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Politics, politics, politics

Hopefully, they will make progress on transition talks, then we can end up on a Norway type deal for a transitional period, until we get to a final deal.
 
If by status quo you mean the "standard politician", I agree.

I said up thread, rather flippantly - but 100% honestly, for 20+ years I cannot for the life of me tell politicians and political parties apart. They are not Red / Blue / Yellow, rather all just shades of beige.

And they serve themselves, not the country, which is IMO criminal and should not be allowed to continue.

Which makes the whole party divide (just look at elements of this thread) rather amusing. Its like arguing whether diced onions or chopped onions are tastier.

The thing is, those alleigances were born in times when politicians actually stood for something. Wanted something. Had a plan to achieve it. A genuine ethos.

Wouldnt it be nice to get back to those days?
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
I think they are bluffing because I think it hurts them tremendously if we go for a hard Brexit.

And I think pragmatism should win out in the end.

Outside of the 4 pillars what is there to negotiate? They have effectively taken a position at this point of not negotiating.

They know full well immigration is a major reason behind Brexit, by not even entertaining it on the table they arent entertaining us at all.

Which on the face of it looks like they want us gone and thats that. Do you think thats really the case?

I really dont. I think they are just waiting to see if we flinch. If we do, they win. They get essentially what they want - we are neutered, and they still have our trade, our money and european people still have the freedom to come and go as they choose.

And given the circus that is UK politics its not hard for them to look like they are in full control of proceedings.
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What you say is true that a hard Brexit hurts them but they seem to believe that weakening the four pillars hurts them more. This is why I do not think it posturing but a position they have built on both the principle and the outcome that harms them the least.
 
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the dza said:
Hopefully, they will make progress on transition talks, then we can end up on a Norway type deal for a transitional period, until we get to a final deal.
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I think they are stretching this out as much as they can to just mount pressure on us. Both now and later on.

Once this impasse has been cleared we will want to talk about trade etc - the less time we have to do so the better for them IMO. The deadline will loom fast and they are looking at Levytime.

Id be happy right now to fall into your solution there though. Im sure when all is said and done life will go on...
 
DTA said:
Well I think it will, because of the combined size of the economies in question and the politically motivation that the eu27 will have in making sure it's anything but a success for us... like I said knife to a gun fight.

Why do you think different? considering that the financial cost to the EU27 will be paid for by the political benefits (I.e no one else leaving the EU because of what a disaster it will be for the uk.. closer union because again the uk are fudged without it.) Etc
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Indeed.
The EU will ensure they recoup any losses within the new deal and anyone else with a brain will look to recoup the knock on effects costs from us too.
As long as they produce a deal that is better than WTO and doesn't appear deliberately pejorative then they (anyone) will be fine.
If the Brexiters are right and the economy looks good post leaving then we are where the money is so counties will push to milk that.
If remainers are right and economy is weakened then we have a weak position and have to accept less than we are worth (at least short term).
Almost like relegation and demotion in the Same season.

Banking is the only real card we have to play.
 
r-u-s-x said:
What you say is true that a hard Brexit hurts them but they seem to believe that weakening the four pillars hurts them more. This is why I do not think it posturing but a position they have built on both the principle and the outcome that harms them the least.
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This will be one of those that only really comes out in the wash. Not before.

Is it bluffing? Or Dogma? We wont know for a while yet.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
If by status quo you mean the "standard politician", I agree.

I said up thread, rather flippantly - but 100% honestly, for 20+ years I cannot for the life of me tell politicians and political parties apart. They are not Red / Blue / Yellow, rather all just shades of beige.

And they serve themselves, not the country, which is IMO criminal and should not be allowed to continue.

Which makes the whole party divide (just look at elements of this thread) rather amusing. Its like arguing whether diced onions or chopped onions are tastier.

The thing is, those alleigances were born in times when politicians actually stood for something. Wanted something. Had a plan to achieve it. A genuine ethos.

Wouldnt it be nice to get back to those days?
Click to expand...


Indeed, they are all " sound bites" " expensive suits" " polished teeth" " false smiles" etc, etc.

I had to laugh when lots of folks suggested that Corbyn would NEVER stand a chance of winning the leadership, a man of priciples, no thousand pound suits, no visits to have his hair coiffure, and all the other flimflam that leaders MP's do to get on the box.

I was hoping that folks would open their eyes and see the groundswell of change to another form of politics but it still seems a hopeless wish.
 
As I said, Im no Corbyn fan, but I do think he is the first of his kind in many a year - and that he will herald more like him.

In that, being principled and driven will get people noticed, and hopefully make things happen.
 
parklane1 said:
Indeed, they are all " sound bites" " expensive suits" " polished teeth" " false smiles" etc, etc.

I had to laugh when lots of folks suggested that Corbyn would NEVER stand a chance of winning the leadership, a man of priciples, no thousand pound suits, no visits to have his hair coiffure, and all the other flimflam that leaders MP's do to get on the box.

I was hoping that folks would open their eyes and see the groundswell of change to another form of politics but it still seems a hopeless wish.
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I think it's opened the eyes.
The problem is you have all the other politicians and press who keep shutting the curtains.
The successor to Corbyn is key to any potential sustained change in politicians. If they doesn't happen I genuinely don't know where we go from there.
 
monkeybarry said:
I think it's opened the eyes.
The problem is you have all the other politicians and press who keep shutting the curtains.
The successor to Corbyn is key to any potential sustained change in politicians. If they doesn't happen I genuinely don't know where we go from there.
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The successor to Corbyn will be from the left of the Labour Party, I am almost certain of that. The reason I and many others joined the Labour Party was to back Corbyn and the left in the event of the inevitable stitch-ups by the Blairites (I joined as a full member after he won the first leadership contest, paying £3 to vote for him initially). They had their attempted coup and the members told them to phuck off. Since then, the election has been and gone and Corbyn is solidly in charge -- more than that, the left have taken a majority on Labour's NEC and the delegates selected to go to the Labour Party conference, representing their constituency parties, were pro-Corbyn/the left by a big majority. This has led to rule changes, such as only 10% of the Parliamentary Labour Party required to back a candidate for leadership (previously 15%) as well as appointing more elected persons to the NEC (who will be elected by the membership and thus pro Corbyn).

The left have got organised and have/are taking control of the party machinery. We all know the only strategy the Blairites have now is to be quiet and wait for Corbyn to go away, hoping the left will go with him. Not going to happen anytime soon imo, regardless of what happens to Corbyn.

Hopefully, Richard Leonard will win the Scottish Labour leadership contest and then Scottish Labour will start to get it's act together with a proper left-winger in charge, as opposed to the dross of Jim Murphy followed by Dugdale. If so, I predict Labour to come back strong in Scotland, at least when it comes to Westminster elections.

Change is here to stay... for the time being at least!
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
As I said, Im no Corbyn fan, but I do think he is the first of his kind in many a year - and that he will herald more like him.

In that, being principled and driven will get people noticed, and hopefully make things happen.
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I think he's more the last of his kind. He's pushing 70 and is the last remaining disciple of Tony Benn.

I sort of agree though that authenticity politics will be the new big thing. Look at Mogg too - there's no 'call me Jake'/destroy my Oxbridge dining photos with him - people actually like his unrepentant poshness.

I like a lot of Corbyn - his authenticity, commitment to nationalistion and anti-EUism. But I can't help but feel that his further solution are old - it's about retaking ownership of the means of production for the masses (which is good), but then he doesn't have the vision to see what to do with that in a post-industrial world. A lot of his ideals about full work/work being the purpose of life are based on early twentieth-century ideals. That isn't the world of now and the coming decades where we need to slow production and cut work.
 
GB -thats essentially my point.

He is old school, in practice and thought. The practice I like, the thought not so much.

BUT - that approach hasnt been seen for a long time and is very refreshing - and I think he has "broken the seal" on it to allow other politicians to follow suit.
 
the dza said:
The successor to Corbyn will be from the left of the Labour Party, I am almost certain of that. The reason I and many others joined the Labour Party was to back Corbyn and the left in the event of the inevitable stitch-ups by the Blairites.

!
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Do you have any thoughts re; potential candidates?
 
monkeybarry said:
Do you have any thoughts re; potential candidates?
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Nothing concrete for me as to who I think is next in line. I've always quite liked Clive Lewis and I don't mind Angela Rayner. As long as they are sincere and want to deliver policies that I agree with, that's all the really counts for me (as in getting me to vote for them). You can grow into a leadership role, as Corbyn has shown, so I'm not too concerned with a polished performer. Someone else could yet come into focus who I'm not paying attention to currently.

I never paid my initial £3 expecting that Corbyn would be PM. I saw it as a necessary reset, to put the "left" back into "centre-left." I always assumed that he'd be a place-holder, to lay a foundation that someone else would then come and build on. The General Election changed it and amongst the many factors behind Labour's large share of the vote (Remain voters, May's terrible campaigning) I do think that, once the broadcast media were legally obliged to be more balanced in coverage (election rules) and once Labour's manifesto came out, people in general were more willing to give Corbyn's Labour a fair hearing. Corbyn always maintained that he could get people who didn't vote to come out and vote for Labour and we saw this with a much increased youth turnout, that turned places like Canterbury from Tory to Labour.

Nothing is set in stone, a lot can happen between now and the next election. As things stand though, Labour has a lead of 2 points across the polls (margin of error of 1%, so some polls show a tie, some 3 or 4 point Labour lead) and that'd make Labour the largest party and forming the next government, be that minority or a coalition. A remarkable turnaround from just a few months ago and no small feat considering the opposition from media, the right of the Labour Party as well as the actual opponents in government.
 
the dza said:
Nothing concrete for me as to who I think is next in line. I've always quite liked Clive Lewis and I don't mind Angela Rayner. As long as they are sincere and want to deliver policies that I agree with, that's all the really counts for me (as in getting me to vote for them). You can grow into a leadership role, as Corbyn has shown, so I'm not too concerned with a polished performer. Someone else could yet come into focus who I'm not paying attention to currently.

I never paid my initial £3 expecting that Corbyn would be PM. I saw it as a necessary reset, to put the "left" back into "centre-left." I always assumed that he'd be a place-holder, to lay a foundation that someone else would then come and build on. The General Election changed it and amongst the many factors behind Labour's large share of the vote (Remain voters, May's terrible campaigning) I do think that, once the broadcast media were legally obliged to be more balanced in coverage (election rules) and once Labour's manifesto came out, people in general were more willing to give Corbyn's Labour a fair hearing. Corbyn always maintained that he could get people who didn't vote to come out and vote for Labour and we saw this with a much increased youth turnout, that turned places like Canterbury from Tory to Labour.

Nothing is set in stone, a lot can happen between now and the next election. As things stand though, Labour has a lead of 2 points across the polls (margin of error of 1%, so some polls show a tie, some 3 or 4 point Labour lead) and that'd make Labour the largest party and forming the next government, be that minority or a coalition. A remarkable turnaround from just a few months ago and no small feat considering the opposition from media, the right of the Labour Party as well as the actual opponents in government.
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Lewis comes across as very personable, but is maybe a bit too casual in his style (he can get a bit like a giddy schoolboy at times). He's also a strong remainer, which won't go down well with the left.

I think Rayner is too thick. She really struggles with the basics of education policy, which is supposed to be her brief. I tend to see her as one of those promoted for her loyalty, rather than her capabilities.
 
15 billion between 27 countries....not such a big deal. You also need to subtract the billions the EU spends on the UK.
 
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