milo
Jack L. Jones
Being the second party in the Scottish Parliament, you would expect so and Ruth Davidson is very good. I would expect the Lib Dems to pick up one or two too.
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Politics, politics, politics
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
Being the second party in the Scottish Parliament, you would expect so and Ruth Davidson is very good. I would expect the Lib Dems to pick up one or two too.
milo
Jack L. Jones
@scaramanga that said, if it is seen as voting for May rather than Davidson it may be harder for them to make inroads in Scotland.
I think that May's appeal outside certain parts of England is limited and this may be the barrier to a landslide. It is hard to see the Tories picking up any seats in major cities and you would expect them to lose quite a few metropolitan seats that they hold. The key to the size of the majority will be how many seats can the Tories gain in the north of England.
It's no more than a gut feeling but I imagine the "Brexit means Brexit" message will play quite well up there.
milo
Jack L. Jones
I don't think May will though. I think that they will try and keep May away from Scotland for that reason.
I am not familiar with the leave vote by constituency in Scotland and how this correlates with support for the union. The Tories probably need both in a seat and a decent amount of existing support to break through. It is difficult to gauge how unionists will feel towards May right now, given that her approach to Brexit is a major threat to the Union. I think going back on her pledge to consult the devolved governments on the approach towards Brexit will hamper them outside England.
Sorry, by up there I meant t'north
milo
Jack L. Jones
The Tories already hold quite a few rural northern seats, I am not sure that they will be able to make the inroads into the industrial north. I think that turnout will be low, so it might come down to who stays away in bigger numbers.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Places like North Yorkshire are completely Tory (other than York city, which is Lib Dem).
There's a big city/shire divide. The Tories have almost all of England, other than the core cities (Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham and Saudi Sportswashing Machine), whilst London and Bristol are nearer 50:50. But population wise the core cities only make up about 8m people of a voting population of 38m.
Low turnout favours Tories as the people that do always turnout is the grey vote.
milo
Jack L. Jones
I know. The question is, can the Tories make inroads into the industrial north? They are going to need to if they are going to get a big majority.
"We'll save your jobs from all those stinking, filthy immigrants"
"The reason your pay is so low is those immigrants"
"Aren't you fed up of sitting on a bus and not hearing the English language?"
"The reason your kids can't get a house is immigrants"
"The reason you have to queue at A&E is immigrants"
Etc, etc, etc.
milo
Jack L. Jones
How hard can the Tories push that message without risk of losing some of the 42% of Conservative voters who voted remain?
I think that re-running the Smethwick '64 campaign would be a mistake and would backfire.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I think a lot voted remain reluctantly out of trust/loyalty to Cameron and because of project fear. I don't think you will find many/any EU flag waving Tories. The exceptions perhaps being west London and parts of Bristol.
milo
Jack L. Jones
I disagree. I think that there are plenty of liberal Tories who naturally support EU membership. Much of their support from business is pro-EU too.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ants-conservative-mps-to-help-write-manifesto
Conservative MPs have been asked to submit ideas to No 10 for Theresa May’s first election manifesto, with some of those trying to keep their seats in remain-supporting areas asking for explicit mention of the need to seek a trade deal with the EU.
___________
This just made me think of Hugh, Olly and Glen in the back of a taxi, trying to come up with policy ideas.
"National spare room database? That's sh1t isn't it?"
Conservative MPs have been asked to submit ideas to No 10 for Theresa May’s first election manifesto, with some of those trying to keep their seats in remain-supporting areas asking for explicit mention of the need to seek a trade deal with the EU.
___________
This just made me think of Hugh, Olly and Glen in the back of a taxi, trying to come up with policy ideas.
"National spare room database? That's sh1t isn't it?"
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
I will admit that Corbyn is the most likeable leader in a general election i can ever remember.
Still not keen on his policies though some are not bad. But he is a decent human being.
Still not keen on his policies though some are not bad. But he is a decent human being.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I'd've voted for Tony Benn, but Corbyn doesn't have the vision or spine to back-up his integrity.
Also the power behind the throne though is John McDonnell, who is probably the most unpalatable politician in the country
Baleforce
Arthur Rowe
indeed, I voted Conservative and then remain
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Did you use to whistle Ode to Joy in the shower, or did the liberal leavers' unholy coalition with kipper voters and their fears put you off?