bets which is pathetic, they have no idea what they want accept to be elected.
I say that as someone who is still going to vote for corby.
I say that as someone who is still going to vote for corby.
StephenH
David Ginola
Lesser of the of the evils
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Corbyn and McDonnell know exactly what they want. They are the biggest Brexiteers in parliament (40 years, men and boys). They just have to play games to appease the Chuka Umunna faction/their north London voters
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Obviously it's never good to lose 3 members of cabinet within a few months. But I guess to some extent this one is lessoned by him not having had a portfolio and by Gavin Williamson having already replaced him as May's chief confident and enforcer.
And half the voting population...plus X amount of the 'leave' vote that don't particularly want the Rees-Mogg/Farage/Patel style utopia of the wing-nut variety. 2/3rds of Labour voters voted to remain (I'm one of them) and whilst I accept the result of the referendum and accept that we will leave the European Union, I don't want us going off the deep end like the Tory right want us to do. And plenty feel the same way.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Surely they are better effectively staying neutral? Then they haven't marginalised either half of their party. They only need to keep this dance up for another 15 months and then Brexit is done.
I doubt even the Lib Dems will campaign in 2022 for joining the EU (Schengen, Eurozone and all)
monkeybarry
Jack Jull
It's a Christmas miracle!!
milo
Jack L. Jones
I can see why they didn't want to publish them, they are very light.
monkeybarry
Jack Jull
You bothered to read them??
(Can we have a summary? Be kind - remember Brexit is good for the country)
milo
Jack L. Jones
I've skim read two of them. As the MPs who viewed them said, they are high level "as is" papers with no assessment of the impacts of different scenarios on the sector. The sector comments have been redacted by the Select Committee.
Jo Swinson made some notes on the sectoral comments and tweeted them yesterday. I'd agree with her on the quality/usefulness of the papers too
I almost hope that Davis is lying and that they created these to avoid releasing the real papers. It would be really worrying if this is all they have got to base the most important decisions facing this country in over half a century on.
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
Absolutely this. Couldn't bring myself to like the final sentence though...
