Politics, politics, politics

[Parklaner81]

I'm fairly sure (and a little hopeful) that the general public isn't stupid enough to carry a protest vote all the way through to government like they did in the US.

They also gave a fairly resounding verdict when the prospect of a Labour/SNP coalition was considered realistic in 2015 which, unlike in this election, would again be considered a realistic potential outcome next time.

 

[milo]

I can be certain that, despite their demands, the DUP will do all they can to keep Corbyn and McDonnel out of power.

I think that they will but they will also keep coming back asking for more money because they know that they have the Tories by the short and curlies.

 

[milo]

They also gave a fairly resounding verdict when the prospect of a Labour/SNP coalition was considered realistic in 2015 which, unlike in this election, would again be considered a realistic potential outcome next time.

That was a different point in the election cycle and it would be pretty hard for the Conservatives to run a coalition of chaos scare campaign again.

 

[scaramanga]

Oddly, I don't think it's the DUP that will rock the boat, unless there are legal complications from the Good Friday Agreement. IMO, the potential comes from the divisions in the Tory party over Brexit, more so when things start coming back to Parliament to be scrutinised/voted on.

I agree, May won't be the leader come a general election. But there is no guarantee that they will choose someone better. Most of the potential candidates are either freaks, awful or freakishly awful.

For the yanks and Trump, see us and Brexit. Only, in 4 years, they can vote Trump out if they don't fancy it anymore. If, in 4 years, Brexit turns out to be bad for us (and I'm not saying it will, before all the leavers start crying) then we are still out. So the British can/will take a punt just like anybody else.

Hopefully, May will do enough damage to the Tory party that they won't recover in time for the next election.

I don't think that analogy works.

Brexit wasn't a protest vote, it wasn't an anti-government vote. It was the same people, who have been deeply suspicious of and unhappy with the EU for decades finally getting a say in it.

A Corbyn vote is just people saying the same as they did in the US - that they don't like the government but don't have a fudging clue about providing a proper alternative so they go for the most anti-government candidate they can find.

 

[milo]

Brexit wasn't a protest vote, it wasn't an anti-government vote. It was the same people, who have been deeply suspicious of and unhappy with the EU for decades finally getting a say in it.

I don't agree with that. I agree that some people voted for Brexit because they were unhappy with the EU but I think that there were also a lot of people who were voting against "the establishment". Cameron gave the electorate a big "fudge you" button and a load of people decided to push it.

 

[scaramanga]

I think that they will but they will also keep coming back asking for more money because they know that they have the Tories by the short and curlies.

Ridiculously underplayed hand by the Conservatives again.

The DUP would die before they put people like Corbyn and McDonnell in power. There was no need to give nearly as much away as they did.

 

[Parklaner81]

That was a different point in the election cycle and it would be pretty hard for the Conservatives to run a coalition of chaos scare campaign again.

The potential combination of Jezza Corbyn and a party hell bent on breaking up the United Kingdom? No matter what their own situation may be, they'll give it a good go...

 

[scaramanga]

I don't agree with that. I agree that some people voted for Brexit because they were unhappy with the EU but I think that there were also a lot of people who were voting against "the establishment". Cameron gave the electorate a big "fudge you" button and a load of people decided to push it.

I haven't heard that opinion from anyone yet.

I've heard a lot of reasons why people dislike the EU, but never that it was the establishment option.

 

[parklane1]

I don't agree with that. I agree that some people voted for Brexit because they were unhappy with the EU but I think that there were also a lot of people who were voting against "the establishment". Cameron gave the electorate a big "fudge you" button and a load of people decided to push it.

Well i know a lot of folks who voted to come out and i can assure none of them did so on a" anti establishment box".

 

[milo]

Ridiculously underplayed hand by the Conservatives again.

The DUP would die before they put people like Corbyn and McDonnell in power. There was no need to give nearly as much away as they did.

There was no need for any deal at all. The DUP would have supported the Queen's Speech, Brexit and Budget anyway. The Tories have just taken a reputational hit and tied themselves to a more politically astute partner, who know that the Conservatives cannot allow it to fail, so will give in to any further demands.

 

[milo]

Well i know a lot of folks who voted to come out and i can assure none of them did so on a" anti establishment box".

I didn't say that you or your friends voted to leave for that reason but there is substantial evidence that some people did.

 

[milo]

I haven't heard that opinion from anyone yet.

I've heard a lot of reasons why people dislike the EU, but never that it was the establishment option.

A lot of the polling and focus group results post referendum show that some people saw it as a chance to hit back at a Westminster that, they felt, had ignored them. From memory this was particularly true in the north east.

I will see if I can find some of the reports on this.

 

[parklane1]

I didn't say that you or your friends voted to leave for that reason but there is substantial evidence that some people did.

Well i have never seen enough evidence to suggest that is why the majority voted for out. Of course there are bound to have been a few but they were in the minority from the what i have seen, read, or heard.

You may know some though as i have said before folks wanted change from what they have lived under for years. Not sure you could call that a anti establishment box though. Just sick to death off being brick on by the pact of the EU.

 

[milo]

Well i have never seen enough evidence to suggest that is why the majority voted for out. Of course there are bound to have been a few but they were in the minority from the what i have seen, read, or heard.

You may know some though.

I don't think it was why the majority of leave voters voted the way they did. It may have been the difference between leave winning and losing the referendum though.

 

[parklane1]

I don't think it was why the majority of leave voters voted the way they did. It may have been the difference between leave winning and losing the referendum though.

It may have done, but you could say the out vote would have been bigger if SOME who voted remain were not voting for the "establishment" box reguardless of the reasons for the vote.

More likely neither on those two sides would/did have a major say on the result.

 

[milo]

It may have done, but you could say the out vote would have been bigger if SOME who voted remain were not voting for the "establishment" box reguardless of the reasons for the vote.

More likely neither on those two sides would/did have a major say on the result.

I haven't seen any evidence for that being a substantial reason for people voting remain. Like I said, I will try and find the research.

 

[Grays_1890]

I don't agree with that. I agree that some people voted for Brexit because they were unhappy with the EU but I think that there were also a lot of people who were voting against "the establishment". Cameron gave the electorate a big "fudge you" button and a load of people decided to push it.

I'm not sure you give people enough credit? Voting out the EU was still a vote for Conservatives because they were still going to be in government and I would nver buy people voting out in hope to rid themselves of Cameron and then forcing another election, I am with Scara on this.

The vote was simple, vote in or out the EU and I everyone getting the vote only knew what it was like to be in the EU so its not inconceivable for half to think their circumstances were so bad that being out the EU might work for them, if not they lost little.

 

[Grays_1890]

A lot of the polling and focus group results post referendum show that some people saw it as a chance to hit back at a Westminster.

What was the sample size of these? I am always interested because usually they are in the lower 10s of thousands

 

[monkeybarry]

 

[milo]

What was the sample size of these? I am always interested because usually they are in the lower 10s of thousands

Like, I've said, I will try and dig them out. I read them months ago, so couldn't tell you of the sample size off the top of my head.